Upton:
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
With one warm front off to the north and another to slowly
approach, things will start off warm, with temps Thu night
bottoming out mostly from the mid 40s to mid 50s, then with
onshore SE flow rising to the lower 80s inland well away from
the ocean, into the 70s most elsewhere, and only into the 60s
near south facing showers out east. A milder night Fri night
expected, with lows near 60 in midtown NYC and in the 50s
elsewhere as the onshore flow continues and even backs east for
a time.
The front should get a push north first thing Sat morning, but
with more in the way of clouds ahead of an approaching frontal
system as well as continued onshore flow temps likely to end up
cooler than those of Friday, with more widespread 60s for highs
across SE CT and eastern Long Island, and failing to reach 80
from NYC north/west.
A rainy/windy and cooler period likely from Sat night into
Sunday as a closed low to the west becomes negatively tilted and
potent leading shortwave energy approaches. A long SE-S fetch
and lack of a strong sfc-based inversion likely to result in
winds approaching or exceeding advisory criteria late Sat night
into Sunday, especially along the coast. A narrow corridor of
strong Atlantic moisture transport ahead of the front via a
strong LLJ, as well as enhanced lift ahead of a wave of low
pressure along the approaching front, also likely to result in
pds of moderate to heavy rain and some rumbles of thunder from
late Sat night into Sunday night.
The aforementioned closed low to the west will become the
westernleg of a large omega block over eastern North American
and the western Atlantic, so expectations are that the forecast
trends going into early next week will slow down. So PoP
forecast remains somewhat higher than NBM during this time, with
chance PoP for ern CT/Long Island into Monday and at least
slight chance PoP otherwise going into Tuesday.
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