Upton for late week.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The main focus in the extended is on the Thu into Fri storm.
The modeling has been very consistent, keeping the main low an
inside runner with mainly wind and rain impacts to the fcst
area.
Per the latest data, the sys approaches Thu, peaks Thu ngt,
with the associated cold front clearing the area early Fri. A
powerful lljet looks to produce a significant wind threat for
the area. The GFS has 90kt at h925 just 15 miles s of Fire
Island at 6Z Fri. Coastal CT and LI will have the highest wind
risk, but anywhere in the cwa will be capable of reaching at
least advy criteria in this setup. The wind threat will be
highlighted in the hwo.
Rain will be the main pcpn type with the sys with temps in the
50s and 60s on Thu. Still in the warm sector Thu ngt, then
falling temps behind the front on Fri.
Deep lift noted in the model time heights, so some isold tstms
cannot be ruled out.
Rainfall of less than an inch is modeled, although locally hvy
rainfall rates are likely at times due to the convective nature of
the pcpn and a moisture tap from the GOMEX.
Temps drop back to seasonal late Fri thru the weekend with dry wx
expected attm.
&&