Snowstorms

I'll take the 00z Euro. But set-up seems unusual. 

1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said:

And that looks about what we got.

~2" at YYZ. Just like every other event this winter. 

Latest HRRR has backed off a bit on snowfall across the GTA.

2" still looks good. 

19 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

In terms of warmth, this winter for sure ranks up with 2001-02 and 2011-12. I don't consider this winter to be as much of a bust, though, because of the snow we've had. Also, November 2001 and 2011 were blowtorches ,which November 2019 most certainly was not.

Aside from Nov, this winter has been pretty warm. Only 13 days since Dec 1 with overnight lows below -10C. We avg ~39 days by the end of Feb. 

Maybe we'll get lucky now and see a nice warm summer like 2002 or 2012 haha. 

Rest of the week is zzzzz. 

6 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Looks better for a little front end snow than it did 24 hours ago.  I'd go with 2" as well before the changeover.

Such a warm winter but we're weaseling snowfall.

This winter is up there with 2011-12 and 2001-02 in terms of warmth. Well deserved after all the garbage winters we've been through in the last decade or two. 

Majority of the precip should fall tonight. Temps won't be an issue and any changeover will only be light drizzle tom morning. Wouldn't be surprised to see 3" across much of the area. 

HRRR and other models like RGEM are keeping sfc temps around the freezing mark and upper air temps below freezing across the GTA tom night into Tues morning. This would increase the chances of accumulating snowfall esp north of 401. Preliminary call 2". However, it all comes down to temps as we're riding the thin line here. 

HRRR has ~4" by Tues afternoon. 

12 hours ago, Baum said:

anybody going to start a thread for the  February 27-28 blockbuster?

@Chicago Storm 

Looking like a rainer

-5.1F this morning at YYZ. Coldest night of the season. 

Can't believe we actually made it lol. 

5 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Hoping for Mar 2010 or 2012.

Anything but that miserable Mar 2017. 

55 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

eyeballing, looks like less than 1".  I'm actually surprised we didn't get virga-stormed.

A whopping 1".

Now for some bone-chilling cold tonight before we're back up above freezing by Monday. 

00z GFS is a rainer. Jet stream is too progressive and thus the storm can't amplify. 

Looking good for 0.5" by tom. 

6z RDPS trended a bit more favourably for the GTA with 2-3" for Toronto and 4" for Hamilton. We'll see if that holds for 12z. 

3 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I mean how many storms looked at least decent in the day 2 to 4 range only to be crap when they hit. I can count 3 within the last week.

That mid-December storm was a let down. 

We haven't had legit blocking over the Arctic since 2010-11 in DJF. That probably plays a role as well. 

2 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

Living just south of Hamilton will allow me a greater chance to sneak in a slightly better snowfall. We still have snow on the 95% of the ground so even 5cm to refresh the snow pack before -20C temperatures comes helps. 

How much of the ground is covered in Toronto? 

~2" (5cm) give or take. 

Latest RDPS has ~3" for Hamilton. Wouldn't expect anything more given recent trends. Heaviest precip will be south of Hamilton and with some lingering dry air, I'd lean closer to 2" for now. 

12 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

I have to say, it doesn't really matter that much to me if a 1 foot+ storm comes from a moisture-laden gulf low or a clipper + enhancement.

Not that I don't appreciate bomb-like storms, but lack thereof wouldn't be too much of a source of complaints from moi.  But to each their own.

Fair point. Tbh, I appreciate any storm that helps us reach our seasonal average. 

2 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

January 2019, no?

Robust clipper with some lake enhancement. Was referring to non-clippers. 

1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Looks like a solid turd of a storm.  I'd suggest doing as I am and not wasting precious seconds of your life on it.

Joke of a storm. We'll be lucky to get an inch out of this now. 

Been a while since we've seen a nice storm (>8") that wasn't a clipper or had mixing issues. 

Preliminary call for Toronto 2". 

2 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Based upon trends with this one. I'd argue moving that north some.

Right over @michsnowfreak's backyard. 

Just now, Chicago Storm said:

0z NAM continuing the trend of a northern wave which dives in more.

Looks like the southern wave ejecting out a bit strung out keeps this run from having a big dog.


.

The primary low is a bit further SE.

1 hour ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

The snow caused absolute chaos at YYZ. My flight in from Quebec City was delayed by 4 hours. Quite ironic to be flying from YQB only to be delayed because of heavy snow at YYZ!

I saw the flight tracker map last night. Many planes were diverting or circling the area. Nice to have you back in the city. 

7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Go look at NE forum right now, some epic meltdowns because of their lack of snow. I think some of those guys would sacrifice their first born for a good snowstorm.  

Let's not forget their historic run since 2008 lol. Nearly every winter since 2008 was exceptionally snowy. We've all experienced shitty winters, now it's their turn.