WeatherMonger

Just upgraded to a high wind warning here for gusts to 60. Had a 54mph gust last hour according to airport.

44 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Lol hrrr also has the screw zone over me. Peoria dome lives on. But obviously mesoscale banding impossible to nail till the day of. 

ILX cracking me up. Sadly I don't know if they are correct and LSX is a bit agressive, but the advisory map lools funky

Think they could have at least issued an advisory this afternoon. 

Lackluster system at best for here regardless, don't want a 2nd half of winter 1st half spring winter.

8 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Haha. Cuz I'm more use to disappointment than snowstorms panning out. PTSD. Also there's too many damn GHD day storms to remember. Lol. As much as I want to hope it ends up as nw as gem and gfs I'm not getting my hopes up because a more se like euro also is just as plausible. All comes down to the phasing.

My works Christmas party got canceled due to the pre Christmas "storm" on 12/22. Just announced earlier this week it is rescheduled for 1/25. 

Holding out hope they have to cancel yet again

Merry Christmas everyone!!

ILX latest on it. Calling 1-3" conservative for now. 

.UPDATE... Issued at 1009 AM CST Tue Dec 20 2022

The main change this morning is an earlier peak in wintry precip seen in the latest model guidance, which is now forwarded about 6 hours. In other words, the most robust snowfall rates appear to come Thursday afternoon and extend through the Thursday evening commute. Snowfall rates may approach 1"/hr for a brief time, and with winds whipping at 35-45 mph, visibility will significantly deteriorate. Blizzard-like conditions will make travel extremely difficult or impossible Thursday evening. Then, as snow begins to taper Friday morning, blowing and drifting snow has the potential to prolong travel impacts into Saturday morning. At this time, our posture hasn`t changed much on the strong winds and extreme cold. We remain conservative on snowfall amounts with 1-3" inches likely (90% confidence) across the Winter Storm Watch area. The potential for 6" + is still lurking under any sort of mesoscale banding, but realistically, we need another 12-24 hours before we try to pinpoint where that heavier axis will develop. This is when some of the hi-res ensemble guidance (HREF model) will come available for us to better resolve mesoscale banding.

11 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I'm not excited yet because there's too many moving pieces and a lot that can go wrong. Still worried gfs could be right with a further south and east track. Really won't know for a few more days till we get sampling of upper data and see how this 1st wave evolves Mon. 

I'm not excited either, one thing that has a bit of optimism going for me is the OP, CS doesn't make fantasy threads or overhype. I always pay attention when he starts them. Still remember the monster clipper from accuwx days, he started the thread less than 48 hours out when no one else had mentioned it,  it had WSWarnings from IA into OH with 6"+ totals, had to have been '07-'09 or thereabouts. Miss the historical data that site had in it. Forever lost.

46 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

You're not lying. Def trust hrrr more than nam. Really hoping euro has this one slam dunked. Gfs solution would just suck. Lol. So close yet so far away. 

Truthfully, I cannot remember the last time this year I was excited about the weather ahead. It has been that benign for so long, I've grown accustomed to yawntivity throughout the atmosphere  

2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I see 18z gfs is continuing to gfs. I'm eager to see this in nam's range in a few days.

I think I'll hold off until HRRR range and then wait for the last minute adjustment, NAM has broke my heart more times than I can count inside of 48 hours 

ILX AFD

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST Sat Dec 17 2022

The focus for this period continues to be:
(1) Extreme cold;
(2) Strong winds; and
(3) Some snow.

Extreme Cold:
Confidence remains high that an arctic outbreak will occur in wake
of a departing winter storm system Thursday - Saturday.
Deterministic NBM guidance is suggesting daily highs in the low
teens or single digits with overnight lows near or below zero.
These temperatures, coupled with strong winds, will result in wind
chill values of 10-30 degF below zero both Friday and Saturday
mornings. Surprisingly, as cold as its going to get, it will fall
well short of records. Less extreme cold returns following
Christmas day, but temperatures will remain well below normal for
this time of year.

Winds:
Strong baroclinicity and a rapidly deepening surface low will
result in very gusty winds Thursday - Saturday across the
Midwest. Sustained speeds between 20-25 mph will be accompanied by
frequent gusts between 30-40 mph. There is now enough semblance
among guidance to make this a high confidence threat.

Snow:
While the 12z GFS and its suite of ensemble guidance has come into
better alignment with the CMC, ECMWF, and UKMET with regards to a
closed, upper-low evolving across the Midwest on Thursday, there
are still notable differences with respect to amplitude, timing,
and orientation of this feature. The most probable outcome for
central Illinois at this juncture favors the Grand Ensemble mean,
which paints about 0.25" of QPF across our area. With a snow ratio
of 12:1, this puts us at a few inches of accumulating snow. At
this point, with such high variance among forecast guidance, it
does little good to provide synoptic and mesoanalysis of what
could happen 5-6 days out. But looking at the conceptual model of
the system, there`s a strong likelihood that somebody across the
Midwest gets hammered by this one.

ILX pretty late with their AFD. Late morning update ended with this.

Edit, N/M garbage phone having caching issues. Checked with other phone and it was put at 2:49

Quote

We`ll soon begin analyzing the latest suite of 12z deterministic
and ensemble guidance to assess next week`s hazard potential.
Dangerously cold conditions and accumulating snow will headline
this afternoon`s AFD.

Guessing by the lack of ppsts today is much ado about nothing, but with as boring as this Spring has been here I'll take anything I can get. Could probably count on one hand the days I have heard thunder thus far.

Expansive slight risk added

15 minutes ago, frostfern said:

I'm getting Flagstaff AZ.  The page isn't working. 

Think you just needed to click on APX star

Bit odd seeing a pulse squall line, thing has made very little progress east as it starts to weaken in the midsection.

Was worried about some dirt track races getting rained out, shouldn't be a problem at all. At least for the ones I'm wanting to watch.

2 confirmed tornados ongoing in west central IL. No watch out and SPC doesn't even have 2% chance in SWODY 1

Currently 73/61 here

Enhanced dropped from central IL just as the sun comes out to laugh. If it isn't cleared out by 8:30am anymorr I lose hope, and even then we usually get a surprise capping. 

Give me some thunder amd I'll be contemt.

Large moderate introduced for tomorrow

Think I found the culprit, synoptic winds howling right now so doubt they try fixing it tonight.

Warned now, wonder if airport recorded a gust or widespread power outage prompted it

Power went out here as thunderstorm moved in, not sure if it was a bit of mixing down or high synoptic winds earlier created something for the rain to take advantage of.

Bit of thunder but not much. Oil lamps are something not many have or appreciate anymore. Glad I have a few.

Precip has arrived, falling as snow pellets at a good clip. Better than freezing rain and/or sleet. 

13 hours ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Curious if this warm nose will get as north as some models suggest. Hrrr bringing it up past I74. ILX was thinking it would mostly impact areas between I70 and I72 but some hi res models are saying otherwise. 

Misting here, not flurries. Might get a bit more freezing rain than expected.

3 hours ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I would be ecstatic for a solid advisory event! No lack of appreciation here! I was saying most guidance has 1-2in which is sub advisory levels. But I will take what I can get! I was mostly saying this system is a letdown compared to last few systems but any winter precip is good to me. 

You get any thunder today?

Got woke up about 4:10 this morning with some good thunder and lightning, then torrential bursts of rainfall. Radar estimates of 1.5" but airport recordings overnight have been down for a while now.

Either way, been a long time since a good thunderstorm. I'll trade snow for that any day.

Nothing left but drifts and plow mounds here.

Currently have exhaust fans and doors open at work, won't be long before snow becomes a hinderance. March 15th is my transition to Spring mode, but I know there'll be cold and possibly snow after that.