Snowstorms

15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Near whiteout conditions now

I was gonna go near Niagara today for a client meeting. But then I decided to reschedule seeing that haha! 

The 0z Euro looked pretty interesting. A weak ridge across the PNW (neutral PNA), nice little block across the north with the PV nearby in Hudson Bay, and a weak ridge out ahead in the SE. It wouldn't be a large storm IMO,  but a potent one for some if it were to occur. 

If the 16-17th storm were to occur, it would most likely be an overrunning event. The departing low this weekend would likely create a "block" around Newfoundland and without a decent ridge out ahead of the storm, there's little room for amplification. 

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah it would've been interesting to do composite snowfall maps for each of those months, but not sure how to do that.  Despite the December temp composite running on the warm side (around/over 1F warmer than 1981-2010 averages in much of the Midwest for a 20 year composite is actually kinda noteworthy), I suspect a December snow composite over the same period would be closer to if not a bit snowier than average in some areas as there has been a wildly snowy December or two... 2000 immediately comes to mind.

Not surprising since we've seen a lot of "snowless" Decembers over the past 20 years. I'm sure years like 2018, 2015, 2011 and 2006 come to mind. However, when you consider some of the more snowier Decembers, a majority of them were La Nina's (2000, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2016 and 2017). 

45 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Does look like a limited snow producer unfortunately, even if it does take that kind of track.  Models have been flip flopping on track though.  

I agree, no consistency. Euro has a coaster. 

I feel like models tend to underplay CAD in these type of events, especially this far out. We got a pretty decent pool of cold air near Hudson Bay and a departing PV. Let's see. 

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Big Gulf to Lakes low is back on the 12z GFS.  

Look's like a whole lot of rain.  

Measured 2.5" this morning with the clipper snow. 

Little icing on the cake. 

Looking good for 2-4" across much of the GTA into Hamilton tomorrow as a clipper passes on thru. Going to be a messy morning commute. Potential is there for lake enhancement with 4-5" in some localized areas. 

Couple models showing 1-3" across the GTA on Friday with a weak clipper passing by. Nothing too serious, just some light snow lol. 

20 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

November 2019 finished with a mean temp of 35.8F, which makes it the 13th coldest November on record. More seasonable to even mild weather pushed the ranking up a bit, as the first 20 days of Nov were the coldest on record.

 

The total snowfall of 9.5" makes it the 4th snowiest November on record. The only snowier Novembers are 1966 (11.8"), 1933 (10.6") and 1932 (10.1").

I find it interesting how YYZ's top snowiest Novembers aren't the same or atleast similar to Detroit's. YYZ's top 3 snowiest Novembers are 1940 (24.0"), 1950 (19.7") and 2003 (10.7"). 

On 12/2/2019 at 11:05 AM, Toronto4 said:

Pretty nice surprise snowfall overnight. So many moving parts with this system and it created model chaos in the days leading up and on the day of it (warm air aloft and timing of transfer of primary low to coastal low).

Hope you and the rest of the Toronto crew are doing well (snowstormcanuck, Ottawa Blizzard, mississaugasnow, blizzardof96, Torontonian, etc). Hoping for a decent winter season for the GTA and southern Ontario. Awesome start to winter in November and I have a feeling it's going to be a good one.

 

I agree, great start to the season! YYZ now up to 31.6cm (12.4"). 

I am doing great, hope you are as well!  Hoping for another exciting season. 

November 2019 stats at YYZ. Avgs in bracket. 

High: 40.1F (45.5F)

Low: 26.9F (31.4F)

Mean: 33.6F (38.3F) - Tied for 3rd coldest on record

Total snow: 7.5" (2.9") 

About ~3.2" fell last night at YYZ (still snowing). This doesn't include the 1.2" that fell yesterday. 

Not a total bust, but the PL yesterday certainly put a dent on what could have been a 4-6" snowstorm (prior to last night's snowfall).

A whole lot of zzz's for the first week of December. 

12 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Dec 2016 was colder than average here. This post made me look at the cold season months this decade at Detroit to see how many were colder than average and how many were warmer than average. To keep it simple, 0.1° either way is either colder or warmer than average, I did not do any of that 1ﾟ within normal type of stuff.

 

 Not surprisingly, December is the black sheep for cold anomalies. Averages exist for a reason, sometimes it's above, sometimes it's below. Cold season months more often than not finished colder than avg this decade.

2010s

Nov 6 cold, 4 mild

Dec 4 cold, 6 mild (ASSUMING 2019 is mild)

Jan 6 cold, 4 mild

Feb 5 cold, 5 mild

Mar 7 cold, 3 mild

Apr 6 cold, 4 mild

Relatively the same here at YYZ. However,  I give a bit of a range and therefore consider "near normal" as a metric too. 

Trends and the overall pattern seems to favour a warm December. Although, I don't think it will be a blowtorch like 2011-12 or 2015. As it stands a mix between 2014 and 2018 seems likely. Both of which were +ENSO years. Colder December's are more common in La Nina's. 

Quite the model battle going on right now for tomorrow's storm. Practically all 12z runs this afternoon have the GTA getting 4-8" tomorrow. Euro going all out with 8-12" .  Latest HRRR has more SLT/PL than snow and keeps the GTA to within 2-4". 

I'm still skeptical as to how much snow falls tomorrow. How quickly we transition over to snow will depend how much the GTA will get. Niagara/Buffalo area will likely get a mix between FZRA and PL. 

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

CFS didn't go the way that most of us would have wanted in the last few runs.  Looking at the weeklies, it has a colder turn later in the month though.

Not surprising. This entire decade for the most part has had warm December's with the exception of 2010, 2013, and 2017. This year is no different! 

There's a good chance we see a north pacific jet extension by the 2nd of week of December which will likely flood the nation with warm Pacific air. Now whether that continues till Christmas or beyond, remains to be seen. 

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

On another note, Chicago is chasing some history in the form of the wettest year on record.  A drier than average November has set things back a bit but still currently in 5th place.

Wettest years on record:

2008:  50.86"

2011:  49.83"

1983:  49.35"

2018:  49.23"

2019:  47.62" and counting

Wow! That's alot of precipitation. 

2008 is YYZ's wettest year as well, but we only got 41.3" that year. Quite the contrast given the relatively short distance between Chicago and Toronto. 

It's also crazy how 4 out of the top 5 have occurred in the last 11 years.

Looking like a wintry mess with a mixed bag of precipitation across Southern Ontario into Western New York this weekend. 

From London up until Hamilton and eastward towards Buffalo/Niagara, there could be a decent amount of ice accretion, with upwards of 0.30-0.40". Freezing rain seems more likely given the layer of warmth at 700 and 850mb. 

The GTA is far more tricker. It seems to be riding along the thin layer of warmth at 700mb with subfreezing surface temperatures. This would likely imply a sleet changing to snow type of event. Now how quickly that transition happens and whether any deformation band sets up will depend how much snow falls. As of now I'm leaning towards 2-3", but this is a tricky forecast. 

P.S. Happy Thanksgiving to my fellow Americans!  

4 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

ENS take the EPO/AO/NAO/PNA all neutral to +, some very +.

Could have a decent stretch of mild and winter-less upcoming.

+ENSO and +IOD forcing playing a role in that. As well, models are hinting at the MJO trekking its way into phases 2-3 near mid-December which translates to a warmer pattern for us. Going to have to see if the upcoming -NAO/AO can hold on a bit longer. In recent years, Atlantic blocking has been abysmal so it wouldn't surprise me if it breaks down quickly. 

Regardless, the cooler anomalies in the first week of December won't be anything insane. Without proper blocking, it'll most likely be transient cold. 

It was 6.9F this morning at YYZ making it the third coldest November low on record. 

Surrounding suburbs in the GTA were below 5F. 

3 hours ago, DAFF said:

Good Grief ... 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/record-snowfall-windsor-1.5356220

With the amount of controversy and criticism EC receives for YYZ's snow measuring techniques, this isn't surprising. 

I'd assume it has something to do with a lack of funding. But even then, Windsor is a major city in Ontario and this is unacceptable. 

YYZ recorded 5.3" beating the previous record of 1.1" set back in 1983, haha. A general 5-7" fell across the GTA. I personally recorded 6.0". 

With a low of ~16.3F this morning, YYZ beat the previous record of 17.9F set back in 1937. We should beat tomorrows record  of 14.7F set back in 1986 as well. 

2.0" at YYZ as of 3pm. It will continue snowing till midnight. 

2 minutes ago, Stebo said:

RGEM drops almost 10 for most of Metro Detroit

Wouldn't that be like a top 5 snowstorm for Detroit in November if that did happen?