wolfie09

Some showers starting to move into the area, maxed out earlier at 78°, currently 70° and overcast..

Gfs with some much needed relief over the next couple weeks but we know how fast this can change lol

Satellite imagery showing an expansive area of convective debris clouds moving into Western NY. Clouds will continue to increase from west to east through midday. While the thickening debris clouds will yield some showers...dry air blow H7 will retard the advance and amount of pcpn. Meanwhile...the threat for thunderstorms has mainly shifted to the later parts of the afternoon and evening. A complex convective forecast will evolve through tonight, with the timing and placement of better chances of showers and thunderstorms tied to subtle convectively manipulated shortwaves and vorticity maxima. Synoptically, a mid level trough will move from northwest Ontario today to western Quebec by late tonight, with an associated upper level jet streak moving from the central Great Lakes today to the Ottawa Valley by tonight. A series of more subtle and convectively augmented shortwaves downstream of the synoptic trough will move east across the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes within a plume of deep moisture, with PWAT exceeding 1.5" later today through tonight. Following the first round of rain chances, there should be a break for several hours this afternoon across Western NY, and late afternoon/early evening east of Lake Ontario. The clouds and showers moving through during the day will interfere with destabilization, only allowing for relatively modest instability to develop. Another subtle mid level trough will reach the eastern Great Lakes during the evening, supporting another round of showers and scattered thunderstorms. The chances for thunder should be higher with this second batch, with a more favorable thermodynamic environment in place. The showers and scattered storms will move east overnight, with rain chances gradually diminishing from west to east as the trough axis moves into eastern NY. The highest severe weather chances today and tonight will be found southwest of our region across the Ohio Valley, where the eastern extent of an Elevated Mixed Layer (EML) plume will contribute to strong destabilization to the south of a composite outflow boundary from the morning convection. Lack of instability will be the main limiting factor across Western and Central NY. If enough instability develops, moderate effective shear may result in a few storms with strong wind gusts during the evening across Western NY, but this risk appears low at this time. Heavy downpours will occur with any storms that develop as PWAT values exceed 1.5

Starting to get close to Moderate drought once again..

Pretty nice soaking on the 0z euro, majority of this is the Monday/Tues timeframe, seems the WPC is leaning that way with the enhanced precipitation east of Ontario...

Tuesday is the transition day as we probably max out overnight.. Front through the area around 12z according to the Euro..

Monday we "sizzle"

Fairly complicated scenario setting up for the first part of the new work week with potential for some beneficial rains, but also the possibility for some stronger storms. One thing that looks more certain at this time is that any remnants/associated moisture from a tropical system moving northeast from the Gulf Coast should remain south of the area. A large upper trough will dig across the upper Midwest/upper Great Lakes on Monday, while strengthening main surface low pressure pivots northeast into James Bay. A strong trailing cold front will approach from the west on Monday. Deep southwesterly flow ahead of the aforementioned features will pump GOMEX moisture northeast across the area. This combined with very warm/humid airmass and fairly strong mid/upper level dynamics in place should lead to the likelihood for showers and thunderstorms to break out across the area by Monday afternoon, some of which could be on the stronger side. High PWATS will mean the potential for locally heavy rainfall as well. At the same time, upper jet will be strengthening over the upper Great Lakes aiding in the development of low pressure on the cold front under the right entrance region of the upper jet. This will likely slow the eastward progression of the surface boundary, allowing for the potential for showers and storms to linger into Monday night. At this point appears cold front will slowly cross the area sometime later Monday night into Tuesday as surface low pressure rides northeast along the boundary. Combined with plentiful moisture still in place and right entrance region of the upper jet overhead, this would continue to support the likelihood of showers right into the day on Tuesday, with lessening chances for thunder as the day progresses owed to instability getting shoved east of the area with the boundary. Main upper trough axis crosses the area Tuesday night with the chance for a few lingering showers. A much cooler and drier airmass is then set to move into our area for Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure builds across the area from the west. Upper troughing will remain overhead which will keep the cooler air locked in over the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. Despite any diurnal instability that develops with the cool airmass overhead, limited moisture will preclude much in the way of any shower development either day, with much of the time remaining dry. Otherwise, above normal temperatures and high humidity levels on Monday will trend downward, with below average temperatures by Wednesday and Thursday and much more comfortable humidity levels.

3k and 12k for Friday/Saturday fwiw..

Can I see my 3rd consecutive sub 70° Max in a row? Guess I'll have to wait and see lol Forecast high was 72°, so far we have maxed out at 68.5° but has since dropped a couple degrees.. Obviously still plenty of time to warm...Another picture perfect day..

Focus for this period will be on convection/severe weather potential. Although it looks like Friday will start out dry, models suggesting a decaying convective complex will start to ride into western New York later in the morning. The ability for this complex to maintain itself as it moves east across the area will likely have a lot to say about convective potential later in the afternoon and into the evening. The expectation is that at least several hours of insolation will be needed for the atmosphere to recover and destabilize sufficiently. By late in the day Friday and into Friday evening, the area will be in the midst of a surge of moist/warm advection in a strengthening southwest flow. Although the better instability is expected to remain south of the area across the Ohio Valley, wind fields begin to ramp up with favorable shear profiles developing by Friday evening with 0-6 km bulk shear values climbing to over 50 kts. This will bring at least some severe weather potential late Friday/Friday evening and possibly into the overnight hours with southwest portions of the area now outlooked in a slight risk by SPC with the remainder of the area remaining outlooked in a marginal risk. With the larger scale trough still hanging over the region and a surface cold front crossing the region, convection will remain possible during the day Saturday before tapering down Saturday night.

Sunday will be dry before the next potential for rain. An area of low pressure will track northeast across the Great Lakes and into Quebec on Monday, causing increased POPs starting early Monday morning for WNY. As this sfc low tracks northeast, its widespread shield of rain will approach and go mostly over and north of Lake Ontario, but the southern and eastern portion of the area of showers will overspread WNY. As the sfc low tracks northeast, the trailing cold front will cross the area, extending the potential for showers. As the area of low pressure takes a more northerly oriented track, the frontal passage will slow down some over the area, increasing the potential for a more prolonged shower/rain event. Some guidance is suggesting, with the slower frontal passage, an additional wave of low pressure will track northeast along the boundary, bringing the potential for another round of rain Tuesday morning continuing through most of the day. High pressure over the center of the country should start to approach the region on Wednesday, providing a dry day. Temperatures during the long term period will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s Sunday and Monday. Behind the passing front, temps on Tuesday and Wednesday will drop to the mid 60s over the higher elevations to the low 70s for the lower elevations.

If euro is to be believed on Tuesday we should max out early before a CF pushes through, several comfortable days to follow...(Tues, Wed, Thursday)

Pretty much a second straight 66° max, "officially" 65.7° on the day, we have since dropped a couple degrees...NWS forecast for the last 2 days had 66° and 67°, so spot on for the most part..

Friday likely starts out dry, but remaining ridging influence will fade through the day as height falls begin to work into western New York as an upper wave drifts southeast through Ontario. This system will draw moisture northward into the eastern Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley by late Friday into Friday night as surface dewpoints climb into the lower 60s. This will bring an increasing risk for convection as we move through the day Friday and into Friday night. Fairly impressive shear profiles develop with a nearly 50 kt low level jet punching into western New York by Friday evening. Resulting bulk shear (0-6 km) tops out near 50 kts overnight Friday night. Cold front timing is still in question but looking to be later Friday night which may overtake an unstable airmass expected to be still in place, bringing at least some severe weather potential before Saturday morning. SPC has placed all of western and north central New York in a marginal risk in their latest day 3 outlook.

Hottest temp here is between July 21st-july 26th, we start dropping in temp on the 27th and lose about 4° in August, this is according to NOAA...

43.9° for the low, feels like mid October lol Currently sunny and 56°..

Latest CPC medium-long range.. Gfs brings some more below average temps D 7+ behind a CF..

We had a high of 66° at 11AM, showers have since moved in and dropped the temp into the upper 50s, only 0.03" liquid so far..

QPF over the next Week, courtesy of WPC and European..

Chilly afternoon for CNY on the gfs once the rain arrives.. Currently 62° and cloudy..

Enjoyable next few days and comfortable nights. Tuesday Showers likely, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 66. Northwest wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 50. Calm wind becoming north 5 to 7 mph after midnight. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 67. North wind 8 to 13 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 48. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the evening. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 72. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 52.

https://13wham.com/amp/news/local/gov-cuomo-at-fairgrounds-to-update-plans-and-hold-covid-19-briefing

I think it's about time they build one of these in syracuse..

Yeah getting closer, had a quick downpour with 0.12" recorded, frequent lightning for a while now but not much thunder..