wolfie09

Hrrr

It's crazy how big the Adirondack state park really is..Kind of out of left field lol It would take these five national parks added together to equal the size of the Adirondack Park: Yellowstone, Grand Canyon, Yosemite, Everglades, and Great Smoky National Parks.. The Adirondack Park is larger than any of the seven smallest states in the United States: Hawaii, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Delaware, Rhode Island, and New Jersey.

Tonight, the potential for showers will continue as the upper level low induces cyclonic flow over the region, and the shortwave trough passes over the WNY area. The greatest chance for shower activity will be near and over the western portion of Lake Ontario, down toward Lake Erie. Low temps tonight will be in the mid 50s to low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The core of an upper level low north of the Great Lakes this morning should be dropping south and over WNY or Lake Erie by Friday morning. This type of pattern will feature light flow through the atmospheric column, but not particularly abundant moisture (precipitable water nearing 1.00" or near average for this time of year). Forecast soundings support enough buoyancy for the development showers and possible thunderstorms as the coldest core aloft moves overhead. However, convection should not be particularly strong. The slow moving nature may be of some concern for localized heavy rain though.

Euro fwiw..

Hopefully we see some action on Friday..

Front inching closer, should be a nice night to open the windows once the DPs lower a little more..

Long shot but if the WAR is stronger and closer to the coast we could sneak in some tropical moisture lol Long ways out obviously..

Showers chances will diminish some, but linger well into Thursday night as the upper cutoff low continues its descent into the Lower Great Lakes. However, guidance begins to show larger discrepancies with the track of this low as it approaches the region Friday morning. The latest 12z ECMWF/GGEM solutions have the low taking a sharp right turn and passing eastward over central NY, while the GFS/NAM depict the low continuing to drift southward, taking on a more southeasterly track as it moves across PA Friday evening. Regardless, the close proximity of the low and associated surface wave should lead to the majority of the area seeing scattered shower activity on Friday. Best chances for precip will still lie across eastern portions of the area, from the Finger Lakes region up through the Western Dacks

Some tropical activity on the GFS...

We were pretty much the"transition" zone as more waves of LP will form the next couple of days..

From a potential rainy week to pretty much nothing lol I recorded 0.12" during the week..I can't complain to much as I have 3.10" on the month which is more than a lot of other places..Few sprinkles yesterday and a few sprinkles today..Can't wait till fall with more organized rain systems and lake effect rain, I hate relying on this pop up shit..

Shower and thunderstorm coverage is increasing ahead of an incoming wave. Hodographs suggest straight line wind damage would be the most preferential mode as MUCAPE values surge over 1500 J/kg with bulk shear values jump up toward 45 kts. Large scale ascent in an area of DPVA through the area with a backbuilding upper jet streak right entrance region parked overhead. This will give a nice large scale push to harness the instability and generate fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. SPC has issued a severe thunderstorm watch from Chautauqua County to Cayuga County and all points south in New York for this. The aforementioned system surges southeastward this evening, which should bring to a close our severe weather chances. Cooler air aloft under northwest flow may still allow for some showers, however.

Tiny bit of purple showing up..

Warning out for that cell.. .A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM EDT FOR NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY... At 1145 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Lysander, or near Baldwinsville, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. Locations impacted include... Clay, Cicero, Lysander, Baldwinsville, North Syracuse, Bridgeport, Brewerton, Plainville, Bayberry and Euclid.

Much cooler so far today with temps in the upper 70s, yesterday at this time they were in the upper 80s..DP still on the high side (72°) , cloudy and breezy.. Decent cell in the southern part of the county.. Hearing a little bit of thunder from it..

Once that front gets through winds will flip from south to westerly..

Kbuf going with 7 straight days of 70s Imby Wether that actually verifies is another story lol

Newark is the sizzlecuse of jersey that's for sure lol

Glen Frey would be proud of our weather today as the heat is on over WNY and CNY. Widespread mid 90s to lower 100s are present for heat index values all along the Lake Erie shore, even inside the lake breeze boundary, through the Niagara Frontier, across the northern Finger Lakes, and all the way to the southeast end of Lake Ontario. As of 2 PM, Clifton Springs, Burt, and Niagara Falls were all surpassing 100 degrees, and a plethora of other locations are poised to do likewise in the next hour or two. This makes this the warmest day of the recent heat wave over the area. But with abundant heat and humidity, well defined lake breeze boundaries, and cumulus initiation with 20-25 kts of bulk shear, convection is beginning to develop. PWAT values are up toward 2 inches and shear is weak, so areas that do see activity will likely get some heavy rain. Likewise, even with a fairly marginal shear field, instability is quite abundant on a day like today, so pulse activity could result in a bit of gustiness from the most burly of the cells that develop. Another sultry night is in store as convective debris advects into the area overnight from dying convection over the upper Great Lakes. This combined with an incoming short wave trough will increase cloud cover and lift progressively from west to east going into Wednesday morning. An upper jet streak looks to backbuild over southern Ontario on Wednesday with the area firmly in its right entrance region. The short wave trough looks to pass WNY roughly 15z and exit the southeastern part of the area around 21z. MUCAPE values ahead of it maximize in the early afternoon around 1500 J/kg with associated 35-45kt of bulk shear allowing for better organization on Wednesday. SPC has placed most of the area in a marginal risk with the southeastern fringe in a slight risk. This seems reasonable as the short wave will be passing most of WNY before diurnal heating processes really can get convective activity going. Nonetheless, this will be the best shot the entire area has seen in some time to experience a widespread rainfall, which in many areas, is still very welcome.

Hit or miss storms the next couple days..

We have a chance today, need a couple degrees for an official heat wave..lol

A sfc low tracking east across Quebec will drag a trailing cold front southeast across the area late on Wednesday afternoon. Out ahead of the front, moist, unstable air will provide for showers and thunderstorms. A pre-frontal trough moving through the region from west to east during the mid-morning into the early afternoon time frame looks like the best timing for showers and thunderstorms. Behind this pre-frontal trough and ahead of the cold front, additional showers and storms will be possible, but it looks like instability will be decrease behind the passing trough. SB CAPE values through the early afternoon of 2,000+ J/kg are looking possible for inland areas of the Western Southern Tier, and the Northern Finger Lakes. For the rest of the area south of Lake Ontario, CAPE values of around 1,000 J/kg are likely. With a WSW to SW wind, areas downwind of both lakes can expect the typical lake shadow, reducing the potential for showers/storms. Instability combined with elevated shear values (especially the 0-6 km shear), will provide for the chance for thunderstorms to develop with at least a few causing gusty winds and small hail. Showers and thunderstorms will also cause periods of heavier rain at times with PWAT`s approaching 2.00". The entire area is under a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms (from SPC), with a smaller area of the Western Southern Tier and Northern Finger Lakes under a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms. There is a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall (from WPC) on Wednesday. Temperatures on Wednesday will be in the low to mid 80s. Any remaining showers and thunderstorms will taper off during the early evening on Wednesday from northwest to southeast with the passing cold front, and the reduction to diurnal heating. Some timing differences among guidance still for the frontal passage and strength, but all guidance indicates tapering off of shower activity through the evening. Cooler air will start to infiltrate the area, resulting in low temps in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Weak sauce when the boundary comes through but enhanced when it hits the coast lol (multiple waves)

We aren't even at peak heating yet lol Next month is hotter.. We hit 90° here for the 4th time this year, all coming in June and ranging between 90°-91°..