WeatherMonger

30 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

ok   when are we gonna have a meso discussion about a watch for Illinois with those possibly tornadic supercells approaching?

Was in MD 1039

A downstream watch into eastern MO and perhaps western IL may be needed if an organized wind threat becomes apparent.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
244 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

A strong cold front will push into the region from the northwest
tonight. Strong to severe storms are possible ahead of the front,
into tonight. Scattered showers and a few storms will linger
behind the front on Monday, along with much cooler temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

Complex of storms has weakened as it pushed into western IL early
this afternoon. 19z ILX sounding indicated a layer of warm air
centered at 850 mb, providing a significant cap for deeper
convective development. Besides the cap, the atmosphere is
supportive of robust convection given 60 kt winds at 500 mb and
mid level lapse rates at 7C/km. Latest forecast soundings and SPC
mesoanalysis show a weaker cap over eastern IL, which could be
eroded from outflow moving in from the west. Latest hi-res
visibile satellite imagery shows modest cu development east of
I-57. This will be the area to watch over the next few hours, and
the last few runs of the HRRR have shown discrete convection here
between 21-00z. All severe modes would be possible given nearly 3k
J/kg MLCAPE and strong deep layer shear near 50kt, but with the
warm front located farther north near I-80, damaging winds and
hail are primary threats.

A line of thunderstorms is expected to develop ahead of a cold
front across eastern Iowa early this evening, then push into the
northwest CWA towards mid evening. Severe storms are possible
given moderate instability and favorable deep layer shear.
Damaging winds gusts are the primary threat, with hail and an
isolated QLCS tornado possible. A localized flash flood threat
exists due to high rainfall rates when PWs peak over 1.75" this
evening. As the line shifts farther southeast into central IL near
I-55 towards midnight, conditions become less favorable for both
severe and flash flooding with decreasing instability. The
weakening trend continues overnight with diminishing storm
coverage expected near and south of I-70 late. Southwest gradient
winds gusting over 20 mph ahead of the front this evening, will
veer west northwest post frontal late tonight, also gusting over
20 mph.

SPC with no changes

Hoping all the cloud cover from the weakening rain to the NW hasn't ruined it altogether. Definitely not falling in line with SPC's original timing. Reed Timmer stated this morning that things didn't look as promising in Eastern IA and IL and opted not to chase.

Mesoscale Discussion 1035
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0202 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

   Areas affected...Southern Iowa...northern Missouri...and northeast
   Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 201902Z - 202100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may develop along
   a southeastward moving cold front by the mid afternoon hours. The
   strongest storms may pose a severe hail and damaging wind risk. A
   watch is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible imagery shows a growing field of
   cumulus along the southern IA/NE border in the vicinity of a cold
   front and nearby surface trough (with a shallower field noted along
   the front stretching back to the southwest into northern KS). The
   cumulus along the IA/NE border have taken on more agitated
   characteristics with some vertical development noted in the past
   30-60 minutes. Modified morning soundings, as well as RAP forecast
   soundings and mesoanalysis estimates, suggest that MLCIN is waning
   as temperatures climb into the upper 80s with upper 60s/low 70s
   dewpoints. These trends suggests that convective initiation is
   possible in the coming hours (likely by mid afternoon) - initially
   within the IA/NE cumulus field and then possibly along the cold
   front to the southwest. 

   A favorable parameter space just ahead of the cold front (1000-2000
   J/kg MLCAPE and 40-45 knots of effective bulk shear) should support
   strong convection. Deep-layer flow oriented nearly orthogonal to the
   cold front may support initially discrete to semi-discrete modes
   that may pose a hail/wind threat. However, slightly cooler/stable
   outflow from prior convection across northern MO/southern IA and
   increasing inhibition southwestward into KS introduce some
   uncertainty into the spatial extent of the threat. Air mass recovery
   trends across northern MO/southern IA will continue to be monitored
   and a watch is possible in the coming hours.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 06/20/2021

Won't imbed, no clue on legitimacy of it.

https://www.facebook.com/1599166719/posts/10223565364794423/

IA lit up

Lightning starting up in IA, not going to stay up for any additional rounds. A bit of whiskey tonight and might not even be awakened by thunder if another round happens 

We'll see

I don't know why ILX puts a warning on some of these storms. Think they jumped the gun on this second warning. Barely even heavy rain, lasted about 3 minutes

Built up to the North, now under a warning,    

Not expecting much, but man it has been a boring stretch lately

Now warned but going to miss to my south

Couple cells starting to my west near Jacksonville

Lightning strike to my NW, hoping that's the signal the western end of things might be set to go.

Usually get capped when we're in the 90's and storms fail, hit 99 here today.

2 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

I think we might have a poster on the forum from Mt. Zion area.

You may be referencing @Central Illinois

When I first seen this I thought it could be the wall cloud dissipating or something. Never seen a tornado or tornadic cell in daylight. Wasn't any rotation that I could see but not sure how evident it is from a few miles away. Just seen a ring like pattern and was intrigued.

Anyone see any confirmed debris signature in the Pleasant Plains area when it was confirmed? Waiting to hear back from a high school friend there in hope's he faired well.

I'm not sure what I was looking at to my NW and eventual North. I couldn't see any clear cut rotation to be the wall cloud of the storm. I have a horrible view from my backyard and kept wandering out trying to get a view in gaps between obstructions and lightning was my biggest fear lol. Wasn't a whole lot of thunder nor lightning here. I think it was just a bit too far away for me to have had a visual on the main part of the storm.

Maybe this tail end Charlie can give me a thunderstorm warning.

Was still some pretty cool cloud formations regardless.

Dead calm here

I'm about here

Sirens going off here, we'll south of the Storm but they are mainly for Sherman about 4 miles away

Stuck in the Dr. office watching radarscope and each warning picks up speed

I'm not overly optimistic, they always weaken or split as they near and restrengthem after passing. I just hate being windowless 

Hit 79 today, also think a wind advisory could have been justified. Been some good gusts and limbs coming down this afternoon/evening.

Decent little storm moved through here, was surprised when I pulled up radar ILX put a warning on it. Came through a bit differently than usual. First a batch of heavy rain moved through, then a few CTG's with some decent thunder claps. Then it started a light rain and thought the warning was kneejerk. About 8:12 the winds started coming in, had about 4 or 5 pockets of winds I wouod guesstimate near 45'ish mph. Next door neighbor has a maple thathas been slowly dieing the past few years and neighbor across the street has two 75 foot ash about 38" in diameter that are completely dead. Was expecting some branches to come down or worse, but the way the winds gusted in short bursts they all survived. Didn't get any hail here, wish there was lightning behind the leading edge though. Lools lioe just showers the rest of the way.

I could see some areas within the warning getting severe gusts. Definitely ready for Spring to spring though.

On 4/3/2021 at 10:25 PM, bowtie` said:

There are those of us that remember living pre-internet with no problem at all. You young whipper-snappers. Get off of my lawn!

I'm pre-internet as well , born 4 months after this event.

Apologies for not knowing where to post, but can you imagine 47 years ago and no access to models or Meso Discussions...