Amped

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Close? It’s there. 

Was close, before the low stalled over ocean city for 18hrs.   Central PA Demolished.

Euro is close for the NW Crew.. It's south of 12z.

GFS issue in a nutshell. Look at the pacific wave digging  off the California coast.   GFS is way east of the Euro and every other model.  It uses that system  to create some sort of a Fugiwara effect that traps the 500mb low in the northern plains.

18z GFS  even less 500mb energy ejecting.   I didn't know a Dakotas cutoff low in December was a thing

KU storm on the 23-24  that gets everyones flights canceled. That would be funny to watch.

Euro looks somewhat similar to the cmc. Not an outlier. 

GFS having some dispersion issues.

8 hours ago, METALSTORM said:

Seen more than 1 forecast mentioning the possibility extending to the mid MS Valley. LSX mentioned the possibility in their morning forecast discussion. Quite a ways away. Interesting to see if/how this shifts in the coming days.

00z gfs supports that idea. CMC is pretty similar. This is a nasty setup in a unique pattern.  Wouldn't be surprised if it extended east into GA also.

Hopefully not a repeat of last December.

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Good place to start. We can always go higher.

That'll put a big dent in it t the very least.

5 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Another great thread from Tomer.  Dec 15-20 would be a nice window...

 

Hopefully we'll get a big one.  Seems like we settled for small to moderate overhyped storms a lot the past few years.

One of the ugliest looking Hurricanes you'll see make landfall.  But I guess it's November so What'd you expect.

986mb on the dropsonde not much wind at the surface.

GFS is well west of 18Z also. Trend is towards a faster capture and northward acceleration.

GFS still hits us with a lot of rain,  but only cause a piece of the low hands back over the carolinas.  This is suspect given the trend the last few runs.

00z ICOn brings it way west over western PA.  Almost a Francis track, would be more of a tornado threat than a flood threat if it verified.

12Z GFS shows a ridiculous bounce in the track.  23.5N to 29N then back down to 26N.   I expect that will be less pronounced.

Glad it's died down now. This was one of the most impressive outbreaks of 2022.  Probably a lot in the EF2-EF4 range.

997mb with 57kts at the surface on the latest pass.   Banding around the core looks organized.  It's go time.

Center jumped north on the latest pass  to where that northern convective blob just popped up.

Center still on the north end of the convection, but at least there is convection.   Probably will help it in the long run if it can avoid interaction with Honduras.  Hopefully the 18z GFS is wrong keeping it a weak TS.

90% chance per NHC 2pm , now appears as if it will develop.  There is a lot of spread in the intensity guidance, as one would expect with a small storm.

  Currently disorganized with multiple centers, it will probably consolidate near the centroid some time tonight or tomorrow.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/t0GhtpX.png[/img]

Slight change in the HWRF from last run

12Z GFS has a storm again.  ICON and CMC also have it.   This would make for one of the larger flip flops I've seen models do if it verifies.

Gonna post Josh's Twitter on Roslyn.  Sounds pretty insane.

00z gfs and 00z CMC are in.  They are in somewhat better agreement although the CMC is further west.  

They both agree that the upper level troff lifting out  from 120hrs-132hrs will be the instigating event.   THE SW end of it gets left behind in the E Caribbean and forms a TC when the trade winds resume to the north of it.

If the ridging over the gulf day 7-10 verifies It will likely force the storm to go over Nicaragua or Honduras.