Chicago WX

Just realized its been snowing for a little over 24 hours now. Shame 75% of it was sand, but winter vibes are nonetheless high. One of the LES bands making into Kankakee county now.

RAP also picked up on this regeneration/enhancement better than the HRRR. Its done a much better job overall with this system, between the 2 short range models.

It certainly wasn't the GFS

Yeah, surge is here. Big flakes. Really, best snow rates of the entire event. Took me by surprise.

Measured 3.2" a little while ago. Best rates have been this morning. Overall, ratios have been blah, but I think we kinda knew you had to get into good bands to get the fluff. LOT's call of 3-5" was money. Over 30" for the season now IMBY. Looks like winter again. I'm pleased.

Definitely has here as better returns have moved into IKK. It's not parachutes, but actual snowflakes versus sand.

I-N-I !!! Sand accumulating as best as it can do here.

Bingo. If we’re compared short range models, 18z RAP looks to be handling things better.

Light snow has started here.

I think LOT’s call for 3-5” is good. Not sure there’s any room to go beyond unless we get under some banding and ratios really go nuts. I just want some snow to cover the landscape if we’re doing this big cold thing thru next week.

LOT goes WWA for a bigger chunk of the CWA than I expected. IKK zone text has 3-5" total. I guess its part good ratios and then banking on LES closer to the lake. NW ticks been the theme of the models since 18z yesterday. Even the 6z GFS/GEFS came in a bit farther northwest. I mean not wholesale changes, but decent increases on the northern fringes. I guess we'll see.

Versus its "not happening 18z run", sure. But its farther north compared to the 12z run, especially in S/C IL, N KY, S/C IN, into OH and SE MI. Spot in KY went from 18" on the 12z run to 5" on the 0z run.

0z HRRR will a sizable jump north/northwest compared to its 18z run. Though, it seemed to be maybe too far south with its 18z solution. And of course, spots of 10" or a bit more for the lakefront with LES. Take it to the bank clock?

I was holding out hope that the euro was going to be right, but every run erodes more and more of the northern edge. GFS took it to the woodshed on that aspect. Final call for myby is mood flakes through dim sun. Great start to this winter, but it went kapoot after that. Can’t end soon enough. Regardless, good luck to those to the east and south. Hope it over performs.

DT was the best. Going way back to the WWBB days. His call though, that is way far north. Especially in the OV thru NE. I know he loves the Euro, but I'm not sure its that zonked.