Rtd208

The GFS keeping putting down a swath of 3-5" rainfall amount right over NE NJ and the NYC metro especially on the 06z run. Otherwise widespread 1-3" amounts throughout the region. Pretty strong storm overall at 975 mb.

The NYC metro should see a widespread 1-3" rainfall w/locally higher amounts especially as you head further north and east. Severe weather also possible tomorrow night into the first half of Tuesday. I think the SPC may eventually go with a slight risk for the area. We'll see. Wednesday could be a windy day behind the system. Storm #2 Friday into Saturday details TBD but potentially stronger and more impactful then storm #1?? The fuse was light and the active pattern has now exploded after an extended break post Ida.

Me to.

Sometimes its like the blind leading the blind on this forum.

Magic 8 ball?

DT (WxRisk) also likes the idea of a storm in the 29th-31st timeframe.

Mt. Holly's current take on next week. I would lean more towards the GFS Op but we'll see. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An upper level low will remain quasi-stationary near the Hudson Bay Saturday into Sunday before getting ejected east over the Canadian Maritimes. Mostly dry conditions are forecast Saturday into Sunday with highs in the low to mid 60s. The aforementioned wave in the short term discussion will cross the zones early Saturday, which may induce some shower development but chances look low here. Have kept chances of precipitation capped at slight chance. Either way, cloud cover will likely be more robust Saturday and Sunday. Late Sunday into Monday another wave crosses the Central Plains with surface cyclogenesis occurring over KS. The wave will then head east along the tightening baroclinic zone with chances of precipitation increasing from west to east Monday morning. Chances of precipitation will then continue into Tuesday as a psuedo Miller-B pattern tries to setup. The pattern here remains low predictability though as the GFS indicates wave breaking occurring with a deep vertically stacked area of low pressure developing by Wednesday. The ECMWF shows a much more progressive pattern. Taking a look at the latest EPS and GEFS runs, would indicate that the deterministic GFS deepens the low pressure far to much. The deterministic ECMWF solution appears to fit the overall ensemble envelope much more. &&

Just tossing weenies like your local Sabrett guy.

It appears the overall quiet weather we have been experiencing since the remnants of Ida may continue for the next several days. There are signs things may become active right at the tail end of the month. We'll see.

Picked up 0.34" of rain for the day yesterday.

Picked up 0.34" of rain for the day yesterday. High for the day yesterday was 82 Current temp 55

Picked up 0.34" of rain for the day yesterday. High for the day yesterday was 82 Current temp 55

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

The GFS has also been toying with the idea of a possible coastal storm in the 21st-24th timeframe as well. It could potentially be a good sign as we head into winter. We'll see.

I see the anti snow rhetoric has started.

@bluewave marginal for now, have to see if they upgrade to a slight risk as we move closer. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

With the right setup fall severe weather events can be pretty potent. Will be interesting to see how things evolve as we move closer to Saturday.

Picked up 0.39" of rain so far today. Current temp 66/DP 64/RH 95%

Picked up 0.39" of rain so far today. Current temp 66/DP 64/RH 95%

Picked up 0.15" of rain for the day yesterday. Current temp 62/DP 60/RH 94%

Picked up 0.15" of rain for the day yesterday. Current temp 62/DP 60/RH 94%