Snowstorms

1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Well, if it does transpire, can't argue with back-to-back snowstorms on Saturdays.  At least no commuting problems for us working stiffs.

Euro ensembles looked pretty good for our area. A lot of members had >6" for us. Let's see tonight's runs. 

No expectations right now. This could go either way. 

5 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Well, best case scenario might be that December 1992 event, but it's tremendously unlikely.  2-4" of plaster more likely than that, but still improbable.  EURO is almost a whiff to the south even though it's an outlier.

Not happening. Many places across the GTA saw ~20" with that storm. The Dec 92 storm was a full blown Nor'easter and was much stronger.

As it stands right now, 2-4" seems reasonable. 

Euro has an 8" bullseye over Toronto. 

This is a complex storm with a lot of moving parts. Next few days will be interesting. 

20 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Comical...

I'd assume its correlated with the MJO moving through phases 4-5-6? We'll see if that changes come mid-Feb, but for now we won't be seeing cold outbreaks anytime soon. The AO/NAO are + too. 

12 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I agree 100%. Last winter was a rather lackluster one for total snowfall, but between the ice storms and the long lasting cold, some considered it a "long winter", whereas winters where we had 2 feet more snow but less cold weren't looked at as "long".

For us locally it was one of the best winters of the decade. Most parts of the GTA saw between 54-60" including a ~13" storm. 

Winters like 08-09, 10-11, 13-14 and 17-18 to some extent are what I consider real winters in our region. They all featured wall-to-wall cold and snowfall and funny enough they were all La Nina's expect 13-14. But I think many of us expect each winter to be like the 40's, 60's or 70's. We went on a crazy run those years with extreme cold and snowfall practically every winter. The global climate was much different back then than it is today and that certainly has an impact on us as well. 

9 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Up to almost 30" on the season.  Aside from November, not much of a winter for cold or snowcover, but you can't complain so far about total snowfall.

I got no complaints about snow. The lack of cold has been kind of disappointing though. It'd be nice if we can get above 100cm (~40") again. The last time we had three consecutive winters above 100cm at YYZ was back in 2005. We came really close in 2015. That speaks volumes about how shit winters have been lately. 

Onto the next storm now! 

Final total at YYZ was 6.8". Not a bad storm. 

26 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Total grossness out

What was the final snow/ice total in Chicago?

YYZ up to ~5.2" as of 4pm. 

Hearing reports of big flakes coming down near Kitchener as temps continue to rise. ~7" is not out of the question if the bands near Milton/Guelph hold up. 

Looks like the Premier of NL has requested assistance from the Canadian Armed Forces.  Stay safe! 

Just went to the store and shovelled rn. Measured 4.6" (11.7cm) as of 5 mins ago. Coming down nicely. Should hit 6". 

Edit: YYZ at 4" as of 3pm. 

10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, I need northerly flow or at least some minor variation of that to have a shot.  So not a common occurrence but not very rare either.  Just haven't had a setup where that wind direction and good parameters and long enough residence time have come together.  

Yeah, lake effect hasn't been great this year. Even places like Buffalo aren't doing too good in that department. 

The best bet for winds straight out of the North is after a storm cuts through the Upper Lakes and cold Arctic air flows in from the Upper Midwest and Hudson Bay. We'll see if that changes in February as the lakes are open for business. Hopefully you get lucky with a nice streamer. 

17 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

2.4" as of 1pm.

Yeah I just measured ~3.0". YYZ back to SN now. 

Some decent returns near Kitchener. We'll see if they hold up as they move further north.

12 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

About 2"

It is pretty incredible.  I mean, I'm near I-80 and close to Lake Michigan, not in the south.  Even if synoptic isn't going favorably, there is a backup option in the form of a decent lake effect band making it here, but nope.

Really? I'm assuming it must be related to wind direction. A W or WNW wind wouldn't really do you justice when it comes to lake effect. 

YYZ reported SN from 11 am to 1 pm. -SN now but I suspect we'll be back to SN soon. 

13 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

That looks a lot like it does here.  Well, I have a little more snow.

Still waiting on a 3" snowfall.  I don't really keep records and trying to remember your first 3" snowfall each winter is sort of an odd thing, but this has to be among the longest it has taken.  And there really isn't one in sight.  Some models are trying to tease the lake effect band this far west on Monday, but even if it does make it this far west, I'm not expecting much.  Yesterday's storm was made worse by the fact that a number of models (granted not unanimous) were suggesting 3-5" here, which of course didn't pan out.  

Geez, how much did you get?

Next week could bring something as a ridge develops over Hudson Bay and limits how far north the next storm gets. We'll see. 

2 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

Kinda surprised nldtw isn't anticipating calling in the feds for help. I hope it's not a matter of ego or provincial pride. 

Toronto called the army in "99 after ~120cm (47") fell in less than 2 weeks. Now that's a joke. 

2 hours ago, Hazey said:

That is the exact total of White Juan at CYAW. 95.5cms. Strange coincidence. You got bigger drifts but the pics of the streets with 24-30” level are very familiar.

You guys had it rough that year with Hurricane Juan and White Juan. Wonder what they will call this storm in NL. 

Total rippage near OttawaB. He must be frolicking. 

Latest HRRR has 6-8" for the GTA. 6" seems like a good bet. 

2 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

Yyt sets new calendar day record of 69 cm/27.2" passing april 4th 1999. 

Latest update is 74cm at YYT. Wow! 

Hope you doing good. Would be nice to experience a blizzard like that. 

^^Canuck is chilling in Aruba I believe. 

4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Have switched to freezing rain.  Based on models and adjusting for current obs, don't expect to go above freezing until around 10z at the earliest and could be lingering around 32-33 for a while.  

As per Wunderground radar it looks like the freezing rain line is still south of you in Central Illinois. Must be localized? 

OT but St. John's, Newfoundland has received ~30" at last obs. Crazy blizzard going on there rn. 

I can't imagine a storm like that in our region. It would be crazy!! 

Snowfall warning issued for all of Southern Ontario. Latest NAM and HRRR have 6-8" for the GTA.

Feeling more confident with ~6" for the GTA, ~7"  for Windsor and ~4-5" for Hamilton.