Amped

Looked like a dry air intrusion for a while. Now it clearly has the appearance of an ERC.

With all the advances in AI, a preschooler could still find the center of a TC better than ADT.

On 4/3/2023 at 11:08 AM, NorthHillsWx said:

Upgraded to cat 5 before landfall, wow 

Before landfall but not at landfall.  Kind of makes sense since it was moving so slow and the strongest winds were on the back side of the storm. The core would have interacted with land for about 6 hrs  before the strongest winds got onshore.

Just had another huge gust that woke me up.

It wouldn't be a windstorm without garbage blowing around

It's windier now than during the Tstorms

The  HRDPS sometimes beats the American mesoscale models on convective setups in the northern half of the country.  HRDPS was the only one to have the line this far southwest.

Yeah the cell on the MD/DE border looks like it's trying to produce something.

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Enhanced risk over much of PA and NJ now.

HRRR has one cell ahead of the line over Wilmington & SNJ. Watch out if that forms it will have some really good parameters.

Hopefully the crapvection disrupts that thing before it gets to Bloomington.

Another cell wants to spin up in S TN between the other two.  They're keeping the spacing well.

13 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Look at the reports so far for this event.

Doesn't do it justice, a lot of those will be EF2+

3 minutes ago, kayman said:

It's tornado warned now.

Taking almost the same track as the last one.

Another cell in eastern ARK looks like it's got a couplet forming.

Edit E of Marvell Ark needs a warning

4 minutes ago, Calderon said:

Potentially violent tornado on the south side of Covington, TN. Most of the city is south of downtown and this is really, really bad. 

That one does not look like it's going away quickly.   Possible long tracker.

The new hrr doesn't show things going full linear until 5z. 

Right on schedule, 230pm local time is when most big outbreak days usually start cranking out TW.

Wow wasn't expecting a double high risk area

Can't wait to get fringed. It's not winter until models pull the rug out from under us inside 60 hrs

If I told you that we would get near record setting Greenland blocks in December and March would anyone of the long range forecasters have predicted we'd get no snow from either?

This was the least snowy winter that I have been through. Worse than 97-98, 02-03, 11-12, and 19-20 at the locations I was in at those times.

5 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

If I extrapolate the rate it snowed here this winter,  it will take us 65 years to get that much snow

12z CMC was the best run by far.  Even if it showed no snow, it was perfect with the high position SLP track and 500mb track. I'll  take my chances with that.

1 hour ago, Heisy said:

.

If that setup can't get us an inch of snow this is officially the worst winter on record.