Rtd208

Current temp is up to 87 here.

Current temp is up to 87 here.

Current temp 84/DP 73/RH 70%

Current temp 84/DP 73/RH 70%

Warm and muggy morning out there. Current temp 74/DP 70/RH 89%

Warm and muggy morning out there. Current temp 74/DP 70/RH 89%

Warm and humid day out there. Current temp 79/DP 70/RH 73%

Warm and humid day out there. Current temp 79/DP 70/RH 73%

Will the summer begin to heat up or stay on the cooler side? Post them here.

Will June begin to heat up or stay on the cooler side? Post them here.

So much for the threat of heavy rain for Thursday/Friday at least on current model guidance. Have to see if that changes over the next 24 hours.

So much for the threat of heavy rain for Thursday/Friday at least on current model guidance. Have to see if that changes over the next 24 hours.

NWS Mt.Holly ref: Wednesday thru Saturday. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Fairly complicated medium-range forecast today, as a western Atlantic ridge will steer a weak system currently off the Florida coast northward into the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday. This complicates the precipitation forecast Wednesday night through Friday, with the subsequent approach of a strong cold front bringing additional chances for convection through Saturday. The temperature forecast will also be problematic as a result of these systems. The 00z model suite poses an interesting set of solutions to our sensible weather Wednesday through Saturday. Perhaps the most problematic portion of the forecast is Wednesday and Thursday, as the operational models consistently depict a weak system off the Florida coast migrating slowly northward on the upstream side of a strong western Atlantic ridge into the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday. Convection looks to accompany the weak surface reflection, as stronger instability noses northward as deep- layer southerly flow promotes warm/moist advection along the East Coast. Timing discrepancies exist amongst the model suite, with the GFS a bit faster than the ECMWF. There are also slight differences in the track of the system, and given the rather compact nature of the system`s associated lift, this track will be rather important to pinpoint for resultant QPF. Current thinking is that areas farther inland may have a better shot of precipitation, so the highest PoPs exist in these areas. Areal- average QPF, speaking of, is not particularly impressive when analyzing model solutions generally, but given the source region of the system and the high-octane air that will advect into the region (PWs approaching 2 inches by Thursday afternoon), locally heavy rainfall seems likely with the stronger convective cores. Preceding the weak Thursday system, surface flow will continue to slowly veer to a more south-southeast direction. With increasing boundary-layer dew points and a continued onshore component, would expect another round of fog and/or low clouds Wednesday night. As might be guessed, the temperature forecast is a little tricky, especially Thursday with the question marks regarding precipitation coverage. Although I expect it to be seasonably warm, the general trend was to nudge highs downward a bit. If precipitation is lacking and/or periods of reduced cloud cover occur, highs will be warmer than forecast. However, confidence is not high enough to stray much warmer than consensus at this point. Precipitation chances remain the primary concern Thursday night and Friday. The weak system on Thursday appears to lift north of the region by Thursday night, but the proximity of an approaching trough will allow several midlevel perturbations to eject northeastward in advance of the primary vort max. Scattered convection seems probable in much of the eastern U.S. Thursday night and Friday. Instability will likely gradually increase through the period as well, especially via diurnal diabatic heating on Friday. As such, the threat of thunderstorms looks to increase through this period, likely culminating Friday night with the approach of a strong cold front. The timing of the front is still under debate, with the GFS noticeably slower than the ECMWF/CMC. Tend to think a slower solution is more probable, owing to the strength of downstream ridging. As such, tended to keep PoPs a little bit higher than consensus on Saturday, which has ensemble support. If the slower solutions verify, Saturday would be another active convective day for portions of the region (especially the southeastern CWA). Severe storms are certainly possible on Friday and Saturday, though ambient shear appears rather weak. Thus, coverage of severe storms may be fairly sporadic/transient. Locally heavy rainfall seems probable, particularly in areas of training (slow-moving features in play), as PWs will remain rather high (1.6-2.0 inches, generally). As with Thursday, temperatures Friday and Saturday are a big question mark, with cloud cover, precipitation coverage, and frontal timing all playing roles in lowering confidence. Again, with the expectation that precipitation coverage will be sufficiently large, think that straying too far from guidance is unwise at this point. After the cold front passes through the region Saturday, temperatures will fall below seasonal averages Sunday into the following work week as a strong surface high builds into the region. Another lengthy period of dry weather looks to occur as well. &&

NWS Mt.Holly ref: Wednesday thru Saturday. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Fairly complicated medium-range forecast today, as a western Atlantic ridge will steer a weak system currently off the Florida coast northward into the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday. This complicates the precipitation forecast Wednesday night through Friday, with the subsequent approach of a strong cold front bringing additional chances for convection through Saturday. The temperature forecast will also be problematic as a result of these systems. The 00z model suite poses an interesting set of solutions to our sensible weather Wednesday through Saturday. Perhaps the most problematic portion of the forecast is Wednesday and Thursday, as the operational models consistently depict a weak system off the Florida coast migrating slowly northward on the upstream side of a strong western Atlantic ridge into the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday. Convection looks to accompany the weak surface reflection, as stronger instability noses northward as deep- layer southerly flow promotes warm/moist advection along the East Coast. Timing discrepancies exist amongst the model suite, with the GFS a bit faster than the ECMWF. There are also slight differences in the track of the system, and given the rather compact nature of the system`s associated lift, this track will be rather important to pinpoint for resultant QPF. Current thinking is that areas farther inland may have a better shot of precipitation, so the highest PoPs exist in these areas. Areal- average QPF, speaking of, is not particularly impressive when analyzing model solutions generally, but given the source region of the system and the high-octane air that will advect into the region (PWs approaching 2 inches by Thursday afternoon), locally heavy rainfall seems likely with the stronger convective cores. Preceding the weak Thursday system, surface flow will continue to slowly veer to a more south-southeast direction. With increasing boundary-layer dew points and a continued onshore component, would expect another round of fog and/or low clouds Wednesday night. As might be guessed, the temperature forecast is a little tricky, especially Thursday with the question marks regarding precipitation coverage. Although I expect it to be seasonably warm, the general trend was to nudge highs downward a bit. If precipitation is lacking and/or periods of reduced cloud cover occur, highs will be warmer than forecast. However, confidence is not high enough to stray much warmer than consensus at this point. Precipitation chances remain the primary concern Thursday night and Friday. The weak system on Thursday appears to lift north of the region by Thursday night, but the proximity of an approaching trough will allow several midlevel perturbations to eject northeastward in advance of the primary vort max. Scattered convection seems probable in much of the eastern U.S. Thursday night and Friday. Instability will likely gradually increase through the period as well, especially via diurnal diabatic heating on Friday. As such, the threat of thunderstorms looks to increase through this period, likely culminating Friday night with the approach of a strong cold front. The timing of the front is still under debate, with the GFS noticeably slower than the ECMWF/CMC. Tend to think a slower solution is more probable, owing to the strength of downstream ridging. As such, tended to keep PoPs a little bit higher than consensus on Saturday, which has ensemble support. If the slower solutions verify, Saturday would be another active convective day for portions of the region (especially the southeastern CWA). Severe storms are certainly possible on Friday and Saturday, though ambient shear appears rather weak. Thus, coverage of severe storms may be fairly sporadic/transient. Locally heavy rainfall seems probable, particularly in areas of training (slow-moving features in play), as PWs will remain rather high (1.6-2.0 inches, generally). As with Thursday, temperatures Friday and Saturday are a big question mark, with cloud cover, precipitation coverage, and frontal timing all playing roles in lowering confidence. Again, with the expectation that precipitation coverage will be sufficiently large, think that straying too far from guidance is unwise at this point. After the cold front passes through the region Saturday, temperatures will fall below seasonal averages Sunday into the following work week as a strong surface high builds into the region. Another lengthy period of dry weather looks to occur as well. &&

Turned out to be a pretty nice day. Current temp 75/DP 63/RH 66%

Turned out to be a pretty nice day. Current temp 75/DP 63/RH 66%

6/19

Current temp 69/DP 60/RH 74%

Current temp 69/DP 60/RH 74%

18/12/7

Picked up 0.28" of rain so far today. Current temp 68

Picked up 0.28" of rain so far today. Current temp 68

A very muggy morning out there with some heavy rain/storms moving up from SW NJ. Current temp 62/DP 60/RH 95%

A very muggy morning out there with some heavy rain/storms moving up from SW NJ. Current temp 62/DP 60/RH 95%

Current temp is 76/DP 60