Amped

The GFS is getting uglier and uglier for California every run. They're going to have major flooding problems if it verifies. It's showing over 30" liquid in the northern mountains through 270hrs on this run.

Eagerly awaiting the eps control.

18z gfs would be a historic freezing rain event for the M/D line but the gfs can't forecast freezing rain.

So we're waiting for that early February pattern change again?

The PAC jet is cranking through day 10 at least. It starts to slow down a little after that.

Radar is showing the band finally  running out of gas.

The band is lighting up not,  luckily it's staying a few miles south of downtown.

On 4/29/2022 at 10:27 PM, DanLarsen34 said:

One of the craziest tornado videos you’ll ever see.

 

 

Bumping because this was the most insane tornado footage of 2022. 

The lakefront is one big ice sculpture.

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like band sinking south. 

It's been defying models all day and staying north.

The band shifted north, looks like Niagara Falls getting hit now.

Not really a break for the city unless the winds die down.

31 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Sound effect snow. In my 36 years I've never heard of such a thing. Not sure anyone on this forum has. 

The blizzard if 2015 definitely produced a pretty intense band over NYC. I suspect they get sound enhancement in a lot of other noreasters, but in 2015 it happened with very little synaptic snow around.

14" at the airport as of 8pm

There's going to be a really sharp cutoff in Amherst  and Tonawanda 

Impossible to measure snow rates in this kind of wind. 

21 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Buffalo Observation: 0 visibility

The sensor is probably iced.  It's still accurate for an upwind look.

At my parents house in sw ct. We have power here. It's raining and in the low 40s.

The west coast is getting hit with a daisy chain of storms on long range models.

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I’d say all of Erie county at this point. The moisture for the first 24 hours makes this basically a lake enhanced event versus pure lake effect snow. 

I'm mostly tracking the ice encrusted lake houses.

2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

No earthquake warning? With all this air and water moving around, the crust will be under stress, would expect a minor earthquake in NY or PA tomorrow or Saturday. Also new moon on 23rd, so a bit of additional tidal force. 

Earthquake warnings don't exist.

So we're basically all in straight down Genesee St now?

I think this storm is going to produce quite a few of these.

18 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Only game in town the next 10 days….maybe the seasonal trends will continue and this continues to shift west…WB 18Z GFS

Wave spacing is pretty bad both in front and behind next weeks potential event.   The Euro at least had a decent 500mb disturbance, even though it was a long way from catching the baroclinic zone. 

EURO is different with the warm front this run. Keeps winds more southeasterly. Might be bad for wind and coastal flooding.

It keeps trending northeast and more positively tilted.