WeatherMonger

This latest snowfall was 50:1 ratios here per the official recording. Might be the best ratioed snowfall I have knowingly experienced. Guess it helps explain the over performance as well.

16 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Literally makes 0 sense. Like the snow continues up into our area with similar amounts. HRRR was the driest with 2-3in but other models had 3-5in+. Glad you're getting in on the action finally. 

Allegedly , yet to be determined

15 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Really confused why ILX didn't extend advisories north. Pretty much all models extend the snow south of advisory criteria well north. 

 

Maybe they coordinated this one with LSX and will issue another coordinated with DVN/LOT?

Under a WWA tomorrow night through Monday for 2-5"

Was surprised to wake up to a decent,for this winter, snowfall. Ended up close to 2" and still some fluffy light snow/flurries falling. Airport reported an official total of 1.5" at noon. Wasn't supposed to get much, so a bit of a bonus.

I concede to yet another 6-7 day forecast that got my hopes up. At this point I'd rather see enough of a lapse in Winter to wash my truck. Car washes are all shut down with the deep cold, could use a run through two or three timea

From the ILX FB page, a bit early on the call maybe? I know they lean rather heavily on WPC but, 5 days out....

WPC Day 5 snow probs and their model choice via extended forecast discussion

The WPC medium-range forecast package was derived from a composite blend of the 12Z ECMWF/EC ensemble mean, the 18Z GFS/GEFS, together with a smaller contribution from the 12Z CMC/CMC mean and the 01Z NBM. Mostly ensemble means were used on Days 6 and 7 given the increasing model uncertainties.

Snowing again, but doubt much is gained from it.

Guessing an inch hear. It picked up just as I was getting busy at work. Was surprised at how mich had accumulated on the busier roads on the drive home

Longest duration of a snowpack in quite some time, only about 2" or so deep so nothing to write home about.

9 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Idk why our local weather was saying 1-3in. We will be lucky to see an inch. Heaviest band setting up south which is what hi res suggested but looks like we could see pixie dust to light snow up here north of the main band. 

Not changing anything either. Has me for 1-2", been light snow/flurries all day but nothing more than a dusting.

Quote

UPDATE...
Issued at 1059 AM CST Wed Feb 10 2021

Broad area of light snow in warm advection aloft with some
heavier frontogenetical bands embedded occurring over much of
central IL largely as expected, focusing on I-72 northward at this
time. This afternoon, the focus for heavier banding should shift
southward, however overall lift decreases at the same time, so
PoPs generally decrease by evening. Temperatures look good, with
highs forecast to range from 13 in Galesburg to 26 in
Lawrenceville, only a few degrees above current temperatures.
Current forecast is largely on track with these features, so no
major updates needed this morning

59 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Day after Christmas 2009.


.

Looked at that one and was in the 30-50:1, don't think it is the one I am thinking of. I joined Accuwx in January of 2010 so would have been after that. I know Skilling had a mention of it but can't find it via google. Did find one of his Q&A's where he confirms a different 90+:1 ratio event, but on a smaller level snow wise. It would have had to have been between early 2010 and probably 2015. I remember you specifically mentioning the ratios afterwards and Skilling had a brief blog about it as well, hence my searching for him mentioning it. Wish Jesse would have archived accuwx forums rather than taking them down completely.

https://books.google.com/books?id=7pPoBAAAQBAJ&pg=PT12&lpg=PT12&dq=Tom+skilling+high+snow+ratio&source=bl&ots=_Z7jZUOJhN&sig=ACfU3U36yifZgJrkopcYsKbFge1sOicHqg&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj7_4zW1dvuAhWDVs0KHUtJBXY4ChDoATAHegQICBAC#v=onepage&q=Tom skilling high snow ratio&f=false

13 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Has to be close to a record high snow:liquid ratio there. For once the wxbell kuchie maps were spot on. 

There was an event several years ago, I'm sure @Chicago Storm remembers it and may even know the exact date, but Chicago got 8-10 inches on something in the I want to say 90's:1 SLR. It was back when he still frequented the Accuwx forums. Was a crazy ratio and one of the times I was truly weather jealous of the northerners 

ILX late morning update

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1036 AM CST Mon Feb 8 2021

Increased PoPs in the western third of CWA over the next few hours
as snow moves in. The current forecast snow/liquid ratios of 19:1 in
the northern part of our CWA may be too low, as precip reports from
last night`s snow indicate snow/liquid ratios of 25:1 or greater.
May increase the ratios, especially over the northern half of the
CWA, resulting in incrementally higher snow totals, but that
won`t change the thinking that a broad 1" of fluffy snow occurs
with this system, with 1-2" south of the I-70 corridor where
higher QPF is expected.

Monitoring our far southeastern counties for the potential of light
freezing drizzle around midnight this evening. No changes to the
forecast yet, but model sounding suggest profiles may lose ice
crystals around that time. However, ascent will be very weak,
reducing confidence in the likelihood of any freezing drizzle
occuring

Have picked up a solid 1/2" maybe closer to 3/4" and still snowing.

Official tally goes down as .9" on .06" QPF for a 15:1 ratio. Think I have a tad more than that IMBY but unless it's a sharp cut off usually go with the airport recording as only a few miles away.

Quote

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1107 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2021

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>053-061-071000-
/O.CON.KILX.WC.Y.0001.210207T0600Z-210207T1700Z/
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-
Schuyler-Mason-Logan-De Witt-Cass-Menard-Scott-Morgan-Sangamon-
Christian-Macon-Shelby-
Including the cities of Galesburg, Toulon, Peoria, Lacon, Eureka,
Canton, Pekin, Bloomington, Normal, Rushville, Havana, Lincoln,
Clinton, Beardstown, Petersburg, Winchester, Jacksonville,
Springfield, Taylorville, Decatur, and Shelbyville
1107 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM CST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills of 15 below
  to 25 below zero.

* WHERE...Portions of central and west central Illinois, with the
  lowest wind chills north of I-74.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM CST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...The cold wind chills could cause frostbite on
  exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...While the snow has ended, many roads
  remain snow covered and slick. Continue to use caution while
  traveling overnight, especially with the frigid temperatures.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves.

36 hours out please

Probably right at an inch, maybe a hair over. Considering how things panned out elsewhere I'll take it. It will at least look as cold as it feels when looking out the windows. might be able to make it to 1.5" be tough though.

Lightly traveled streets amd sidewalks with a coating, doesn't contrasts with the grass enough to see it on yards. Stesdy light snow currently

Flurries just started here, wish it were a bigger event

13 and 14Z HRRR bumped me to 2". Just can't fall for any of the other threads yet, I'll wait until they each come into HRRR range and save myself the disappointment

9Z SREF plume back to reality. 1.5" at KSPI.

St. Louis to Paducah  if we don't cash in by Tuesday. 

Mother Nature does not play reverse psychology games, she simply punishes a few over and over each year, every year.

12Z top 0Z bottom. Not wetter, maybe better ratios