wolfie09

Yeah heading down towards the sizzle sizzle and it's starting to pour on 81, looks like a second line developed just behind which should give pulaski a little rain..

First batch of convection firing up..

As the day progresses the warm front will continue to push through the remainder of our region. Instability will increase through the afternoon hours, likely reaching 1000 to 1500 J/KG of SBCAPE. PWATS remain high 1.5 to 2.0 inches, and winds aloft are slightly stronger than previous days. This may bring enough storm motion to limit higher end precipitation totals from drenching storms. Still the threat for flooding from training storms or backbuilding storms will need to be monitored within this very humid airmass. Will include heavy rain from thunderstorms within the forecast. The other concern today will be heat index values. Dewpoints will rise into the lower 70s for our region...to even mid 70s near Lake Ontario. However surface temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than recent days as we should have a fair amount of clouds around during the day. These clouds, keeping the region generally in the 80s may be enough to keep heat index values from reaching advisory criteria for areas along the southern Lake Ontario shoreline. None the less, today will be again very warm and humid. Tonight convection will briefly wane with the setting sun. A surface low crossing central Quebec tonight will push a cold front towards our region late tonight. Ahead of this cold front showers and thunderstorms are expected to form with this line of storms reaching much of the region in the last few hours of the night. The 0-6 km bulk wind shear vectors continue to remain weak within this near zonal flow aloft...and the primary threat for storms late tonight will again be heavy rainfall. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A mid level trough and associated surface low will move eastward across central and northern Quebec Monday, with a trailing surface cold front crossing the eastern Great Lakes. The passage of the cold front and the southern tail of the mid level trough will still support a likelihood of showers and scattered thunderstorms early Monday morning across much of the area. Rain will then end from northwest to southeast from mid morning through mid afternoon as mid level drying and subsidence moves into the eastern Great Lakes in the wake of the trough passage. Expect at least partial sunshine to develop in the afternoon with the arrival of drier air. Highs will reach the low to mid 80s on the lake plains and upper 70s across higher terrain. Dewpoints may still be in the lower 70s early in the morning, then start to drop back into the 60s in the afternoon as the first installment of somewhat drier air arrives.

9AM update still 150 mph winds but pressure dropped another 5mb to 930mb..

Ida is now a cat 3 major hurricane. 1:00 AM CDT Sun Aug 29Location: 27.6°N 88.7°WMoving: NW at 15 mphMin pressure: 955 mbMax sustained: 115 mph

Better chance for convection tomorrow afternoon/evening..

Seeing some lightning off in the distance but looks to miss here just to the north..More convection in Canada probably weakens before getting here..

NWS Nola Ida is moving to the northwest around a ridge centered over the Atlantic coast around SC/NC. This has provided a very well defined steering current leading Ida directly towards the north-central Gulf. Ida has been gaining strength through the day and the presentation on satellite is very ominous. A few very concerning observations. Ida still hasn`t really rapidly intensified yet, and the thinking is it still will and that now means that it could be strengthening up to or just before making landfall. Even though that hasn`t occurred it is already stronger than what the guidance was initially expecting and it has been a slow increase. Ida is going to continue to strengthen for at least the next 12-18 hours. There is no dry air around, upper level outflow is quite impressive, and Ida will move over the warmest and deepest part of the Gulf. This is all very conducive for strengthening. What this can mean is that there may not be time for an eye wall replacement cycle to get started which would lead to some slight weakening but as mentioned already it could be strengthening up to landfall. The track has been sliding just a touch east of the forecast and this is leading to some greater concerns with respect to surge in some areas and rainfall potential in areas that just can not handle heavy rain. First any more adjustments east will cause surge to become a greater problem along the east facing shores of Louisiana. The current track is going to bring UNSURVIVABLE surge up Barataria and Terrebonne Bays. Much of coastal LA is just marsh so this surge will penetrate well inland and unless you are within the Hurricane Risk Reduction System you are putting your life in danger and do not expect to receive any help if you are caught and cut off. This includes both west and east of the mouth of the MS River in SELA. Outside of those areas life threatening storm surge is expected to occur in the tidal lakes and coastal MS. Lake Pontchartrain could see 6 to 8 feet of surge and possibly even higher in the northwestern sections of the lake around Tangipahoa Parish and western St Tammany parish. Coastal MS especially west of Ocean Springs could see up to 11ft. Locations that typically have tidal issues in Hancock county should leave now as storm surge will be extremely dangerous. Winds will be dangerous to destructive through our entire CWA. The most destructive winds will occur along the coast of Louisiana where devastating structural damage could occur as winds are expected to gust over 160 mph! This will severely damage to destroy most structures that are not well built. Locations around New Orleans could see winds that are far stronger than what was experienced last year during Hurricane Zeta with much of the area likely seeing winds gusts in excess of 100 mph. If there is any more of a jog east these winds will be even higher. Winds funneling through some of the high rises will be even stronger. Around Baton Rouge we could see wind damage that far eclipses what was seen during Hurricane Gustav. Winds gusts over 110 mph are possible that far inland. This will lead to widespread tree damage, structural damage, and massive power outages which could take weeks to restore. Across southwest MS winds will remain very strong likely gusting over hurricane force around Wilkinson County and gusting to near hurricane force as far east as McComb. Northshore areas, especially along the lake could see wind gusts over hurricane force with widespread tree damage and power outages. Coastal MS likely to see winds gusts over 60 mph at times which could still lead to damage and widespread power outages. The other life threatening concern is heavy rain. This is two fold though because of where it could fall combining that with the surge in the lake and along the coast. We are anticipating a band of very heavy rain that could be 15 to 20 inches and possibly higher. If this falls over the city of New Orleans it will overwhelm the pumps with extremely dangerous flash flooding possible. At the same time winds could be dangerous and this would prevent people from trying to find higher ground. Other areas of major concern is along and north of I-12. This is the area where we have many rivers that are quick to respond, Amite/Comite, Tickfaw, Tangipahoa, Bogue Chitto, and across the MS border in coastal MS we have the the Hobolochittos and Wolf. All of these rivers and a few more respond rather quickly to heavy rain and the combine with the problem of surge into the lake and along coastal MS. The surge will push up these rivers and the rain will have no where to go and quickly lead to dangerous flash flooding conditions. Combine the possibility of debris clogging up other areas of drainage and widespread life threatening flash flooding is possible. Please if you live in a flood prone area highly consider leaving. If this rain falls directly over you the drainage and rivers could be overwhelmed quickly and you could be cut off with rising water. Ida will finally pull away on Monday. Winds and rain will finally begin to taper off but surge could take a while to completely back down sense we never quite get offshore flow. These are the last few hours to prepare or leave. Conditions are expected to deteriorate late tonight and especially tomorrow morning. Once sustained tropical storm force winds move in first responders will button down and YOU WILL BE ON YOUR OWN. Please understand this, there is the possibility that conditions could be unlivable along the coast for some time and areas around New Orleans and Baton Rouge could be without power for weeks. We have all seen the destruction and pain caused by Harvey, Michael, and Laura. Anticipate devastation on this level and if it doesn`t happen then we should all count our blessings. Please again if you have the means to leave and you are 1 in a mandatory or voluntary evacuation zone, LEAVE; 2 are in a very flood prone area, LEAVE, 3 are uncomfortable and have trees around your house, LEAVE. Do not play around and say "I`ve been through Andrew/Camille/Katrina/Betsy" all storms are different. /CAB/

Yeah it's been a while BW..We have had a bunch of 12"-18" the last few years but you have to go back to 2016-2017 for 2'+.. The November event dumped 2 feet but was a hybrid event.. January event was pure LES and dumped between 36"-46", which is the biggest event in the last 5 years or so.. The February event was also pure LES and dumped just over 2'..

Last few runs of the LR GFS bringing the 540 line to our north lol It also has another tropical system in the gulf..

Looks like the sizzle sizzle is staying west so far, kbuf a few degrees above forecast..Here it's been a steady mid-upper 70s with dews slowly climbing (68°).. A warm front will lift northward across the area through this evening, resulting in an increase in humidity along with some showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain above normal until a frontal passage on Monday ushers in a cooler and less humid air mass which will last through the remainder of the work week.

Ida has reached cat 2 status as of 1 pm.(Central) 1:00 PM CDT Sat Aug 28Location: 25.5°N 86.6°WMoving: NW at 16 mphMin pressure: 976 mbMax sustained: 100 mph

IDA EXPECTED TO BEGIN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SOON... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... 10:00 AM CDT Sat Aug 28Location: 24.8°N 86.1°WMoving: NW at 16 mphMin pressure: 984 mbMax sustained: 85 mph

Slight probabilities of below average temps D6-14..

Cold front that came through today returns as a warm front sometime this weekend, possible heat advisories Sunday.. Meanwhile temperatures will continue to range above normal and together with the higher humidity could lead to another round of heat advisories on Sunday. Another CF approaches Monday which should give us a pleasant week for the most part..

Finally starting to see a drop wrt DPs and temp but it's still 68° out, DP 59°..

New 5pm update has ida becoming a major hurricane sat afternoon, about 24ish hours earlier than this mornings update..

NWS lowered forecasted temps all week with Sunday being the only day in the 80s..Last 3 days of the forecast period 70-72 with DPs in the 50s, my kind of weather.. Expansive high pressure will extend from Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes region during the period. This will provide generally fair weather, and a refreshing change in the air mass with dew points dropping into the 50s and daytime highs in the 70s during the latter half of the week. Overall good model agreement with above average forecast confidence. The only potential concern is Wednesday when tropical remnants will pass nearby to our south and east and could potentially clip southern portions of the forecast area. However, the majority of model guidance keeps our area rain-free with this risk relatively low.

Sizzle Sizzle.. Not much of a front huh? Lol Dewpoints did lower about 7°-10° which is something I guess..Hit 83° earlier, down a degree since..

IDA MAKES LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE ON THE ISLE OF YOUTH... 2:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 27Location: 21.6°N 82.7°WMoving: NW at 15 mphMin pressure: 987 mbMax sustained: 75 mph

'It's ironic': Ida expected to make landfall in Louisiana on 16th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina

3k goes absolutely nuts with these pressure drops lol 12z hurricane models drop to upper 930s/940mb, dangerous storm indeed..

Lol Yeah if it was a giant Asian (murder) hornet I'd be in trouble haha Looking at photos they are absolutely huge lol These ones aren't that big..They are also mainly black, resembling a bald face hornet..From my research they have about a 4 month life cycle that ends around mid September..They are also known to be good for pest control lol They aren't that close to the house so I'll just let them finish their life cycle and remove the empty nest in fall/winter..

I'll do you one better.. Sizzle Sizzle lol That's what happens when you have sunny skies compared to overcast..