WeatherMonger

SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST Wed Feb 16 2022

Some of the more significant highlights:

1) Snow amounts have been increased into the 6-10" range from near
Quincy northeast to just north of Bloomington. Latest HREF guidance
shows the heaviest snow rates between noon and 3 pm along this axis,
generally 1" per hour with a high potential for rates of 2" per hour
in west central Illinois. A sharp gradient on the south edge will be
noted, with amounts of 1-3" from around Taylorville to Danville.

2) Freezing rain accumulations from 1/10 to 2/10". HREF hints at
potential quarter inch accumulations near I-70 during the afternoon.

3) Wind gusts 40-45 mph across east central Illinois during the
afternoon, as 3-hour pressure changes of 5-8 mb are noted late
afternoon and early evening. Will need to closely monitor the
potential for some blizzard conditions during the afternoon, with
HREF probabilities around 30% of visibility below a half mile and
sustained winds above 30 mph. Blowing snow has been added to the
forecast.

4) No significant changes in the winter storm warning expanded
earlier, though the advisory was expanded south to I-70. Both were
extended until 9 pm Thursday.

5) Flood watch remains in place, with the heaviest rain axis
remaining south of I-70. See the Hydrology section below.

ILX upped warning totals here to 5-8" with a tenth or two of ice accrual.

38 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Euro still being a stubborn mule and won't budge. Here's to hoping hi res guidance is right for a change. 

Your 15Z SREF Plume bumped up a tad. Still over 8" and less than a half an inch difference from here.

Upgraded to WSWarning with mid morning update. 3-5" snow and up to 2 tenths of an inch of ice.

4 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

Euro is not pretty and SE of the 18z run. 

Promise I'm not singling you out, your comments just send me into smartass/sarcasm mode

15 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

No clue, have to ask Capital Airport here in Springfield. ILX says our official total was 12 inches, reported by Capital Airport. 

 

Capital Airport on Thursday reported 11.4" as an Official NWS OBS. Then for the Official storm tally Capital Airport took it back to 9.7" for some reason.

 

I've disputed some of their tallies before, but never like this one. They actually reported the 11.4" to ILX for recording.

 

 

 

 

Looks like somewhere along the line a correction was made. Now shows it corrected, but not sure when they did it.

15 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Try a flamethrower. Lol. How much did you end up with btw? 

No clue, have to ask Capital Airport here in Springfield. ILX says our official total was 12 inches, reported by Capital Airport. 

Capital Airport on Thursday reported 11.4" as an Official NWS OBS. Then for the Official storm tally Capital Airport took it back to 9.7" for some reason.

I've disputed some of their tallies before, but never like this one. They actually reported the 11.4" to ILX for recording.

1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Look at dat hodo. 1000+ SRH. Can we say snow wedges? :p someone call SyFy. Movie incoming. All jokes aside really impressive snow sounding

I'm actually rooting for you with this one. Don't want to shovel snow and GHD3 proved using the plow on 4 wheeler sucks for my drive. Pulled the carb off the snowblower I bought 5 years ago and never ran right and it's a chit show at best.

I can't win over the next 60 hours no matter what I do. Last result is a big rosebud and a few 20lb propane tanks.

5 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

I don't know what I would do without you 

5 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

Southward bound 0z GEFS

2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

So here's the million dollar question. Will the nam/gfs/hrrr/rap camps be right with stronger and more nw or will weaker and se euro prevail? It does have support from other foreign guidance. I'm honestly not sure what to think. 

I'll let you know sometime Thursday night into Friday morning, hold tight

22 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Got the link? 

Still have this bookmarked

https://ruc.noaa.gov/ruc/RUC/

23 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Why is it so hard to get a nice phased system in the Midwest these days? Always seems to trend to strung out pos. 

ILX sounded the alarm

I don't know what the official snowfall will be for KSPI, yesterday at noon they sent in an Official report of 11.4" to ILX. Afternoon daily climate report reflected it. Yet the full days report dropped it back down to Wed. total of 7.9 plus only 1.8" yesterday. Monthly summary shows it same way.

How does that happen at an official NWS record keeping?

Looks like 11.4 will be the official tally here, have to see what end of day report looks like.

In roughly 36 hours we went from a 8.6" deficit to 2.3" above normal since Dec. 1st.

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Hi

I feel for ya, it's one of those snows where trying to keep it up every few hours/inches wasn't possible. The drifts at my gate I shoveled 3 times. First time was right back to where it was in about 45 minutes 2nd was overnight but worse. Hoping not to have a 4th

I had to do the 18.5" from the Palm Sunday snow back in '13 by hand and it was a wetter snow. I need to get the little snow blower I have running again, only used it once but it would be way better for my situation being able to direct it where I need it

Just now, StormChaser4Life said:

Definitely a little under what was forecasted for your area but still a great storm for you! 

After clearing the drive and somewhat back yard/drive it's enough

Couldn't imagine what 2 feet plus would have been like, 6-7' drifts?

7 minutes ago, Chambana said:

Fun storm. Let’s do it again. Winds still howling like crazy. Rural roads are impassable. 

I'm good for awhile this would have absolutely sucked shoveling by hand

31 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Hard to measure because of drifting but several reports anywhere from 10-12in around me. Was a 12in report on my road to the east and 11in+ report just to my south. Peoria airport to my southwest had officially 10.6in. Definitely best winter storm I have had in years. Had many periods of moderate snow and several of heavy snow. One thing I found interesting was that flake size overall through the event was pretty small but we still managed to get good totals probably owing to good ratios with very cold temperatures. The two things I wish that happened was for wave 2 to hit up here also and for more wind during the snowfall. But it was still a great storm. I got my double digit snowfall and I'm happy 

The initial 7.9" report that came in yesterday was from .58" QPF, equates to 13.65:1 SLR

Guessing the 3.5+ that has fallen since midnight will be even higher.

Last flurry has fallen here, storm over.

Picture doesn't do the drift justice. Starts about 4 feet in front of me all the way to the gate. Had to dig out in front of the gate to get it open. Only got about half the drift out just kept  pushing it into backyard. I don't use this part of the drive much. Pretty much just cleared the gate then made a path for my dog and cleared a section of grass for him to do his thing. 

11.4"

1200 PM     HEAVY SNOW       SPRINGFIELD             39.80N 89.65W
02/03/2022  M11.4 INCH       SANGAMON           IL   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            OFFICIAL TOTAL SO FAR. 1.2" SINCE 6 AM.

HWO calling for an additional 2" here, that would likely get us over a foot should it materialize. Airport usually sends in an official report at noon, still waiting for ILX to send out new LSR's.

About to put the plow on the 4 wheeler and start building a mountain. 16 degrees with a windchill of 3. Ugh

We have to be nearing a foot here, been a steady light but accumulating snow all day thus far. Freaking yard front and back averaging about feet with all the damn drifting.

Not sure where I am going to put all this crap when I do the driveway. Back part of my driveway has a 3 foot drift about 50 feet long and 6 feet wide. 

Guessing the rest of the night for snow goes like this.

Was hoping for some snow and drifting to get a day off tomorrow. Headed to bed faced with reality.