wolfie09

Hard to say at this juncture.. I'd prepare for at least scattered showers but probably not a total washout.. Gfs 12z for example has on and off showers from Sunday into tues morning but really doesn't add up to a whole lot..

Sizzle sizzle

European through it's entirety.. About half of this is in the sat/sun time frame, rest is isolated throughout the week..

On Saturday the above mentioned wave of low pressure will pass by to our northwest...with its associated frontal boundary impinging on our western periphery. The approaching front and increasing diurnal instability should combine to generate at least some scattered showers and thunderstorms...with the greatest potential for these found across far western/northern New York...which will lie closest to the surface boundary. After that...the forecast details will be heavily dictated by the position of the frontal boundary...which will in turn be influenced by the balance between building ridging over the western Atlantic and multiple additional waves of low pressure tracking across the Great Lakes and southern Canada. At this point the medium range guidance remains at least somewhat at odds as to which of these features will have more influence...though there does seem to be at least some semblance of a trend toward the western Atlantic ridge eventually becoming more dominant over time...as exhibited by the ECMWF/GFS. Should the above come to fruition...the frontal zone would likely not make it any further east between Saturday night and Sunday... before gradually getting displaced a little further back to our west early on next week. Such an evolution in the pattern would keep our region on the warm side of the front and thus in a warm and humid airmass through the end of this period...while the still-close proximity of the boundary and increasing daytime instability still yielding at least some potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms each day...and nocturnal stabilization then leading to a relative minimum in convective activity later on each night

Well at least for now the NWS is going with a somewhat wet forecast D4-D7.. Probably not looking at a total washout.. Saturday A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Saturday Night Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Sunday Showers likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 78. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Sunday Night Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Monday Showers likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Monday Night Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Tuesday Showers likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 78. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Canadian on the other side of the spectrum.. Some needed rain either way.. (Gfs top, Canadian bottom)

Looks like GFS trended stronger (closer) with the HP off the coast allowing the boundary to stay farther west..IE less rain...

Yeah looks like 3"-6" for parts of the tug/dacks on the icon verbatim(through Tuesday) but you can see that cutoff, could go either way lol

Well where ever that boundary sets up is going to see quite a bit of moisture.. Like a conveyor belt from the GOM lol Euro still keeps it west so there's that..

A stalled boundary/front will be in place from the Upper Great Lakes to James Bay early Friday. A sfc low will develop over the Mid- Mississippi Valley on Friday, and track northeast along the stalled boundary. As the area of low pressure tracks northeast, the boundary will start to slowly track east toward the region. The daylight hours on Friday should be mostly dry, with the chance for showers increasing from west to east. As the boundary slowly crosses, over the WNY & North Country region, at least one additional sfc low is expected to track along the boundary. This will cause a prolonged period of time where showers and thunderstorms will be expected. Currently, it looks like the best chance for more persistent showers will be from Saturday afternoon through the remainder of the long term period. Timing and placement of the boundary will be the determining factor in amount of rain, with a quicker boundary/frontal passage leading to less rainfall overall for the region. But, if the boundary is as slow as some guidance is suggesting, a wet weekend will be on tap. Temperatures during the long term period will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s, with some day to day temperature fluctuations up and down a few degrees expected.

Continue to see some light rain that is slowly adding up.(0.06").. Dreary morning to say the least..

Sizzle sizzle returns this weekend..

Sitting at just under 3" rain for the month, if this came to fruition we would have an overall rainy June..

Didn't realize billy fuccillo past away a couple days ago.. Rip "It's huge" https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.syracuse.com/news/2021/06/billy-fuccillo-dead-at-65-built-car-sales-chain-with-a-huge-tv-persona.html%3foutputType=amp

Still ample moisture on the gfs starting this weekend..(includes a bit from today)

Well at least for this run the heaviest precipitation stays to the west (12z euro)..Still showing some showers and storms.. Kbuf The next upper level trough will drop across the Great Lakes and the Northeast Friday through Monday, all the while a few shortwaves will also rotate through. As it stands currently, the ridge exiting east aloft Friday will keep the majority of the area dry. However, a cold front associated with the upper level trough aloft over the Great Lakes will continue to cross the Great Lakes before entering Western New York late Friday night into Saturday. Thus, expect showers and thunderstorms to sweep across the area from west to east overnight Friday through Saturday. Model guidances continue to progress the trough and frontal zone slowly with its moisture being fed from the Gulf of Mexico due to the southwesterly winds. This will bring the much needed rain to the area. Looking further ahead, model guidance packages continue to push through a few more shortwaves while the trough is overhead. As such, chances for rain and thunderstorms will continue through the remainder of the weekend and into the start of the new work week.

Seen this posted on another forum, Maine has had several tornado warnings..

Storm is pretty much winding down here, picked up another 0.54" of rain, 0.91" on the day..

Warnings issued for that line of storms..

And here we go, not expecting much severe but I'll take the heavy rain lol

This cell is heading right towards here.. Fingers crossed lol

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Connecticut Western Massachusetts Eastern New York Northeast Pennsylvania * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms over central PA/NY will spread eastward across the watch area through early evening, posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles southwest of Binghamton NY to 20 miles east of Pittsfield MA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.

Watches issued..

If it stalls, could be huge rain maker, at least somewhere lol (over several days)