wolfie09

So it looks like broad HP off the eastern seaboard prevents the next front from moving much lol Obviously plenty of time to iron this out..

Starting to see a bit more activity..

Sun has come back out here, temp up to 86.5°, Real feel 94°..

Special weather statement RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK... Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and will move across the area through early evening. Across the Niagara Frontier, including the Buffalo metro area, scattered storms will bring a lower but still some risk for severe weather. This will primarily be between 1 and 4 p.m. There`s a greater risk for severe weather across the Western Southern Tier, Genesee Valley, Western Finger Lakes, and eastern Lake Ontario regions. The greatest risk for severe weather at these locations will be between 2 and 6 p.m. Damaging winds will be the primary threat associated with these thunderstorms. Large hail is also possible, in addition to brief torrential rainfall and dangerous cloud to ground lightning. If you have outdoor plans this afternoon into early this evening, keep a close eye on forecasts and warnings. Have a plan to move to a sturdy shelter if threatening weather approaches your location.

This mornings storm that rolled through peaked at 1.63" per hr, obviously it did not last long.. Earlier this month a storm peaked at 3" per hour which also didn't last that long lol We have just under 2.4" for the month..

Next 7 days WPC QPF..

Sunny here, up to 80°, DPs in the low 70s, bit of a breeze..

Still a slight risk of an isolated tornado..

I think you need a subscription to"loop" it but you can manually go through it.. https://weather.us/radar-us/erie/reflectivity-composite/KBUF_20210621-070200z.html

Well it's not alone, at least for the buff metro area lol Potential for a wet pattern is shown on all guidance..

Wet enough? Lol

Do it all over again this weekend.. Latest model trends have come into better agreement on the majority of the day Friday remaining dry. Model guidance is still showing discrepancies regarding the strength and timing of a cold front stemming from a wave of surface low pressure ahead of a slow moving trough. This feature is expected to produce showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, with shower chances increasing west to east overnight Friday. The slow moving trough and frontal zone look to be fed by ample GOMEX moisture, which will aid in bringing beneficial rains to the area. Long range guidance is in relatively good agreement with several waves of low pressure riding along the boundary. Though specifics can`t be pinned down this far out, this may act to slow the progression of the boundary and keep rain chances lingering well into Sunday.

We had a storm roll through around 6:30 am, dropped a quick 0.37" of rain, now we wait for any potential squall line later this afternoon..

Disgusting out lol Still 70° at almost midnight, RH up to 80%..

Rgem

Pretty hot out today, 83° for the high but with RH at 50% and DPs 60°, doesn't feel to bad .

The more significant severe weather risk is for Monday afternoon through early evening. It looks like most of the area will be in the warm sector dry slot Monday morning, but then storms will develop along a pre-frontal trough around mid- day and move west to east across the area. There`s a significant risk for bowing segments as these storms, with embedded supercells and even isolated tornados possible based on the strong wind shear which will be in place. The area of greatest concern is roughly east of a Jamestown to Rochester to Watertown line since trough will move through later in the day when there`s more instability in place. Lake shadowing may also lower (but not eliminate) the risk for strong thunderstorms across the Niagara Frontier. PWATs will also increase to around 2 inches, with dew points approaching 70F. This will make it feel very moist and uncomfortable, and also will pose the risk for heavy rainfall in any thunderstorms. Storms should be moving, which will limit the potential flooding, but flash ponding is a threat with flooding possible if any training occurs. Greatest rainfall amount are expected east of Lake Ontario where the system will be moving a bit slower. Winds will also be gusty outside of the thunderstorms. NAM BUFKIT shows well aligned flow, with the potential for gusts to 50 mph across the Niagara Frontier on Monday. Peak gusts will depend on how much clearing occurs during the day since the sunshine would allow for better mixing.

Hrrr would be a nice soaking for most..

Some SR guidance for Monday..

Decent cell rolling through Oswego county, on the northern extent here, few rumbles of thunder and some decent lightning..

Wpc going with 1.5"-2" locally as it stands now..

We picked up 0.11" of showers last night.. Euro still showing a decent soaking Monday/Tuesday albeit much more scattered then previous runs... Currently 70" and sticky, DP 66° and RH 86%, mix of sun and clouds..