WeatherMonger

2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

I-70 and south is getting it today.

Yeah, SPC could have done without the NW bump of the slight to along the IL river here. Storm that did pass through was easily covered by the marginal, HRRR did well with it staying to my south

I'm severe weather starved here

Wasn't even yawn worthy. Same old song and dance, storm skirts by, showers stabilize things, anything behind will weaken as it approaches.

I did hear some thunder though....

ILX

Quote

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

A surface low centered over eastern Iowa this afternoon will
continue to lift east-northeast into Michigan tonight. A warm front
is positioned from northern Illinois into northern Indiana, with a
cold front stretched from the center of the low to the southern
Plains. Showers and storms are ongoing across the Illinois River
Valley region as of 3 PM, tied to 850 mb moisture transport and WAA.
As the cold front continues to push east over the next few hours,
storms are anticipated to become reinforced. A special sounding
released at ILX at 18Z depicted mid-level lapse rates between 7-8
C/km, 0-6 km shear of 80+ kts, and 0-3 km around 40 kts. Instability
has grown since the release of the sounding, with SPC mesoscale
analysis depicting about 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE spread across a
good portion of the area as dewpoints are sitting in the low to mid
50s. Because of this, strong to severe storms remain possible later
this afternoon into this evening - primary time frame between 5 and
10 pm. Straight-line hodographs indicate storm motion will be mostly
parallel to the front and suggest that storms should develop into
line segments. Primary threats appear to be large hail and damaging
winds. At this time, low-level shear does not look supportive of
tornadoes, though it cannot be entirely ruled out. Precipitation
amounts will be on the lighter side due to the progressiveness of
the front. QPF totals of around a 0.50" or less is expected, though
locally higher amounts will be possible in any strong storms as
PWATs are near 1.00" and warm cloud depths are over 10k feet.

Took awhile to clear out here, not sure it'll pan out IMBY.

Give me some thunder and I'll be happy.

Quote

Mesoscale Discussion 0281
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0234 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

   Areas affected...South-central Missouri into western Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 271934Z - 272130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along ahead
   of cold front this afternoon and evening. Severe wind gusts and hail
   will be possible with any strong storms. A weather watch is
   possible.

   DISCUSSION...Afternoon visible satellite data showed deepening
   cumulus towers located along and east of a diffuse cold front and
   wave cyclone stretching from northeast Oklahoma into southern
   Missouri. Deepening of the initial convective updrafts and eventual
   thunderstorm development is likely over the next couple of hours as
   the lower atmosphere continues to destabilize ahead of a mid-level
   trough across the upper Midwest. SPC mesoanalysis shows surface
   dewpoints in the 50s F overlain by mid-level lapse rates approaching
   8 C/km are supporting 500-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE across much southern
   Missouri. Surface obs and regional VWPs show strongly veered surface
   flow with long but mostly straight line hodographs. Deep-layer shear
   near 60 kts should favor a mix of splitting cells and short line
   segments capable of damaging wind gusts and severe hail. With much
   of the mid-level flow parallel to the slow moving surface front and
   high LCLs favoring stronger cold pool development, storm mergers and
   upscale growth with a greater threat for damaging wind gusts appears
   likely as storms move northeast toward western Illinois later
   tonight. A weather watch may be needed in the next couple of hours
   for the threat of severe hail/wind through this evening.

   ..Lyons/Thompson.. 03/27/2021

Kept it marginal with little or bo change to delineation, possible upgrade at 20Z

Text posted above

Marginal introduced

...MO...IA...IL...
   Early day rain and storms should quickly shift east across MO and AR
   along the low-level jet axis. Although the surface low will be
   slowly filling, daytime heating will produce a plume of steep
   low-level lapse rates across much of central MO and extending into
   southwest IA. With 50s F dewpoints and cold air aloft, the result
   will be an uncapped and sufficiently unstable air mass to support
   low-topped cells, including a few supercells. A broken arc of storms
   is expected to form after 18Z over western MO, moving northeastward
   toward southern IA and western IL by 00Z. Veering winds with height
   as well as favorable low-level buoyancy may support a brief tornado,
   along with marginal hail.

Got my first dose of Pfizer yesterday, go back April 2nd for the second. Sore where the needle went in but no issues, hopefully the same way on 2nd shot.

Scratch that, jumped 3 degrees past hour,make that 64

Fair

64°F

18°C

Currently 61 degrees, first 60 degree day since Dec. 23rd. Makes it hard to wish for snow/cold anymore. Bring on Spring

Doesn't make sense to me, 5.8" on .56" QPF when it was 3 degrees or colder and snow depth is 3". 

29 minutes ago, Chambana said:

Agreed. We deserve this. 2007 Vday blizzard, 2014 PV blizzard, and this storm best in the last 15 years. 

Did you miss out on GHD 2011?

Guessing by visual depth and shoveling earlier KSPI will end up in the 6.5 - 7.5" range. i don't know how you accurately measure with todays conditions. Drove by the airport on the way home and it's an expansive flatland with little wind block as one could imagine, but the road was bare and wind blown snow whisking across it.

Just now, Snownado said:

Is anyone here other than in Chicago getting snow ?

Snowing here still, can't say what is falling vs what is blowing though.

I honestly don't know what to call it here, I'd say 5" is a safe bet. Looks to be winding down pretty quick, way quicker than the midnight hault mentioned in the AFD. 4:30pm climo report had .2 QPF and no data for snowfall.

Got home from work and had 14"drifts behind the gate and towards backyard, shoveled a path for the dog to do its thing and had to run to the store. Windshield flash froze in about 10 minutes, glazed over again while in the store. Got back and started shoveling the drive and shovel broke. Tried to fire up the 4 wheeler and it wouldn't start, so i had a half shoveled drive and walk way which is not drifted back over.

I don't know why I root these things on as pissed as I was getting earlier

8 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

P sure heavier now, gonna measure soon 

Looks like a Dab+

Not sure what was wind blown vs what has fallen but truck had about 2" on it since 11am. Leave work in 8 minutes, only have a normally 17 minute drive. Have a feeling it's going to be a tad longer tonight.

ILX AFD, they don't seem as worried as I am 

Quote

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
316 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 307 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

Moderate to at times heavy snow will continue through this evening
and eventually taper off to flurries overnight tonight.
Temperatures will be cold tonight, falling into the single digits
and even below zero is some locations near the Illinois River
Valley. Temperatures will warm into the teens Tuesday under partly
to mostly cloudy skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

Snow is ongoing and increasing in intensity this afternoon across
central Illinois. Water vapor imagery reveals a negatively tilted
shortwave lifting across portions of mid Mississippi Valley,
ejecting out ahead of main upper low centered over eastern KS.
Snow is expected to peak across the area through around midnight
tonight when the H5 low finally begins to shift across central
Illinois marking the back edge of the accumulating snow.

No major changes to the going forecast made this afternoon with
the heaviest snow still expected to be focused over the eastern
part of the state. From this afternoon through tonight, in
addition to snow that fell last night into this morning, an
additional 3 to 6 inches of snow is possible along the Illinois
River Valley (under the Winter Weather Advisory), 4 to 8 inches
from the I-55 to I-57 corridors, and 6 to 10 inches east of I-57.
Latest RAP does depict a modest layer of FGen over east central
Illinois and regional radar does show a couple bands of heavier
snow lifting north. Does seem the better banding potential will be
through the remainder of the afternoon and then will diminish
with time this evening. Under the heavier bands, visibility less
than a quarter mile and snow rates of around an inch per hour or
slightly higher are possible, at least briefly

Finally pouring flakes here, took forever for the better banding to get here. Hopefully this is the start of the onslaught and no more lulls.

35 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

ILX finally on the ball

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF GALESBURG, TOULON, PEORIA, LACON, EUREKA,  
CANTON, PEKIN, RUSHVILLE, HAVANA, AND BEARDSTOWN  
1201 PM CST MON FEB 15 2021  
  
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST  
TUESDAY...   
..WIND CHILL WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT NOON CST TODAY  
  
* WHAT...SNOW. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES.  
  
* WHERE...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  

They bumped this area of their warning up as well.

12 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I don't believe it at all. ILX is way underestimating this. I think event total here will easily be 5-7in in metro Peoria. 

My guess is they are heavily weighted to WPC guidance.

WPC doesn't give anywhere in IL aside from Chicago area of exceeding 8". I thought it would be a  it higher probs than that in at least eastern and south eastern IL. They have the better snows well east compared to modeling, same with the next system.

ILX AFD update

Quote

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

After a relative lull in snow intensity and coverage, regional
radar mosaic shows moderate to heavy snow spreading back north
from southern Illinois and Missouri. Several upstream observations
report visibility has been reduced to between a quarter and three
quarters of a mile indicating more moderate to heavy snow is
occurring. Radar shows the heaviest snow is still lining up to
fall east of the Illinois River. Going forecast seems to be on
track given observational trends and still expect some of the
heaviest snow to occur this afternoon through sunset this evening
with impacts to the evening commute

Not used to this, usually when we get a couple inches of snow and it starts blowing around in the single digits that was it. Can't remember the last time it was this cold before a big snow, my guess would be in the 80's but could have been more recent.

Down to flurries here

Curious as to what the ratios have been here. Going by the airport tally of .06" liquid we'd have 1.2" at 20:1. Definitely have more than that.

No clue how much snow has fallen here, wind is blowing it pretty good.If I had to guesstimate would say 2 - 2 1/2" been coming down at a decent rate for a bit now.

Sitting at 0 degrees to boot