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WeatherMonger

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    Feb 1-3rd GHD III Part 3

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    1 minute ago, janetjanet998 said:

    On a related note 

    Peoria City schools on remote learning today and tomorrow 

    Kids can't even have a snow day when it snows anymore thanks to the aftermath of COVID times

     

    I agree, they can't even have a "school day" anymore, regardless of weather. 

     

     

    • Confused 1
    • Weenie 1

    Feb 1-3rd GHD III Part 3

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    16 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

    as I was typing

    URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE  
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
    903 PM CST WED FEB 2 2022  
      
    ILZ027>030-036-031115-  
    /O.CAN.KILX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220204T0000Z/  
    /O.NEW.KILX.WW.Y.0004.220203T0303Z-220204T0000Z/  
    KNOX-STARK-PEORIA-MARSHALL-FULTON-  
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF GALESBURG, TOULON, PEORIA, LACON,   
    AND CANTON  
    903 PM CST WED FEB 2 2022  
       
    ..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY  
       
    ..WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED  
      
    * WHAT...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW   
      ACCUMULATIONS UNDER ONE INCH.  
      
    * WHERE...KNOX, STARK, PEORIA, MARSHALL AND FULTON COUNTIES.  
      
    * WHEN...UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY.  
      

    Commented before I read this post, but schools will still remain closed I'm sure.

    Feb 1-3rd GHD III Part 3

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    23 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

    it's over here , not sure why ILX still has me under a winter storm warning thru tomorrow 

    had about 10-12 inches in the city isolated spots up to 13 in the metro 

    I suspect ILX will downgrade soon to a WAA for blowing snow and maybe another inch 

    it stopped snowing here about 5 hours ago and may not snow again

    Lots schools and other places closing again tomorrow partly because of the winter storm warning for up to 6 more inches

     

    a complete joke 

    it was evident 24 hours ago the 2nd system was trending south and I even mentioned if ILX would downgrade the 2nd half of the  almost 48 hour winter storm warning in the other thread

    but to keep it going in the new zones this afternoon is just pathetic and will be a another example of "the weatherman always gets it wrong"

     

     

     

    They mentioned this in their PM AFD

     

    " 

    For now, plan to
maintain the Winter Storm Warning north of the Illinois River
Valley due to these impacts and despite the bulk of the snow
having already occurred there. At some point, this warning may be
replaced with an advisory. Otherwise, the bulk of the Winter Storm
Warning remains on track."

     

    They'd be damned if they do or damned if they don't.

     

    Schools won't reopen in the morning on 3 hours notice, most had already closed for both days due to the Blizzard Warning talk yesterday. 

    Feb 1-3rd GHD III Part 3

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    Looks like they have calmed the winds a bit for tonight and tomorrow here. What I shoveled earlier just blew back in and erased it. 

    Additional snow seems yo be going by the wayside as well, will end up at or just shy of 8". 

     

    While I never thought 2 feet was going to happen which a lot of the models showed, I did think into the teens was possible until late last evening.

     

    Happy none the less, except for the shoveling. Using the 4 wheeler and plow tomorrow if winds are down, other wise mailman path and sidewalks until they do.

    Feb 1-3rd GHD III Part 3

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    Back at home, work let people leave if they wanted to.

    Have to be around 6" or so, drifting so bad be hard to get a good measurement. Shoveled a path from back door to yard and a small area in the grass for my dog. 

     

    Roads were pretty bad, but no cars im ditches which for the first real snow of the year is impressive. Only vehicle I seen with problems was a road plow, was plowing an entrance to the state fairgrounds and must have git his front tire in a dip or hole, couldn't go forward or backward so must not have had much salt in the bed.

    Feb 1-3rd GHD III Part 3

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    ILX keeps mentioning the possibility of a Blizzard Warning tomorrow. I know there's a lull expected later this afternoon/evening but have to wonder if they'll pull the trigger early? Definitely not 10:1 or lower ratios right now and gusty winds will keep snow blowing even during the lull in snow falling.

    Feb 1-3rd GHD III Part 3

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    Curious as to why some have said not to use Kuchera maps for totals? I'm not looking for a reason to inflate totals IMBY by any means, but when the snow starts here it will be 5, 6 or 7:1,  for several hours and may even jump back down to those until temps really drop. Isn't there inflation in that using 10:1? 

     

    I always thought Kuchera used lesser and better ratios  for a more realistic number. I watched the beginnings of the 0Z HRRR rum comparing between the two and 10:1 was better than using Kuchera.

     

    I understand both maps are grain of salt and manual reviews needed(I'm not that smart :lol: ), but when I went through a GFS run using Bufkit output there were weird fluctuations in ratios throughout it as well.

    Been using the 10:1 maps when looking at totals, but they seem somewhat inflated at the beginning and somewhat low towards the end. Is that average start and finish enough to use that over Kuchera?

     

    Sorry for the long post during a model run :lol:

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