WeatherMonger

Here was ILX's projected changeover times from earlier. Won't let me post many images from other phone.

Not sure where to check, are there any reports of snow hitting the ground on the NW side of precip shield? Radarscope shows it both ILX and DVN radars. Thicknesses support it.

3 minutes ago, frostfern said:

Hope you get your big dog total.  Yesterday I was expecting a goose egg IMBY.

I'm just worried because I have been in the bullseye totals for way longer than one should be. Every run of every model. 

It's one of those, if it seems too good to be true, it probably is things. Stopping to get some whiskey on the way home, have to work tomorrow and need to sleep

GFS still loves me, the rest of you got me like

The force is strong with all you north of me people. Doing my best to hold it in place

ILX late morning update

UPDATE...
Issued at 1100 AM CST Tue Feb 1 2022

No significant adjustments needed with the morning update in terms
of precipitation amounts and timing for the winter storm event.
We did coordinate an update to the headline to transition Edgar
and Clark counties from a watch to a winter storm warning.
Adjacent Indiana counties to the east also upgraded to a warning
with this mornings forecast update.

As for current weather conditions, we are seeing a corridor of
rain showers developing from SW to NE across central IL. The
precip is developing in a shallow saturated lower level cloud
layer. Therefore rainfall amounts will remain on the light side
today. Deeper moisture and UVVs will arrive later this afternoon
and this evening, as the cold front progresses from NW to SE
across the area. By 6 pm, the cold front should have progressed to
a line from Champaign to Taylorville, just east of I-55. Low level
cold air behind the front will change the rain to snow soonest
across our NW counties, west of the Illinois River. That
transition zone will shift to the SE with time tonight, reaching
just north of I-70 by 6 am Wednesday. A freezing rain/sleet
transition zone will occur during the change-over from rain to
snow. Where that zone stalls out later tonight and Wednesday will
be where the higher potential of icing and sleet will occur,
roughly between I-70 and I-72. Snowfall amounts tonight could
reach up to 2-4" for our northern counties, with travel impacts
likely for the Wed morning commute as far south as a line from
Paris to Mattoon to Taylorville.

Further updates to this winter storm forecast will come toward
mid-afternoon.

ILX put out a 1 amd 2 day snowfall record graphic.

I'm going with 14-17" so both are likely safe for Springfield.

Forecast has 11-23" here, see wherr things stand in 24 hours.

14 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

I'm starting to hate the 0Z NAM runs, this one not as bad as last nights....

Ok, I lied. Let's just lock it in now. Kuchera or 10:1 is fine.

I'm starting to hate the 0Z NAM runs, this one not as bad as last nights....

ILX impact graphic

Warning here

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
318 PM CST Mon Jan 31 2022

ILZ029-031-036>038-040>055-011100-
/O.UPG.KILX.WS.A.0001.220202T0300Z-220204T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KILX.WS.W.0001.220202T0300Z-220204T0000Z/
Peoria-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler-Mason-Logan-
De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott-Morgan-
Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-
Including the cities of Peoria, Eureka, Canton, Pekin,
Bloomington, Normal, Rushville, Havana, Lincoln, Clinton,
Monticello, Champaign, Urbana, Danville, Beardstown, Petersburg,
Winchester, Jacksonville, Springfield, Taylorville, Decatur,
Sullivan, and Tuscola
318 PM CST Mon Jan 31 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Significant snow likely with a brief period of mixed
  precipitation. Total snow accumulations in excess of 12 inches
  with locally higher amounts possible. Ice accumulations up to one
  tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph will create
  blowing and drifting snow Wednesday night into Thursday.

Beat to the punch

Lone county just went warned for McDonough county in west central IL

SREF Plume at 12.79" and looks to be about finished

26 minutes ago, Chambana said:

12z euro crushes E Central Illinois and Central Indiana. 
 

oops a little behind didn’t see the posts above me pertaining to it. 

You said east central, that still include SPI in the highest band? Seen what it did on 10:1 but ratios will be lower at the onset so no clue what Kuchera showed.

18 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Like I told you before, you're golden. Enjoy it. You're getting 

Appreciate the vote in confidence 

15.5" in the hourly grid.

We'll see

Just now, StormChaser4Life said:

Good ol' model emotional whiplash. Some models north, others south. Definitely a little nervous a south trend may continue again. Hoping at this point it will be just be small bumps north or south. I haven't had double digit snow in a while now. This looks like my best shot. 

Good news is it is running out of time, for the first waves anyway.

I'm still a bit pessimistic, been in the bullseye for way too long to stay in it. That just doesn't happen.

Think this might be the first big winter storm where Bastardi has not been mentioned.

Apologies in advance if his name is forbidden here

Did he retire or get shamed off the intenet?

I just don't know what to think.....

9Z SREF plume mean just over 11" 

IlX and WPC

Watching the model runs the next 36 hours

7 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

LOL. I wouldn't worry man. I honestly still think you're fine man. Don't let NAM worry you. GFS and Euro wallop you. I wouldn't be shocked if this trends south again. Anything is still on the table. I still think you're in a better position than me imo. 

If only I was an optimist

I'll take an inch of rain and 2" snow over sleet and ice in any amounts. This is going to end up an I-74 to I-80 special in IL.

Gotta get the SE MI screwzone in somehow

GFS rolling....