Snowstorms

13 minutes ago, Toronto4 said:

I’ll be interesting if there’ll be an extra nudge south with this as we get closer. Currently the GTA is on the southern edge of the steady snowfall.

Yeah I agree. Hoping it trends just a bit further south. Could be a decent 5-10cm if it does.

9 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

As I said earlier it is kind of weird to have such a strong high immediately to the Northeast instead of back to the west. What I do wonder with two of the three conveyor belts being drier air do you guys think it will lead to a colder and drier storm than is currently being modeled? My thoughts are that QPF is going to drop or be less than what is expected because of this

I mean qpf can always be over or under modeled. We won't know until within 24 hrs.

But if you look at the 250mb wind map you'd see some subtropical influence and the PWAT maps indicate a good amount of moisture. It's a decent Colorado Low. 

2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

To be fair the last month has averaged +10 departures around here in the "heart" of winter. That is almost as rare as Feb 2015. The positive departure anomalies have greatly increased in frequency. It's called global warming. It was 67 degrees the other day here with sunshine, once I get that first taste of spring it's tough to go back to the cold. 

Mar 2012 and Feb 2015 were both rare months. 

We've had warm winters in the past, especially the 1930s and some 1800s. However, as you mentioned, the warm-ups have become too frequent and long-lasting. If we break it down a bit, it becomes quite clear.

05-06: quite warm after Dec, 06-07: a no show until mid Jan, 07-08: overall was warm, 11-12: warm, 12-13: warm until late Jan, 15-16: warm, 16-17: warm after Dec, 18-19: warm until mid Jan, 19-20: warm since Dec..? 

Hard to say if it's related to CC, but the trend is undeniable. We've shattered snowfall and cold records in between, but warmth still prevails. 

9 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

To be fair though, we sad that about the last storm too until it dipped on us a run or two before onset

The HP placement is different than the last storm. We had to much WAA thanks to the strong SE ridge. It's a bit more suppressed with this event. 

On a positive note, the models have been trending colder since yesterday. A lot of that has to do with the strong HP in Quebec. 

This storm won't make it onshore until Thursday morning so I'd expect some fluctuations till then. 

Watching this storm pretty carefully for the GTA. Here's the latest model breakdown.

Euro: 3" 

GFS: 1-2"

NAM: <1"

CMC: 2-4" 

A majority of the snow falls Wed night so hopefully that can play a role in keeping the surface cold enough for frozen precip. If the low tracks just south of Lake Ontario, there is the possibility for some lake enhancement for Toronto proper. 

2 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

This is the one, not a lot science behind it but a pattern is a pattern.  I'd love to see that pattern get smashed with a strong February.  

 

Similar trend up this way in Toronto since 2000. Hoping we turn it around this decade. February has been our strongest month in recent times, hoping that trend continues atleast lol. 

The pattern following this storm is pretty mundane. Latest GFS has a split flow look. Not the most ideal pattern for any storm for our region other than perhaps weak clippers. 

Nearly 3" of rain at YYZ with this storm lol. 

16 hours ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Actually, this past decade wasn't too bad. In February 2013, we saw one of the biggest snowstorms on record for Toronto. Winter 2013-2014 was the coldest in 20 years. February 2015 was the coldest February since at least 1840 (when records began) in Toronto. 2017 saw the coldest New Years period since the late 60s. 2018 saw the coldest October-December period in Toronto since 1980. January and February 2019 saw decent amounts of snow.

I know we've all broken some nice cold and snowfall records in the last decade or two. But my post was referring to the prolonged and frequent warmups we've been seeing practically every winter. 7 out of the last 10 Decembers were warmer than normal. Both February 2017 and 2018 featured record breaking warmth. 2010-11 and 2013-14 were the only two winters in the last decade to feature consistent cold through DJF. Perhaps it could just be a temporary thing or is a result of CC. Either way its hard to deny the facts. The 90's were indifferent too. 

1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

Story of this non-winter

I feel like it's been a common theme since 2010, maybe even before that. We have prolonged mild spells through the heart of winter and only a few weeks of intense wintry weather.

Let's be honest, since 2010, we've only had 3 maybe 4 appreciable winters. And besides 2010-11 and 2013-14, the other 1-2 good winters featured a decent warm spell. Perhaps this is a result of climate change or maybe it's just a temporary blip. Regardless, we won't know until we see how the next couple of winters perform. 

2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Long range starting to look worse last few runs.

After today, I may be ready for spring soon.

Might be one of the worst winters for lake effect and synoptic snow. 

Temp has dropped 12F in the last 20 minutes at YYZ. 

17 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

With wave 2 going weak and east, it appears my snow total from this dud will be a measly 1".  

I know how you feel and it's the worst when just 2 days ago you were in the sweet spot. 

Onto the next.

Currently 52F and raining steadily. 

22 minutes ago, wisconsinwx said:

That was the one this thread was supposed to be for haha.

My apologies, I was unsure. 

But Hoosier has now fixed it for two separate events. 

First thread, I hope it's blessing. 

This thread is for a different storm than the 14th-15th event. Models show something for both timeframes.

Going to be miserable tomorrow with 2" of rain followed by some back-end freezing rain. 

There's another one on the GFS right on the heels of this one on the 15th-16th. 

24 minutes ago, mimillman said:

This was unsurprising from the start with the lack of a decent airmass and WAA on steroids 

Story of this winter. 

Euro with another rainer followed by a pattern change that favours the East Coast. Can't get much worse than that. 

Practically mid Jan now. March is less than 2 months away. 

The GFS is trying to build a split flow pattern ~Jan 20th. Terrible. 

This current pattern were in is probably the most ideal pattern for most of us to get snow, but due to a strong SE ridge, we keep getting rain. 

1 minute ago, Toronto4 said:

It looks like the High across northern Ontario is stronger and moves in at the right time to filter low level cold air across our area.

Yup. It would be disastrous if we saw a repeat of 2013. For now it more closely resembles the Apr. 2018 sleet storm. 

The 00z CMC is mostly rain in Chicago and Detroit. The ice line is bit further north than the GFS/NAM, but YYZ gets a significant ice storm. 

Eastern Iowa is the winner.

GFS with a crazy ice storm. It's too bad there isn't more cold air to work with. In a normal winter, this would've been a nice snowstorm.