Snowstorms
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Posts posted by Snowstorms
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Both Euro and CMC showing 8" at YYZ. I'm still sticking with my 4-6" call for now.
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1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:
Will the warm flip back to cold again(and then back and back and back) or is the warm going to stick?
Last winter lasted five weeks. Maybe this winter will last two weeks.
2015-16 and 2016-17 were pretty abysmal outside of Dec 16 locally.
It feels like our winters are getting shorter.
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RGEM with 6" through 48 hours for me and still snowing. I'll take it and run.
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41 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:
Take a look at the data for January 1950 in Toronto. Bear in mind that this followed a cold November. Lots of flip flopping that month...this month kind of looks similar.
That winter was a moderate La Nina. Totally different atmospheric set-up despite the similar anomalies.
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3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:
Well its just the OP run and still too far out to take too seriously. But the EPS look a little better. All ENS show it warm next weekend. Hopefully just a temporarily blip. Don't think it locks into place.
The Euro says it's an early spring before the Groundhog could even make a point.
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29 minutes ago, frankdp23 said:
Too much Niño influence on the pattern since the 2015-16 super Niño. We haven't had a sustained cold winter since 2014-15.
Need a Niña with some AO/NAO blocking like 2010-11, 2008-09, 2000-01 or 1995-96 to set the balance right for a cold winter.
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As per the Euro, the cold air doesn't last long and by the 22nd, we're above freezing again. This is in part due to the jet cutting overtop of the region and a lack of blocking in the Pacific. It almost resembles a -PNA in the west. And instead of a 50/50 Low off the coast of Newfoundland, there's a massive ridge at 192 hrs. There's nothing amazing about this pattern or set-up.
Edit: By 216hrs the entire nation is flooded with warm pacific air while the cold air retreats to the Arctic.
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9 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:
we're riding the canadian now
The HRDPS (higher resolution) shows 3-4" in Chicago with snow still falling at 48 hrs.
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Based on latest trends, I would seem to think 4-6" is a good call for the GTA. If a solution like the GFS pans out with warmer sfc temps then I'd lean closer to 4". However, a majority of the other models keep us below freezing and if that were to pan out, I wouldn't be surprised to see some localized amounts near 7-8". Still riding 4-6".
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6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:
Apparently it's in CT. Posters there talking about/showing pictures of plants/trees budding all over there!
Geez that's crazy, but it wouldn't surprise me. Even up this way we've only had 10 days below freezing since Dec 1 and a 3" rainer a couple days ago lol.
Terrible.
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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:
Don't look now but GFS has another cutter next weekend.
Its time for spring.
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Should be some decent sampling by tonight's 00z runs. So take it fwiw.
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Literally nothing on the models after this weekends storm.
Maybe some light snow around Jan 23, but even that has some mixing lol.
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14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:
Vegas fired Gallant after the Sabres beat them last night...Crazy! They are an expansion team with unprecedented success as a new team. He's a fantastic coach. I like Krueger but would 100% fire him for Gallant.
I was shocked to see that this morning. Vegas is only 3pts away from being division lead. I don't understand this, but I'm starting to think it may have been intentional. Only reason I say that is because DeBoer was hired immediately.
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7 hours ago, wisconsinwx said:
Any hope left with this one for Toronto/Ontario posters? In Wisconsin some places in the northern half of the state may see 1-2” and it looks like MKE should stay mostly frozen, but with low QPF probably a half inch of snow accumulation at most.
Yeah same. Not looking like much this way either. Heaviest snow falls well north of us. Maybe an inch if were lucky.
There wasn't much lift or room for the storm to grow. Jet stream is pretty progressive.
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1 minute ago, nwohweather said:
It isn't here yet? Honestly one of the more mild winters I've seen temperature wise. Would not be shocked at all to see this be a backloaded winter though, it has all the hallmarks of that happening
2011-12, 2012-13 and 2015-16 were worse up until now.
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9 minutes ago, Hoosier said:
Where'd this go?
Well right now it's somewhere in the Atlantic. Happened a few days ago.
75% of the sub-forum was a washout. Don't worry you didn't miss anything.
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It's -57F in Mayo, Yukon. If anyone misses the cold that is.
https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/yt-10_metric_e.html
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12z CMC much further south than the 12z GFS.
Primarily snow for Chicago crew.
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1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:
Our massive 1" snowpack took a hit overnight as temps ascended into the mid 30s. Now just some white patches scattered about the brown landscape.
It's crazy how were sad to see a 1" snowpack melt away. The story of this winter.
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12Z GFS is a bit too warm for my liking. We need the Low to cut south of Lake Michigan, otherwise there's to much WAA.
Just another storm where we're riding the thin line.
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Apparently the Euro weeklies look like Feb 2015. Feb 2015 was an incredibly boring month outside of the GHD storm. Just endless brutal cold.
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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:
Expected to wake up to freezing drizzle this morning, instead woke up to 0.3" of snow. Adding a few pennies to the pot.
If we got 0.5" every single day from Dec 1 to Feb 28, we'd hit avg.
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Just move to Quebec City. They avg. 120" a year of pure synoptic snow.
Just brush up on that French though lol.
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January 17-18 Winter Storm
in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Posted
RGEM and Euro remain bullish with 5-7" locally. Still not within HRRR range.