Snowstorms

Thick low level clouds keeping temps around 36F. 

Merry Christmas everyone, hope it's a blessed one! 

58 minutes ago, Hazey said:

St. John’s getting the goods. Congrats to them for a true white Christmas. About 90% snow cover here but it’s rough. Inch or two at best. I’ll take it. Hopefully pattern improves in the new year. Merry Christmas to all.

We had a couple inches on the ground 2-3 days ago, it has all but melted. It was 48F yesterday lol. St. John's about to get a blizzard tonight. 

Merry Christmas! 

9 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Latest three 12z Euro runs.... total cave.

Would be a big score for the GFS if this ends up being the final outcome. 

2 years ago we had that Christmas eve snowstorm. It wasn't a big storm, but it still dropped a couple inches for some of us. 

Since 2014 we've been in a +ENSO feature across the region. 2016-17 was a borderline La Nina and the 2017-18 La Nina barely lasted 6 months. If we take away those years, the last true La Nina event was 2011-12. Cold Decembers are more closely correlated with La Nina's so unless next year is a decent La Nina, the chances of another crappy December are higher than usual. 

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The atmosphere keeps coming up with these Niña-like extended Pacific Jet patterns. The last official La Niña ended in March 2018. But at least 16-17 and 17-18 had their favorable KU event periods.

I thought jet extensions are more common in Nino's and jet retractions are commonly observed in Nina's? 

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

I don't know if it's seeing all this bare ground or what but the month seems milder than it has been to date.  Will be accelerating the positive departures for sure.

Nothing new to see here. 

That map looks like almost every December since 2010.

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Don't mind me.  Been a tough month locally.  Optimism hasn't worked so...

The lack of snow has gotten to Hoosier's head, that he's starting to believe the GFS is right. 

52 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Bad idea, lease it. Buying a car is the worst possible investment, other than a boat.

Leasing is good if you plan to switch cars every few years. It's the same concept as renting a condo, its not yours, unless you plan to buy it at the end of the lease term.

Financing is good if you plan to keep it long-term (>4 years). 

This is probably the sunniest Christmas week I can remember, lol. 

On 12/18/2019 at 8:30 AM, Snow88 said:

LI is horrible with the taxes. Way too expensive.

 

Avg price of houses in Toronto is around $1,000,000. 

Guess we ain't the only ones. Sucks nowadays. 

Euro is zzzz through the 27th. 

The last time we saw a consistently cold and snowy winter from late Nov till March was 2013-14. And can you believe that winter was more than 5 years ago? 

Other winters since then:

2014-15: Nov, Jan-March

2015-16: Don't get me started

2016-17: Mostly Dec, the rest was just torch city

2017-18: All around decent minus mid Jan and second half of Feb

2018-19: Nov, Jan-early March

Prior to 13-14, the only other consistent winters in recent times were 10-11 and 08-09. Ironically all 3 of them were cold neutrals or Nina's. 

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

It must be n/w of the big cities.  BOS has 11.5" this month... a nice total but not into elite territory.

Yeah Worcester has 25.3" this month. Seems like elite territory. It would be for most of us in the Lakes region. 

Just measured 2.8" right now. This wasn't picked up by any model btw. It's still snowing so I'd suspect we'll hit 3.0" when all is said and done. 

A few pics I took about an hour ago, around the Vaughan/Brampton border (5 minutes north of Toronto proper).

18 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Theyve had several storms but i didnt realize any location was having one of their snowiest. 

I was just scrolling through the New England forum and saw that this December is one of their top snowiest, not the snowiest ever. Some places are around 25-30+" already, lol. 

As Hoosier said, Nino Decembers are hit or miss unlike Nina's. 

Nice little burst of snow this morning. 1-2" possible across the GTA. 

While some of us are dealing with a snowless and uneventful December, parts of the NE and New England are having one of their snowiest Decembers, lol. Quite the contrast. 

I think none of us at this point would mind a repeat of the Jan 99 storm. This month would become a distant memory if it happened.

24 minutes ago, Stebo said:

 

ZZZZZ

The total accumulated precip map looks the same too. Legit not even a clipper or a fantasy 360 hr storm. 

That Pacific pattern (jet streak below) gotta change and until it doesn't, we're going to be stuck in this regime. On the bright side, the GEFS is trying to build a ridge around Alaska near the end of December which should hopefully allow for a -EPO to develop. Anything to get out of this storm-less pattern. 

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

Remarkably consistent storm track pattern since last winter. Plenty of cutters through the Great Lakes and storms that hug the coast. Occasionally we see a weak disturbance in the Great Lakes acting to suppress a southern stream low. Rapidly deepening benchmark snowstorms have been missing. This is in stark contrast to our last excellent benchmark season in 2017-2018 which featured a 950mb benchmark blizzard. In some ways, the snowfall gradient is s throwback to earlier times. The heaviest snowfall amounts are higher inland and lower along the immediate South Shore Coast. This is a reversal from 2013 to 2018 where the heaviest snow falls occurred along the coastal plain. How long the is this type of unfavorable dominant Pacific Jet pattern lasts is anyone’s guess.
 

A weak Nina or cold neutral would do good for most of us especially after a +ENSO season. The strong +IOD is definitely playing a role in strengthening the Pacific Jet which is also correlated with +ENSO anomalies. It's been a mediocre month. Hoping for a turn around come January-February. 

On a side note, would be nice to experience a Nor'easter as the biggest storms up here are usually between 12-16". Cheers! 

Euro still remains storm free past Christmas. 

12 years ago today, I remember the infamous winter storm that dropped 8-12+" from SEMI to the GTA.

If only we could get a repeat, lol.