Amped

ICON trended back south FWIW.

Also an EPS member has a 961mb low over S IL and a GEFS member with a 965mb low in a similar spot also FWIW

Anyone remember the 12/10/97 event?  It was a bust Boston.   We ended up with about 6" of paste in SW CT when we were supposed to get rain.    I'm kind of reminded of that event from the surface map even though 500mb doesn't really look similar.

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I wouldn’t consider a threat dead at 5 days out. no need. models often do a horrible job with handling confluence 

I would agree that it’s not looking good, though, but Boston had 12-18” 4 days out for Monday and they’re getting like 2-4” now

We can't even get 2-4" modeled 4 days out.

7 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

Euro sucky for Western MD too?

Only if Maryland annexes Buffalo, Detroit and Cleveland.

Tornado chasing anyone?

Everything in the MS and OH valley has shifted north. Not the trend we want.

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But wait a minute...Remember last month when the GFS was totally on it's own showing a favorable solution for literally DAYS before finally folding? That's why I'm not sure how much to trust it right now, lol

Even if the GFS is right with the track, it's probably at least 10mbs too deep with the pressure. 

CMC 990mb primary gets overtaken by a 996mb coastal low,   also a strange solution. Coastal lows almost never  end up being weaker than the primary.

If the GFS ends up verifying this time winter is rigged against us.

GFS well west of the iCON.   Probably gonna keep it's stupid crapps runner this run.

1 minute ago, AtlanticWx said:

we're so focused on the icon we forgot the gfs started

 

Yeah better change it's mind on the Sub 980mb low over KY.   You need a Cleveland superbomb or an Mayfield Tornado to get that to happen anyway. 

ICON  is a huge hit at 141hrs. Heavy snow except for extreme southern areas.  If it could not trend anymore that'd be great.

ICON a little north of it's 18z run at 114, but well SE of the 18z GFS at 120.

1 minute ago, paulythegun said:

One Difference between 12z euro and this gfs run is on the euro, the pacific ridge develops and runs overtop of the western trough, keeping the trough strongly positive. That delays amplification that you see on 18z gfs (an apps runner)

 

Agreed,  keeping the troff positively tilted like the Euro is key here.   The blocking is never going to force a 976MB bomb over W KY  to reform east of Ocean City.  

GFS still looks to be negative tilting too early.

You can see from comparing the CMC, GFS and Euro, everything very dependent on how much the PV knocks down the heights ahead of the storm.  Seems similar to 1/26/11, without the morning round.

Finally I can fantasize about snow for 12 hrs.

We're next right?

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Big March coming. Best since 1993

Not good enough, I want 1942 or 1958

The trees are already budding

This is why I hate solutions that involve a piece of energy ejecting through the ridge.  It never works out. Haven't gotten any threats to survive inside day 6 this year.

Got a block and a 50/50 low for once. We manage to cash in while it lasts this time.

1 hour ago, Ji said:

i think this March will give us the closest chance we have had to a March 1993 type storm since that storm

It's Booked

Maybe we should all go outside look up at the sky and yell at the storm to make more fookin cold air it'll trend snowier.

I'm out of ideas for saving this winter.

36F at the surface and -0.2C at 850mb.  We just need the storm to make a little more of it's own cold air.