wolfie09

A weak mid level trough in the 925-700MB layer is stretching from central Lake Ontario to Allegany County late this evening. Forcing and convergence along the trough axis combined with a narrow plume of more favorable moisture along and ahead of it continue to support clusters of strong thunderstorms. Instability is starting to drop with the onset of evening cooling of the boundary layer, although forcing and advection just ahead of the trough will still maintain enough instability to support thunder through about 06Z as these clusters of storms move into the eastern Lake Ontario region. Some of the cores have become strong at times and capable of producing small hail, gusty winds, and very heavy downpours. Overall trends suggest a low, but non-zero risk of severe weather as they move east through the midnight hour. Western NY has already cleared out, and this clearing trend will move east overnight.

3k through tomorrow.. Hopefully we can run into one of these storms lol

The remnants of a system across the Great Lakes will spread clouds into the area overnight and toward Sunday morning. Some accompanying decaying rain showers will be possible, however coverage should be minimal at best. The mid-level vort and associated short wave passage are a bit faster on the 12z guidance than previous runs. This will get the best PVA past most of WNY before destabilization starts to occur in the afternoon ahead of the wave. Thus the best PoPs were centered from the interior Southern Tier toward Lewis County with almost no chance of afternoon rainfall in the areas inside the lake breezes. What convection does develop will have about 30 kts of shear on northwesterly flow aloft and 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE to work with. Thus, a couple of the storms could get a bit burly right as they exit the area eastward into the NWS Binghamton`s area. As the short wave transitions eastward on Sunday night, things will rapidly wind down and drier air again enters the picture. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A shortwave trough over Northwestern Ontario Monday morning will track east into northern New England by Monday night. Showers are possible in the morning across western NY as upstream weakening convection tracks towards the region. Daytime heating and steepening lapse rates will increase the risk of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. A cold front across Northwestern Ontario and the Central Great Lakes will approach during the day and likely track across the region overnight into Tuesday. Scattered showers and isolated storms are possible but the most notably feature with this front is the cold air behind it. A trough will settle across the region Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will begin a period of below normal temperatures into mid-week. High temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 70s Monday, falling to the 50s Monday night. High temperatures Tuesday will be slightly below normal with highs in the low to mid 70s, falling to the upper 40s to low 50s Tuesday night.

Yup and it's not looking any better, at least for parts of the Eastern lake ontario region..

Decent discrepancy regarding Mondays thermal profile..

Same could be said for pulaski, Average to slightly below, it's going to feel nice either way, now the 3 days around this time period is above average lol Monday A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 74. West wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Monday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 55. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 72. Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 51. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 70. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 51. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 55.

While it will feel much better than the last week or two, I'm not seeing much "below" normal temps forecasted.. KSYR for example average is in the mid 70s and only 1 day(Wednesday) is forecast below that, it's more of an average week with a day or two above/below over the next 7.. At this point I'm happy with Average temps lol

One batch to my north, another one heading south, go figure lol

Yeah not even sure what the hell those are lmao I know they tend to be bad in new England, especially Maine..For the most part we just deal with your typical house fly, huge horseflies and biting midges which suck lol

I usually just stick with the Hrrr for SR temps, it's usually pretty accurate.. This was at 12z.. Last update Kbuf 84° KART 74° KSYR 80° Those are for 2pm, hrrr is 3pm.. It has my backyard at 81°..

Cool and cloudy so far this morning, 67° with DPs in the mid 50s and humidity in check at the moment.. Forecast high is 74°..

Model temps are all over the map for tomorrow, anywhere from the mid 60s to near 80°..

I would be in favor of this.. The College Football Playoff management committee will consider expanding the current four-team field to a 12-team format when it meets in Chicago next week, marking the first step in what could be another historic change for the sport's postseason. https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/31604970/college-football-playoff-consider-expanding-12-team-format

Not much to complain about today, 80° feels so much better without the humidity that's for certain lol

Almost brings a tear to the eye..

Yup finally a bit of relief, it's been a while since we dropped into the 50s lol Made it down to 54°, currently 66°, DP 55° and humidity down to 60%..

Still pretty hot here with high DPs.. Forecast busted a couple degrees to low..

For the second consecutive day we start to torch during the 2nd half of the afternoon.. Yesterday it was in the low-mid 70s all day until 4-5 pm when the sun came out, hit 81° for the high.. Today we have been stuck in the low-mid 70s most of the day under cloud cover, sun has since come out and temps have risen above 80° once again..

About a 4 day "cool" spell on the gfs before we go back to Average like temps..

The long term period will be fairly active with the overall pattern featuring a few different mid/upper level troughs that will cause showers and the potential for thunderstorms. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be on Sunday, but each day during the long term has at least slight chance POPs in place with the overall lack of high pressure/ridging over the region. Guidance suggests general larger scale troughing develops early next week over the Great Lakes and Northeast as a large area of high pressure and ridging dominate the western half of the country. The building trough over the Northeast will continue the active pattern, and bring cooler and less humid conditions compared to what is occurring this week.

Small earthquake in Jersey this morning. Earthquakes are not necessarily unusual in the state; Wednesday's temblor was the fourth in the last 12 months, per government data. According to the state's Department of Environmental Protection, New Jersey is actually considered overdue for a moderate earthquake, much like the magnitude 5.5 quake that hit in 1884.

More than 50 national touring shows will be presented at the NYS Fair’s Chevrolet Music Festival, the largest free music festival at any state fair in America. Twenty-three shows have been confirmed so far, with more announcements expected in the coming weeks. 2021 New York State Fair concert lineup LOCASH — Friday, Aug. 20 (Time TBA) Nas — Friday, Aug. 20 at 8 p.m. 98 Degrees — Saturday, Aug. 21 at 2 p.m. Ratt — Saturday, Aug. 21 (Time TBA) Brothers Osborne — Sunday, Aug. 22 at 8 p.m. Bishop Briggs — Monday, Aug. 23 (Time TBA) Foreigner — Monday, Aug. 23 at 8 p.m. DSL* Dire Straits Legacy — Tuesday, Aug. 24 (Time TBA) Train — Tuesday, Aug. 24 at 8 p.m. Russell Dickerson — Wednesday, Aug. 25 (Time TBA) REO Speedwagon — Wednesday, Aug. 25 at 8 p.m. Three Dog Night — Thursday, Aug. 26 (Time TBA) Sister Sledge — Friday, Aug. 27, at 2 p.m. Melissa Etheridge — Friday, Aug. 27, at 8 p.m. Vixen and Great White — Saturday, Aug. 28 (Time TBA) Noah Cyrus — Sunday, Aug. 29 at 2 p.m. Southside Johnny & The Asbury Jukes — Sunday, Aug. 29 at 2 p.m. (Time TBA) Dropkick Murphys — Sunday, Aug. 29 at 8 p.m. The Oak Ridge Boys — Tuesday, Aug. 31 at 2 p.m. Halestorm — Tuesday, Aug. 31 at 8 p.m. Sheena Easton — Wednesday, Sept. 1 at 2 p.m. Blue Oyster Cult — Wednesday, Sept. 1 (Time TBA) Starship featuring Mickey Thomas — Thursday, Sept. 2 (Time TBA)

Gauge back up and running, some more steady rain moving in.. Clouds and showers keeping the temp down, currently 72°, yesterday the forecast had low 80s, now it's mid 70..

RIP Jim fassel https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/31587569/former-new-york-giants-head-coach-jim-fassel-dies-71