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2 hours ago, TheGhostOfJohnBolaris said:

18z GFS seems like a much more reasonable run

Drifting around the Caribbean for 10 days in October/November doesn't really seem to likely.  Probably going to get picked up by a troff or tucked under the ridge into the central American coast  a lot sooner.   It pulls some Mahomes moves this run to stay over water.

Okay the 00z CMC has a storm, now I'm officially interested since it's on at least 2 models.

00z GFS says it's >50% of the ACE for the entire 2022 season. Seems to be the trend for the GFS this season.

Nothing in the foreseeable future.

Gfs is pure hurricane porn.  Slow wnw track, just keeps getting bigger and stronger as it moves towards the Yucatan.

51 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Some of the 18Z Euro Ensembles seem to like it.  Not impressive on satellite, and they didn't even bother running 18Z HWRF or HMON.  The drop to Lemon status suggests the NHC doesn't really expect it to develop.

Not an immediate threat. Any development will not occur until the weekend in the central  Caribbean like some EPS and GEFS members are showing.

Icon is trying to develop something at 120hrs in the S central Caribbean.  This is close to what the EPS members had.  If 90L develops it will be this weekend or early next week after it gets past the ULL.

15 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Yeah, I am having trouble believing the hundreds of bodies things. Usually USA hurricanes don't really directly kill 100+ people, obviously Katrina and Maria exceptions. A lot of the deaths occur afterwards. For example, Ike and Harvey which impacted the extremely populated Houston area had about 68 direct and 18 direct deaths. Other modern hurricanes like Ida, Michael, Sandy, Irma which were catastrophic in their own rights and did an extreme amount of damage all had "only" 50-100 direct deaths. These are all sourced from Wikipedia and I haven't done any digging of my own but if those numbers are false, it likely isn't much higher than reported.  50-100 is a lot of fatalities don't get me wrong but it's just proving to the point of Ian. Ian killing "hundreds" directly in today's modern era would be a very hard thing to do. Chances are, those reports are exaggerated. However, it would be arrogant of me to assume it's 100% false as I have seen those hundreds of deaths reports on social media.  There were also multiple chasers reporting seeing fatalities on their own. I would still lean it being exaggerated but it's an unsettling amount of people that are saying its hundreds of fatalities. 

Ian certainly had the capacity to kill hundreds if they didn't evacuate.   Keep in mind there are a lot of elderly in the Ft Myers area plenty with limited physical capability or special medication needs.

I'd feel much better about it's long term prospects if it didn't have the ULL to survive.    It will likely reverse most of the organization that occurs in the next 36hrs.

In Maria and Katrina a lot of deaths occurred in the humanitarian crisis after the storm. something to keep in mind.

The CMC is the first to show a real storm.  CMC was overdone on the westward movement of Ian and Fiona, that maybe what allows it to escape the ULL on this run.

Just hope it will be over by Thursday day 6 of this mess.

Ian was 47TJ while Charley was only 7TJ.    Also Ian was moving at about 8mph while Charley was moving close to 20. That combined with size made a big difference in storm duration.

https://www.rms.com/blog/2018/10/19/comparing-major-hurricane-michael-to-recent-gulf-hurricanes-using-integrated-kinetic-energy

10 minutes ago, marsman said:

Upslope effect from the plains to the Piedmont?

Frontal zone over the plains.  There's a 20 degree temp difference.

1 hour ago, MattPetrulli said:

Large amount of wind damage reports coming in far inland. 

Matches with the models having a coastal plane wind hole.

More fun times ahead.  

Not looking tropical anymore.  I might have guessed this was from 1/24/2000 if it was shown to me with no date.

5 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Yo, check out that baby swirl at the low center. Just to bottom right of the stream of red echoes.

That is strange almost looks like a tornado but it's not 3 dimensional.

7 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

 

This thing never quits.  Can't imagine the horror stories we'll hear in the coming days of people clinging to a tree for 10 hrs.

45 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

 

Al Roker did it in 2005

So the backside was stronger with less videos from it?

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Fort myers high tide is at 6:45

 

Only about a 1.25ft difference between high and low

Looks like a storm weakening over land and not at all due to wind shear.  I'm guessing the stationary front over NE FL has something to do with it's shear resistance since it's an unusual feature.

Life imitates overplayed gag

Just now, A-L-E-K said:

right, wasn't that area forecasted 15-18 or so? seems right on

And winds aren't even out of the NW yet