Amped

6 hours ago, SolidIcewx said:

Wonder if this storm will fall apart like Hurricane Lance did when it was approaching Hawaii a few years back

This is a large circulation driving and atmospheric river into the southwest.  Large rain totals are inevitable even if the core of the storm falls apart faster than modeled.. A similar thing happened with Hurricane Irene in 2011, and there was still major flooding across the northeast.

The eye just cleared out again.   My guess is recon finds pressure in the 935mb-940mb range. Should be able to hold on with cooler waters for another 12-18hrs given the extent of the moisture.

Raw  T is now up to 6.7.   Still one crappy shower left in the eye that needs to clear out.

Organizing quickly over the last few hours. You can see a solid cdo ring now and the eye trying to clear

GFS brings a 989mb low pretty close to LA and SD.  5-7" of rain, 50-60mph winds.

Radar looks Nasty. 60-70kt velocities shooting up I95 from Wilmington. Does anyone post on this forum anymore?

Looks like Wilmington and Philly will get hit worse than most of us did.

Raining in downtown Columbia with some wind. The bow moving through moco is aimed right at us.

The w moco segment looks like it's trying to bow also

I think it's even a bit ahead of schedule. That segment is  coming down 70 and 270 pretty fast.

Line is trying to bow west of frederick.

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

3000+ J/kg SBCAPE through the metro areas per SPC mesoanalysis

The sun's not even really out

12 minutes ago, Newman said:

The SPC MCD clearly says that the wind profiles should improve into the mid-atlantic over the next few hours in response of the rapidly approaching strong upper level and soon-to-form low level jet streak. Tornadoes are definitely a threat, though clearly wind is the biggest and everyone should know that. 

The current cells aren't moving very fast. I suspect that will keep the tor threat rather localized for now. 

Best chance for discrete cells will be in northwestern areas when the storms  first develop.  It will probably merge into some sort of an MCS by the time it gets to I95 leading to more of a widespread wind threat.

This wasn't supposed to happen for like another 20-30 years.

Still a ton of lightning.

The rotation sig went right over me, there wasn't much wind.

Finally it's ripping now. I was hoping it would smell like hot maple syrup. Really disappointing.

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

more zoomed in 

Who needs an eclipse?

Many people out and about in Time Square

https://www.earthcam.com/cams/newyork/timessquare/?cam=tsrobo1

Oh no, not grass!!!!

Latest IR eye temp on the ADT is +20C and still warming.  

903MB 155kt is the intensity estimate from the advisory.

Now has a very similar appearance to Dorian

Edit: Didn't even realize this was already posted.

You can see the intensity roller coaster from the past 48hrs.   140kts to 90kts, now  back to 140kts and still rising.

Rather substantial weakening and the track shifted well north of the island. Almost safe to say it's going to be a bust.