Chicago WX

Saturday/Sunday event has the look of a north trender. LOT talking rain possibility for here. Regardless, should be some nice banding with this one. I-80 on north looks prime for a decent system. Probably need to fire up a thread soon.

Models in pretty good agreement around here now. QPF range from 0.20-0.30". Looks like we'll be stuck in a subby zone between the northern fgen band and the system bands to the south/southeast. Lowering my call to 1-3", will go with 2.2" final to be exact. Only question is whether I'll have any snow left on the ground by the end of Wednesday, as it looks to torch in the afternoon.  

You would think the NAM would’ve started backing off, the closer we get. Instead, it’s doubling down. Just a junk model. Well, most of them are it seems…

13 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

It's odd when I'm the more tempered one.  

At this point, just don't see a compelling case for an advisory for at least the northwest half and more like 2/3 of the LOT cwa.  But we'll see if things can trend better across the guidance suite.

I’m thinking 2-4” in my hood. I know that’s wild and crazy thinking! 

But, I think the southeast 1/3 of LOT’s CWA warrants an advisory.

40 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

If I were LOT, I don't know if I'd even bother issuing an advisory in most of the cwa.  Total amounts may make it into advisory criteria in some areas, but magnitude of road impacts are questionable overall.  And for Chicago metro, precip onset doesn't look to be until around the start of rush hour Wednesday morning, so not like there will be ample opportunity for conditions to go to shit prior to the commute.  

The best argument for an advisory may be the ridiculous lack of snow so far this winter, lol

Maybe they’ll just forecast white rain. No accumulations for anyone! 

0z RGEM with a tick west and north with the QPF shield.

0z NAM bumping north. Warning snows to southern Cook over to Hoosier.

1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said:

yeah looks p rockin

Late Jan and early Feb are our time to shine, as always. 

14 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Despite the outlier NW 12Z GFS track; main snows still stay SE from Central IL over to DTW. As Euro seems fairly locked in will go 1.5" far NW, 2-3" downtown and southside, 5" Kankakee

 

 

 

Mid level low tracks would argue for a more expansive shield (higher QPF) on the northwest side, *IF* the GFS played out as the actual outcome. Dubious to that though. 
My first guess for MBY is 2-4”. Should increase fairly quickly just to the south/southeast.

Figures, the 6z EPS losing the left leaners. No huge change overall, but maybe a slight tick to the east on the mean versus the 0z run. I guess I'm grasping at straws a bit, trying to turn what looks like a 1-3" event into 3-5" in my hood. Still, hoping we can get a good hit for the people in southern/central IL into Indiana and Ohio. 

Looking at the HRRR and RAP last night and this morning, was expecting a near shut out IMBY...but it's been snowing nicely for the past couple of hours. Nice flakes too. So a nice surprise, even if minor.

24 hour QPF has improved as well, versus prior runs, particularly for places in southern/central IL and the southern "half-ish" of Indiana and then into Ohio.

0z EPS still has some left leaners (deeper solutions) at 90 hours.

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Wait, you are optimistic?  

Sure. I'm not calling for feet of snow obviously, but a decent event looks probable to me. The higher upside possibility is probably a longer shot...but again, it's Saturday. We've got plenty of time for this get better, or worse.

I get it that some people are big dog hunters, but man I'd take any amount of snow at this point. 

Some of you give up too easy. 

Caveats aside, 18z NAM looks like it would go somewhat nuke at 84 and beyond. 
Regardless, think a decent event is still on the table for many. It’s still only Saturday…

3-4 wintry shots in the short to medium range, using ensemble guidance (EPS and GEFS). 

1/22-23 looks like a light deal.

1/25-26 moderate event, has potential higher ceiling

Maybe a clipper-ish type system somewhere in-between the above and below

1/30-31 same as 1/25-26, but too far out to have much confidence

I wouldn't get too high or too low with the op runs right now, as they're essentially just another ensemble member in the medium/long range. Just my opinion, but I'd rather be north of the modeled snow swath in the "long" short and medium range at this point, based off pattern on the ensembles. Regardless, best potential for a sustained wintry pattern (longer than 5 days) for a lot of us this winter.  

Easy final call of a T. Shutout on the table too.

On 12/23/2022 at 9:13 AM, IWXwx said:

Good luck. I always am concerned about you guys and gals working in these conditions. Today is probably right up there with the worst ones.

I thank you for the sentiment.

To recap yesterday and today. The worst conditions I’ve ever worked in. My route this weekend is on the western side of town. The blowing and drifting yesterday was epic. Less than a block visibility at times for me. The cold was intense. I wore 2 pairs of gloves, and still had a touch of frost bite on the tips of my fingers. I’ll be alright. Today, it’s still very gusty, but there’s not much snow blowing around. Not sure there’s much left, lol. Regardless, many spots with 1-3 four drifts. It’s tricky getting around. All of this with 2.5” of snow. I can only imagine what a foot would’ve been like…

Wild conditions here. Visibility in town is around 3-4 blocks. Roads are total shit. Can’t imagine what it’s like in the sticks. River has flash freezed. Work today is going to be something else. Not sure I have enough layers on. 

Some of the worst conditions I’ve worked in, this afternoon. The temp drop and everything freezing over instantly. Ripped snow for a couple hours, lighter stuff otherwise. Hard to get a good measure, but thinking about 2.5” IMBY. Time to warm up! 

Pounding here. Good flakes too. Winds gusty. 14 degrees. Good snows Won’t last long, but it’s pretty neat.

I haven’t watched TV weather in ages, but decided to flip on channel 9 this morning. Their “go to” weather model is apparently the IBM Graf model. Lol, interesting. Alek down through Lansing jackpot with 6 and change FWIW.

9% chance for Alek to hit/exceed 8". LOT knows.

43 minutes ago, King James said:

Let’s go! Going to be wild for a bit around here dude. Hopefully you don’t have to be on the roads 

I have to work in it. Though hopefully get off before it really gets bad. Even though the snow part will be over tomorrow, the cold and wind part is going to be really "fun" for those of us out in it.