Snowstorms

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

It looks to me like the southern stream closed low has slipped south of the border, but I largely agree... any bigger surprise would come from the handling of the northern stream.

Seeing that it comes straight out of the Yukon, I'd assume the CMC would have a better handling of the northern stream than other global models. 

7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

How ironic, all those great winters we were having in this sub forum Toronto was often sitting on the sidelines, now in a Winter when so many want to pull their hair out Toronto is well above average to date.

 

DTW is at 28.6", which is actually 1.6" above average to date (Flint is more above avg).  Still need about 14" to get to the season total average, but with as many things as I can complain about the way this winters gone, total snowfall is not one of them.  My backyard is almost a match at 28.5", although it's a product of a few tenths more or a few tenths less on many snow falls.

Being ahead of everyone for the first time in a while feels good. But seeing how DTW experienced an historic winter back in 2013-14, 14.8" snowier than YYZ's snowiest winter ever, while we got a measly 55" is nothing compared to this year lol. Most everyone has experienced record breaking winters in the last decade while we experienced historically snowless winters. Even Boston got ~100" back in 2014-15 lol.

11 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Starting to think you not being on board this one is good for the forum, given your recent track record :p

His posts and thoughts are very insightful. Don't shoot the messenger. 

4 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

3.3" at YYZ.  All the beautifully caked trees being washed with 33 degree drizzle now

HRRR nailed it. 

YYZ now up to 40.8". Less than 5" away from average. 

Toronto (YYZ) has had several winters since 2000 with temperatures failing to reach or get below 0F. Namely 01-02, 05-06, 11-12, 16-17 and now this winter. As Alek would say, "AGW". ORD ain't got shit on us. 

Closing in on 3" and still snowing. Widespread reports of 2-3" across the GTA. 

1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Nice frontogenesis band about to move in.  Maybe we can rip some 1-2"/hr rates for about an hour.

Yeah we just had some intense rates. I haven't measured yet but it's still falling pretty decently. 

HRRR, RGEM and NAM all have ~2-3" for the GTA. It'll likely be closer to 2" near the lake. 

It'll be a quick hitting clipper. Could see 0.5"-1"/hr rates across the GTA. 

1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

I was gonna start this tomorrow.

Threat is dead now.


.

We'll revisit this Feb 14 and consider the next steps. 

CMC is a decent hit for Indiana and parts of Ohio. 

Just now, Hoosier said:

That is like two thirds of a grade, unless you guys do things differently in Canada.

Nah it's the same as you guys. I just meant it as a lame sarcastic joke. 

Second thread blessing. 

Malacka redemption. 

27 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I might raise my winter grade by a whole letter if this happens

In other words, D- to D+. 

^^ Surprise LES events are always the best lol. 

4 hours ago, Cary67 said:

Good your making up for some lean years if I recall

Yeah we are. 4/5 least snowiest winters on record in Toronto have occurred in the last 15 years lol. 

HRRR has ~4" by 06z Monday in Toronto and still snowing. 

3 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

No, not this time I can feel it in my bones

2.0" call for tom looking $$. 

Might be some lake enhancement east of the city towards Oshawa. 

9 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Barring some horrible luck, looks like we'll have back-to-back-to-back 40"+ seasons for the first time since 2002-03/03-04/04-05.

Well-deserved. It's been almost 20 years now. We missed it by a fraction back in 2015. 

It really speaks volumes about how crap winters have been in our area compared to those around us. 

8 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Euro from 12z agreed. Waiting on 00z run. The GFS as usual is forecasting for another planet.

Both CMC and ICON had a partial phase. Nice pool of cold air near Hudson Bay with a weak SE ridge. Set-up is definitely there for something big but we need more consistency. 

YYZ recorded 4.2" with this event.

Brings seasonal total up to 37.5". Avg is 45". 

12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Definitely. Think we had like 40" total that year. 2011-12 was the worst winter in record keeping history in Western NY, going back a century.

https://www.weather.gov/buf/wintersummary1112

Yeah 2011-12 was bad all around. It was Toronto's least snowiest winter on record going back to 1840.

Hopefully we cash in on a classic App Runner. 

10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

If you combine round 1 and 2 it would be 9.5", my highest is 10.2" from November storm. At 62.1" on the season so far.

That's not bad. If we had more LES outbreaks, you'd be closer to 100". Better than 2011-12? 

5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Total for round 2 was 4.1".

Biggest storm of the season for you? 

2 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Think about 35”. Thing is ORD is not a good representation of where most live in the city because it’s basically in the suburbs. Downtown total has probably been closer to 12-15”.

Is that because of mixing issues near the Lake?