Snowstorms

12z Euro with two rain storms between now and next weekend. Zzzzz...

11 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

NURSE:     No change in the patient's condition since last week DOCTOR!

DOCTOR:     This patient is Dead!     Report to my office at once Nurse!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Man every winter on that, expect 2008 locally, was bad lol. Terrible pattern for all of us. 

Got an inch this morning. It all melted now. 

The January 7-8 threat has all but vanished on the models. Models show another rain maker/cutter around the 10th. 

As Alek said, if it ain't gonna snow let it torch. 

4 hours ago, OHweather said:

It's a bad pattern for snow (outside of a fluke event that I wouldn't get excited about until it's two days out) until at least the 20th-ish...jussst so we're clear I'm not expecting a flip anytime soon, but I think one comes before the end of the month. 

Regardless of a pattern change, it sucks to lose December and the better part of January especially during the lowest sun angle too. It's hard to make up for that. 

Expectations for this winter were pretty high back in Fall. Part of that was due to low solar, descending QBO and weak El Nino. All of which would contribute towards blocking over the Arctic and Pacific. Although models show a pretty stout Aleutian ridge, there's still no sign of any pending snowstorms, even in the fantasy range. Let's not forget we lost December and half of January last year too. There have been comparisons being made between 2007-08 and the upcoming H5 pattern. Any insight on that? 

This pattern has been very prevalent in the last few years. A lot of winters pre 1980 and even some 80's winters featured more consistent cold and snowy weather in DJFM. However, in recent times it feels like it's being crunched down into just a few weeks of intense wintry weather. Take for example, 2017-18. It was generally cold and snowy from December till early January and again in the first 2 weeks in February. Outside of those couple weeks it was mild to exceptionally warm for most of us. Spring/Summer 2019 featured strong blocking over the Arctic which nearly decimated the sea ice especially around the Sea of Chukotsk. However, as been the theme in recent years, Arctic blocking seems to be nonexistent in the winter. Could that be related to the heat being released from the Arctic during the fall after the sea ice loss in the summer? 

21 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

i'd say 2021 will be rocking but we all know that's not true

Hopefully its a La Niña. 

8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Can we get some interesting weather. Please.

It's been a really long time since we've had a fully phased snowstorm in the region. 

Pretty big changes on the 18z NAM vs 12z NAM. Story of this winter. 

Happy New Years everyone! Let's hope this decade is a better one. 

December stats at YYZ: 

High: 36.8F, Highest temp: 52F

Low: 24.2F, Lowest temp: 1.9F 

Mean: 30.5F (2.4F above avg)  

Snowfall: 11.5" (exactly average) 

Rain: 1.1" (near average) 

Days below freezing: 8 (normal is 12) 

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Here's the H5 panel from 92' . What a wicked setup. 

 

Is this the one around December 11th? Do you have a radar image of it? This storm apparently dropped 12-20" across my neck of the woods too. 

55 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

That is a bad look for the east.  Might be ok for the Midwest, at least parts of it.

Looks like 2016-17 which had endless rain and warmth through much of January. 

59 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Looking like there may be an inch or two of snow on Tuesday.

 

Hoping it does cool down the week of the 6th. The Weather Network's winter forecast looks to be in trouble - they've been calling for an exceptionally cold winter for Ontario, Quebec and the eastern Prairies.

These wraparound snows don't always workout, so it'll probably be an inch with heavy flurries most likely. 

Interestingly enough, depending how much snow and sleet Ottawa receives over the next few days, we could either surpass them or be closely tied with them for December. Don't think thats ever happened before. 

Sucks to see another cutter on the 3rd. 

34F and rain right now. The worst combo ever. 

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Yes, it can and has happened.  Dec 2012/Jan 2013 was brutal in Chicago.  More recently, Jan/Feb 2017 took futility to a new level with 0.6" TOTAL.

0.6"? Wow thats crazy! Don't think YYZ has ever had such a futility record before. 

I doubt we'll repeat that again. I think after Jan 10th we'll see more wintry chances as the Pacific readjusts itself. 

16 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Shouldn't be hard to get more snow than December.

Shouldn't be.

Has Chicago ever experienced well below normal snowfall in consecutive months (Dec-Jan)? 

2 hours ago, Spanks45 said:

Its good to see Canada cold, they need it. But we know what that means for our weather down here...It should make everyone a bit nervous seeing the last temperature that cold was in January of 2012, what was the winter like in this neck of the woods in 2011/2012? 

Most of Canada is above normal temp wise lol with the exception of far northern Yukon. It's not a good pattern for any of us. 2011-12 sucked for us too. 

Managed to shake off those pesky low-level clouds and the temp rose briefly to 51F at 11am. It has fallen to 41F now lol. 

5 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Serious cold in AK Russia, that dam will break. Timing it

Fifty Shades of 2011-12. 

2 hours ago, Stebo said:

Week 1 Blowtorch

Week 2 near to slightly above normal.

Week 3 same only cooler than normal to the north and west

Week 4 same

Week 5 and beyond dartboard.

One thing that is consistent, it gets cold out west and stays that way through the duration.

Sounds like a La Nina pattern.

19 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Or what if it ties again like Nov/Dec 2018.  That would be something.

Here are the stats for the 4 years when Dec avg high exceeded Nov average high.  It's 4 times, not 3... I missed 1877 earlier.

Nov 1877:  46.2 ; Dec 1877:  49.1

Nov 1889:  43.1 ; Dec 1889:  47.2

Nov 1891:  39.4 ; Dec 1891:  41.6

Nov 1959:  41.3 ; Dec 1959:  41.5

How did each of those winters fare in JFM? 

The 1800s were a much different climate state, so they wouldn't be good analogs, but still curious to know. 

Only maxed out at 37F so far. Low level clouds keeping us cool compared to 53F in Windsor lol. 

Here's a couple that stand out.

2019 

Late Jan storm that dropped 4" followed by a 13.5" storm and near record cold

Mid July Thunderstorm that dropped 3.0" in less than 2 hrs

Oct 1 heat, YYZ topped out at 89.2F (warmest ever) 

Nov snowstorm

As for 2010 - 2018 heres a couple that stand out for me. 

2010: Mar torch and June thunderstorms that dropped 7.5" during the month

2011: GHD Fail storm (snow ratios screwed us from a forecasted 12+" to a mere 5" actual) and July heatwave 

2012: The garbage winter, Morch, July heatwave and very wet Fall 

2013: Feb storm that dropped 16”, July Toronto floods with 4.96” in a few hours and crazy Dec ice storm 

2014: Jan, Feb and Mar record breaking cold and Feb storm that dropped 12.0" 

2015: Coldest month (Feb) ever at YYZ with a mean temp of 9.3F , Feb storm that dropped 10.0" and record warmth Dec

2016: Mini Feb cold snap (YYZ dropped to -15.5F), Apr snowstorm and 2016 summer heat  

2017: Late Feb record warmth, extremely wet May and miserable spring, June thunderstorm, late Sept heatwave and a Christmas eve storm followed by record cold 

2018: Early Jan record cold, late Feb record warmth,  mid Apr sleet storm, early July heatwave, Aug thunderstorms and Nov cold/snow 

The 240 hr snow map on the 12z Euro is a joke. Three storms and all of them are rain lol.