Rtd208

That is pretty impressive for an ensemble.

Temps rising nicely this morning. Current temp 69

Temps rising nicely this morning. Current temp 69

Looks like my thoughts on the models going drier for next week may wind up be wrong. The overnight Euro was pretty wet and like you mentioned we will have to see how a PRE sets up for early next week.

While plenty of uncertainty still exists with regard to next week my hunch says we will end up being much drier then what the models were originally showing. We'll see.

While plenty of uncertainty still exists with regard to next week my hunch says we will end up being much drier then what the models were originally showing. We'll see.

Yeah the models are having a tough time trying to figure out the placement of the ULL which probably won't begin to get resolved for a couple of days yet. At least in my area the 12z GFS/CMC (and GEFS) have all backed off on the heavier rainfall amounts for next week. So still alot of uncertainty.

Yep so far both the 12z GFS/CMC (and GEFS) have backed off on the heavy precipitation from early runs. The GFS actually backed off on the 00z run then went heavy again at 06z but now shows virtually nothing for us. So clearly the models are trying to figure out the placement of the ULL for next week and they probably wont begin to have an idea for another couple of days or so.

...Northeast States... A northern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress quickly eastward/southeastward across the Great Lakes into the Northeast States on Friday. Strong mid-level flow attendant to this system will spread eastward just ahead of it while an associated surface low and cold front also move across the Northeast. Temperatures and dewpoints ahead of this front are forecast to reach the mid 70s and upper 50s/low 60s, respectively, resulting in modest instability. Thunderstorm development is anticipated during the afternoon as the front interacts with this instability. Low to mid-level flow will strengthen over the region as the shortwave trough approaches, contributing to both moderate vertical shear and fast storm motions. Fast-moving bowing line segments, which may eventually amalgamate into a coherent convective line, will be the predominant storm mode. Damaging wind gusts from these bowing segments will be the primary severe hazard, although some isolated hail may occur, particularly with any more cellular/discrete storms. Additionally, moderate veering of the low-level wind profiles will support a low-probably tornado potential with both discrete development ahead of the line and line-embedded circulations.

...Northeast States... A northern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress quickly eastward/southeastward across the Great Lakes into the Northeast States on Friday. Strong mid-level flow attendant to this system will spread eastward just ahead of it while an associated surface low and cold front also move across the Northeast. Temperatures and dewpoints ahead of this front are forecast to reach the mid 70s and upper 50s/low 60s, respectively, resulting in modest instability. Thunderstorm development is anticipated during the afternoon as the front interacts with this instability. Low to mid-level flow will strengthen over the region as the shortwave trough approaches, contributing to both moderate vertical shear and fast storm motions. Fast-moving bowing line segments, which may eventually amalgamate into a coherent convective line, will be the predominant storm mode. Damaging wind gusts from these bowing segments will be the primary severe hazard, although some isolated hail may occur, particularly with any more cellular/discrete storms. Additionally, moderate veering of the low-level wind profiles will support a low-probably tornado potential with both discrete development ahead of the line and line-embedded circulations.

Yeah W.NJ/E.PA would be the jackpot with 1-3" of rain in the NYC metro if the Euro is right. The GFS has the heavier rain a bit further east but placement will be difficult to pinpoint at this range. Regardless a prolonged heavy rain event is becoming increasingly likely for the area next week.

Current temp is 66 which is the high for the day.

Current temp is 66 which is the high for the day.

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Wed May 13 2020 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Northeast States as well as the southern Plains and Ozark Plateau Friday. ...Northeast... A northern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward from its position early Friday over Upper Great Lakes through the Northeast States. Surface low associated with this system will likely begin the period over southwestern Ontario before then moving quickly eastward across NY. Cold front attendant to this low will move eastward through the Upper OH Valley and NY/northern Mid-Atlantic. Temperatures and dewpoints ahead of this front are forecast to reach the mid 70s and upper 50s/low 60s, respectively, resulting in a modest instability. Consequently, thunderstorm development is anticipated along the front during the afternoon. Strong mid-level flow will support fast-moving bowing line segments capable of damaging wind gusts. Isolated hail and a brief tornado are also possible.

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Wed May 13 2020 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Northeast States as well as the southern Plains and Ozark Plateau Friday. ...Northeast... A northern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward from its position early Friday over Upper Great Lakes through the Northeast States. Surface low associated with this system will likely begin the period over southwestern Ontario before then moving quickly eastward across NY. Cold front attendant to this low will move eastward through the Upper OH Valley and NY/northern Mid-Atlantic. Temperatures and dewpoints ahead of this front are forecast to reach the mid 70s and upper 50s/low 60s, respectively, resulting in a modest instability. Consequently, thunderstorm development is anticipated along the front during the afternoon. Strong mid-level flow will support fast-moving bowing line segments capable of damaging wind gusts. Isolated hail and a brief tornado are also possible.

Yeah it looks like the GFS at least has gotten much wetter for the second half of the upcoming weekend into early next week.

It looks like a pretty decent area of rain is about to move into the NYC metro area according to the radar. Current temp 51

It looks like a pretty decent area of rain is about to move into the NYC metro area according to the radar. Current temp 51

It turned out to be a really nice day. Current temp 65

It turned out to be a really nice day. Current temp 65

The overnight low made it down to 35 here. Current temp 60

The overnight low made it down to 35 here. Current temp 60

Snow shower here. Amazing.

Snow shower here. Amazing.

Snow shower here. Amazing.