Chicago WX

But to the original topic of the thread, it’d be January 1979 for me. I was only 3, so needless to say, no recollection of that one. It was of course the cherry on top of an incredible season in NE IL that winter. 

Second place would be Jan 1978, even if the snowfall amounts/impacts were lesser around here. I’d just love to see the evolution of that storm on present modeling.

On 1/2/2026 at 9:29 PM, cyclone77 said:

Like the title says, just one.  If you could pick one wintry event (has to be in your own lifetime) to relive which would it be, and why? 

There's so many great events over the decade to choose from, but for me it's gotta be December 14-15 1987.  To this day I've never seen so much lightning and thunder during a blizzard.  It was truly remarkable.   Winds gusting 60-70mph, the lightning, and the incredible bombing that system did the evening of the 14th was about as good as it gets.  We even had bursts of heavy sleet mix in at times, but it didn't cut down on the snow accumulations too much.  This event is probably one of the main reasons I got into the wintry side of weather.  This would be incredible to watch unfold with today's technology.  

Iowa State has NWS text data back to 1983. Seems the snow amounts above 6" were a bit of a surprise for LOT forecasters with this storm, reading back through the AFDs, but forecasting was a bit more "primitive" back in those days.

A few SPS's from LOT during this storm. The part about shoveling your driveway in the second one is gold. 

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
5 45 PM CST TUE DEC 15 1987

...WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE CHICAGO METRO AREA THIS
   MORNING AND TODAY...
...JUST WHEN YOU DIDNT THINK IT COULD GET ANY WORSE...

AT 5 30 HEAVY SNOW...WITH OCCASIONAL VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO...WAS OCCURRING.
MANY REPORTS OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HAIL...AND FIERCE WINDS HAVE
RECEIVED. AT 5 06 AM...OHARE REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 64 MPH...AND
WINDOWS WERE BLOWN OUT AT SOME OF THE BUILDINGS AT NORTHERN ILLINOIS
UNIVERSITY IN DEKALB.

RADAR SHOWS YET ANOTHER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHICAGO AREA...FROM JUST NORTH OF MARSEILLES
TO CHICAGO HEIGHTS. THIS LINE IS RACING NORTH AT ABOUT 60 MPH AND WILL
SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CHICAGO AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...SUCH AS NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...
AND HAZARDOUS ROADWAYS...WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGHOU"T
MUCH OF THE MORNING FOR CHICAGO.

PLEASE CONTINUE TO STAY TUNED TO RADIO...TELEVISION...OR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR UPDATES ON THIS STORM.

PURPURA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
8 00 AM CST TUE DEC 15 1987

...WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE CHICAGO METRO AREA THIS
   MORNING AND TODAY...

AT 8 00 AM...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WAS STILL FALLING ACROSS NORTHER
ILLINOIS BUT HAS LET UP A BIT SOUTH OF PEORIA.  WINDS STILL CONTINUE TO
KICK UP SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO A HALF MILE OR LESS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE STATE.  WINDS WERE STILL FROM THE NORTHEAST IN THE CHICAGO AREA
BUT HAVE TURNED TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CITY.  THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT WILL
STILL MAINTAIN THEIR STRENGTH.

IF YOU SHOVELED YOUR SNOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF YOUR DRIVEWAY TO AVOID
BEING BLOWN BACK...YOU ARE IN FOR A REAL DISAPPOINTMENT.  WINDS WILL
FLIP AROUND 180 DEGREES AND ITS BACK TO THE DRIVEWAY WE GO.

ON SLIPPERY ROADWAYS WITH POOR VISIBILITY...TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND LESS
THAN IDEAL.  NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED THIS MORNING AND NO
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
IF YOU CAN LEAVE A LITTLE LATER TODAY..DO SO.  IF NOT USE AS MUCH CAUTION
AS POSSIBLE AND LEAVE A LITTLE EARLIER FOR YOU DESTINATION.

PLEASE CONTINUEv TO STAY TUNED TO RADIO...TELEVISION...OR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR UPDATES ON THIS STORM.

BRUMER

Herscher CoCoRaHS pretty much sums it up in their note this morning. They're a terrible snow measurer based off past history, but this location is pretty rural and they were reporting 1/16 visibility around 7:45 am. Probably could have used a WWA considering conditions were deplorable this morning. It doesn't take much snow with these winds. I have 6"+ drifts in my backyard. Still snowing here and a bit breezy...

Swapped gauges at 5:10 pm, had 0.84 inch of rain at that time. Now just a trace of snow in gauge but probably not representative due to high winds gusting 38-49 MPH (33-43 KT) all night, gusting 41 MPH (36 KT) currently at KIKK AWOS. I would guess about 2 inches of new snow/snowpack depth with lots of drifting and blowing. Visibility 291347Z 1/16SM SN BLSN  

Legit nasty conditions this morning. A little surprised with the good dendrites with the high winds, but we have been in the good reflectivities. Tough measure though with it blowing around. Some spots have 2", others have 0.5", and so on and so forth. We'll call it an inch I guess. Regardless, everything covered up again and winter has come back for a bit.

Congrats to the central IL and IN peeps. 

3.2" here, which is pretty good. Brings my total to 22.0" for the season. A phenomenal start.

See you all sometime in January, when hopefully the next good/great snowfall pattern emerges... 

Rip city here. Everything has gone to sh*t. Looks like we got lucky and was far enough “south” to get into some good banding. Probably won’t last long, but it’s nice to have received…

1.0" of pure fluff here overnight. Where did that come from? 

Hopefully we can pull something out of thin air again tomorrow. 1-2" is probably the top end, but with temps in the single digits, well, arctic appeal for sure.

Need 2.2" to hit 20" for the season. A couple of days ago, thought that was a lock between the two waves. Now, better chance at not seeing a flake from both.  

Pulling for the folks in central IL/IN. Hope these systems overachieve for you.

8.5" final here. If we didn't have an afternoon lull, dd's might have been in play. Regardless, 13.9" of snow in November IMBY. Pretty remarkable. And looks like a nice little refresher coming tomorrow afternoon/evening.  What a start to the season.

Got home from work about 30 minutes ago, which was a blast BTW, and measured 8.0". Still snowing really well currently, but time is running out. Awesome event for November.  

1 minute ago, King James said:

Already gave my call but I think we are going to be in the sweet spot back to back storms. 11.2 inches for MBY is my final final call. Enjoy the storm!

Man, I hope you're right. What's crazy is you've got a good chance pull a 20" month (at least)...in November. Awesome start to the season.

13 hours ago, KeenerWx said:

Yanked some stats for Kankakee County because they have done especially incredible compared to climo this November. While I don’t live there, I can geek out about random stats. Now, consider that this data comes from COOP reports. It’s justified to question some data especially as we reach further back. But it’s what we’ve got. Pulled 1925-2025 from reporting locations nearest to Kankakee. 

Top 5 Snowfall: Month of November

Some locations in Eastern Kankakee County have already notched 2025 as #1 or will soon do so. The rest of the county will likely place at #2, with real possibility of taking #1 if things break right.

1951 - 12.3”

1959 - 9.8”

1932 - 7.2”

1950 - 7.0”

2015 - 6.3”

Gamma distribution would suggest roughly along the following periods for each breaking point in total November snowfall:

8” - 1 in 35 years

12” - 1 in 75 years

16” - 1 in 150 years

20” - 1 in 300+ years

Needless to say, the upcoming snowstorm will likely push the county into historic+ proportions for the month of November. Especially the eastern portions of the county where the highest breaking points are achievable.

Top 5 Snowstorms: Month of November

Here again areas in eastern parts of the county already notched a likely #1. The rest of the county can put these on watch to surpass. 

November 6-7, 1951 - 9.0”

November 12-14, 1959 - 8.0”

November 15-16, 1932 - 7.2”

November 29, 1942 - 6.0”

November 21-22, 2015 - 6.3”

 

Finally, it looks nearly certain that the county will grab two 4”+ events in the month of November, which hasn’t ever happened from what I gathered. 
 

Soliloquy over. Carry on. 

Nice work. Caveat on the COOP "accuracy" for sure. Some sketchy measurements in past years. Regardless, this is definitely a November for the books around here, assuming this storm acts as expected. With that said, gonna narrow my range a bit and go 6-8" final call for here. General consensus QPF numbers in the 0.60-0.80" range, ratios pretty close to 10:1, etc etc. Going to be a fun day to work tomorrow.  

4-8/6-10" looks like a decent range for here. Pretty good agreement amongst the ensembles of a range of 0.60-0.80" total QPF. Not really worried about p-type, and if it changes to snizzle, it should be after 95% of the storm has done its damage. Regardless, need 4.6" to hit double digits for November, which is pretty freaking fantastic. 

4.7" the final here. Total since yesterday was 5.4" with the Sunday morning snowfall (melted in the afternoon). Last gasp snow was really ripping, tacking on an additional inch in 30 minutes. Pretty pleased considering it's November 10, but to just miss a foot+ by 13 miles or so, eh...

EDIT: report of 9.0" in Iroquois county to the south.

2 minutes ago, King James said:

I win?

Jackpot. Congrats.

Snowing hard here right now with this last gasp.

Totally different set up, but the results kinda reminds me of this one, Feb 24, 2016. RC has fond memories. https://www.weather.gov/lot/2016feb24_snow

7 minutes ago, KeenerWx said:

What have you grabbed so far?

Measured 3.5" at 4:00 am. Still snowing, but fairly light.  

Just to put the put the Momence total in context, they're 13 miles to the east of IKK. Will be some varying storm totals from west to east in the county, to say the least.

10 minutes ago, KeenerWx said:

Hot damn. Report of 12” from Momence in Kankakee County. Not surprising giving radar presentation. Still going. At this point basically sealed as an all time lake event for them. 

Wow, awesome. This one just missed MBY. I mean I'll take what I got, but a foot... 

1 hour ago, KeenerWx said:

Someone(s) in Lake, Porter, La Porte, St Joe counties will likely net 14-18” based on available reports and what is left with this event. 
 

Likely top tier lake driven event for Kankakee county and points southward as well. Less knowledgeable about their local history with LES but I have to imagine it’s limited on noteworthy events. 

3.5" here at 4:00 am. Looking at radar since this started, the eastern half of the county (east of IKK) will do best. But yeah, only a handful of "pure" LES events that dropped 3"+ here, that I can recall. Last one was in the winter of 2013-14 (Jan 21-22).   

Pea sized hail here right now. Just pouring down. Yard is covered. Temp down 20 degrees in minutes.

Storm earlier today around 1:30 was probably the coolest looking clouds I’ve seen. Sky looked like mud with the dust, and it was dark as night. Should’ve snapped a pic, but I guess I was too much in awe.

On 2/9/2025 at 12:35 PM, Chicago WX said:

Nah, north of your line is in play too. Just loop the ensembles. GEFS, EPS, etc. It's a pretty good parade of systems coming through our region every 3-4-5 days. Just taking the 12z EPS through 9/10 days: it's this coming Wednesday, next weekend, and then next Tuesday/Wednesday. Details TBD, but I think quite a few us are in play for good snowfall in the next couple of weeks. Just takes one to phase in a piece or good chunk of the PV, and it's boom. No guarantees on that of course, but it's not improbable.

Next weekend on the 12z EPS. Pretty good agreement. Granted we would like the mean farther northwest a bit, but there are left leaners. 

 

This sorta kinda worked out. Systems themselves weren't noteworthy, but the EPS flagged them pretty well. 6" total IMBY. Wished they would've been better.

Looks like the last of the 3 will be the biggest dog of them all, as MO, southern 1/2 or 1/3 of IL/IN/OH look to grab a pretty good snowstorm this week. Funny how the "southern" storms tend to work out well this winter... 

1.5" from the WAA here. And looks like that will be final. 

35 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

yeah, def skewing more the longshot direction given ensemble looks and nothing on recent short term guidance screams good trends incoming. waa thump looks p locked and loaded for a a couple hours of well timed mood flakes tho (event of the year?) and hoping we can get a slower solution with a ull to our south manages to work out somehow

extremely busy day little time for tracking 

We're running out of time. I'd still trust the Euro/EPS over any other piece of guidance, and it has come farther northwest every run since 0z Thursday. But they are relatively small bumps. I think we're cooked to be honest, but parts of Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, and Ontario may still do well with the main show. 6z runs were a step back across the board, so that isn't good for us. If I can somehow pull 2-3" total out of this whole thing, I'll consider it a win. But, what could have been... 

Somewhat desperate times I guess, but here's the 18z GGEM. Hits NE IN, NW OH and SE MI pretty good. Decent for the rest of us.

12 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Is it too much to ask for a couple more bumps? Fully sampled now so no surprises but the trend actually feels like a trend not intra model wobbles. 

Yeah, seems that way. There's been a few models, some bad models, that have liked the idea of this storm. But getting the EC and GFS on board would be reassuring. Hopefully their respective ensembles are leading the way.