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Tons of damage near Hotel Emporio in the main tourist district in the back center of the bay.

Here's the Princess Hotel East of the city.

43 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

 

Interesting how that satellite view looks displaced 10 or 15 miles ne of the nhc track and the zoom earth track. 

5 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Needs to plow due N to spare the worst damage at this point. Last second left turn (aka NHC track) would actually be a huge negative.

I'm just hoping for the eyewall to go anywhere but straight up the bay and over downtown.  It will be be a slightly milder apocalypse if the eye avoids the most densely populated area.

It did finally take a westward jog in the last 15 minutes.

4 minutes ago, andyhb said:

That is one of the all time NHC discussions.

They are trying to stay calm,  but you could imagine they must have deleted the phrase "Oh Shit" from that discussion in like 20 places during editing. 

The track of these small small storms is kind of tough also cause they wobble a lot more as they approach the terrain. Looks like it's moving almost due north now, but maybe it takes a quick east wobble later.   Landfall showing between 6z and 9z so it only has a few more hours.

Forecast has it going west of Acapulco, but way too close for comfort.

Impressive wish we had radar in this area

The sun is so overrated.

Hopefully not. Don't need 2 weekends in a row ruined. Hopefully the gfs is overdone withe the wind.

I'm surprised they didn't go with subtropical.  Looking at phase space diagrams there's is a pretty shallow warm core and doesn't have much symmetry.

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Lee couldn't even make it to 68W. Of course it wasn't going to be a good hit. 

Exactly my thinking.  Hard to capture a storm 150 miles from Bermuda and hook it back into New England. It needs to track much closer to the Carolinas.

GFS already has more ridging to the NE of Lee this run.   It will probably end up further west than 18z.

The wind field has really expanded. Hurricane force winds now extend out 60 to 80 NM from the center.

Appearance has really improved the last few hours. Could be seeing RI 2.0.

12z Euro has a similar track to the GFS and CMC except its 6 to 12hrs slower with landfall. 

Why track Lee when you can track the 336hr gfs storm.

3 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

18z Euro still brings at down to 917 mb...

Just about to post Seeing 918mb on TT at 51hrs down from 949mb at 42hrs

155kt SFMR, also looks like the aircraft got jolted by turbulence at around that time.

Based on the IR the weakening has stopped at this point and the structure is improving again.   Something weird is going on if the pressure is still rising fast.

The west side of the storm appears to have expanded again the last few hours.  It's weakened enough that it's got plenty of room to RI again.

This could end up being like Typhoon Mawar back in May which fell apart for a day and then rapidly strengthened back to a super Typhoon.

2 minutes ago, MUWX said:

5-6 MB drop in the last night. Still well ahead of the HAFS-A, assuming that continues for the next hour. 

Last hour you mean. It's been keeping the steady 5-6mb /hrs pace since 11am

Sfmr probably overdone, but still safely a cat 5 now.

That eps member in NJ ain't verifying.