Snowstorms

Persistent cloud cover over the past few days have kept highs in the 60s and lows in the mid 50's. Forecast low for last night was 46F, but due to extensive cloud cover we only got down to ~53F. Some places just north of here in cottage country were also expected to get down into the mid 30's but widespread cloud cover prevented that.

We tried that last winter. Wasn't pretty.

Was a second year Nina though. I think 2007-08 seems like a better analog. It also came off a weak Nino and was the first -PDO/La Nina winter since 1999-2000. Current subsurface anomalies are quite similar to 2007 as well.

We're too far south of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay to get any lake effect snow other than occasional dustings to 2". And on-top of that, an E or SE wind off Lake Ontario is even rarer. When storms move up the Apps, unless they track just south of Lake Erie, we never cash in. These storms are usually golden for you guys in New England. Our geographic location sucks. Too far west of the Atlantic and too far north of the Gulf to get any real moisture laden storms. We were less than 100 miles away from some of those big March 2018 storms that slam dunked NNE. 95% of our snowfall every winter is synoptic.

The 1940s were kickass here in Toronto. We averaged ~55" that decade which is 10" above our seasonal average. A couple winters that really stand out; 1940-41: 64.3" 1942-43: 72.6" 1944-45: 97.6" << YYZ lowballed this winter lol 1946-47: 76.7" 1949-50: 77.3" That 1944-45 winter featured a 26" storm which is a top 5 storm. Just based on analytics, I wouldn't mind a repeat of the 1940s. Only two winters that entire decade were duds.

Latest MEI value is -1.0, which is the same as the previous bi-monthly value. Closest resemblance to this year based solely on the MEI value is 2007. The JA MEI value was already -2.4 back in 2010 as the Nina peaked in the Fall as I noted in my previous post. 1998-99 Nina isn't the greatest analog in my opinion as it came off the heels of a very strong El Nino and were much colder than 1995-96.

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After being spoiled by a string of above normal Septembers, it actually feels pretty good. Out of the last 30 years, I'd say September has warmed the most if not top 3 atleast. Only made it to 62F this afternoon.

Subsurface anomalies are still relatively cold across much of the ENSO regions with the exception of Nino 4 as you mentioned. However, one thing to keep in mind is that 2007 had similar subsurface anomalies across far western ENSO regions to date. We should see continued trade winds blowing over the ENSO regions with another strong easterly burst coming next week. We'll see what impact that has, but regardless the SOI is now in Nina territory. The MJO is expected to remain weak/inactive as per models so this La Nina will continue to strengthen over the next few weeks. As it stands right now, I suspect this Nina will peak in the winter as did 2007.

I agree. It was the same up here as well. Expect for Feb 08, we didn't really retain much snow-cover. But man did it ever snow. I'll never forget the Dec 07 and March 08 winter storms. Dec 07 dropped 12-14" across the area and the March 08 dropped 15-18" across the area. I think that's one storm the Ohio Valley will never forget. 08-09 was also another great winter. Two back to back awesome winters.

Looking at just the weekly ENSO values and subsurface anomalies, this years La Nina is on par with 2007. 2010 was already a moderate to strong La Nina by this time and it peaked early. Models seem to be peaking this years La Nina in the winter, similar to 2007. The PDO has gone negative again. A -PDO may help drive more ridging around the Aleutians, which is a bit to far west of the EPO domain, but if at times that ridge can push eastward we can get some nice decent cold shots our way. Otherwise, most of the real arctic air would be confined over the Plains/Prairies. As you said, I like the idea of our sub-forum being the battle ground between cold and warm. I'd expect an earlier start which is more typical with Nina's. I do think this winter will end up colder than 2007-08 though.

Although 44-45 and 45-46 had exceptionally warm Marches, DJF were cold. Jan 1945 in particular. As you can see, the 1900's, 1910's, 1920's and again the 1960's, 1970's and 1980's were exceptionally cooler than any of the last three decades in all three cities you provided. Some of the warm winters we saw in these last few decades weren't just "warm" but were exceptionally above normal. Winters like 1997-98, 1998-99, 2001-02 , 2011-12 and 2015-16 were extremely warm winters nationwide. So there's been a definite warming trend in the last 100+ years.

It got down to -16F at YYZ and nearly -20F in surrounding suburbs in Toronto for one night. Believe it or not, it was the coldest low temp in Toronto since Jan 94. On a side note, Jan 94 was just ridiculous. YYZ got down to -24F and surrounding suburbs got down to -30F. Feb 2015 came close but only got down to -14F. Dec 2017 and Jan 2018 were impressive as well. Not sure how cold Detroit got during that cold snap.

To add to what you said, a severe cold outbreak or heatwave that lasts about a week shouldn't be a measure of climate change. It's more about annual trends as per your graph. If you go back to the 40's, 50's, 60's, etc. you'd note some winter's didn't have any real impressive cold outbreaks, but they were consistently cold for DJFM. What I've noticed in recent years is that we get one impressively cold month while the others are near or above average. From a temperature vantage point Detroit, Toronto, Upstate NY and parts of NNE have a similar climatology. Winters like 1940-41, 1942-43, 1944-45, 1945-46 and 1947-48 all featured consistent cold in DJF and that's just one decade. Really can't say the same for the 2000s or 2010's. Like for example: 2001-02, 03-04 (aside from Jan), 2005-06, 2006-07 (aside from Feb), 2007-08, 2011-12, 2012-13, 2015-16, 2016-17 and 2019-20 were all incredibly warm winters. From a trend perspective they outweigh any warm winter in the past. So there's been a definite warming trend in winter. Snowfall is just a byproduct of temperatures in my opinion. Even if it's 33 or 34F it can still snow. Just because the snowfall trend has been going up, locally, it doesn't mean the overall trend is "good" or "cool".

Can't wait for Fall. Captured this shot last year. About 40 mins away from the city.

Although we haven't yet reached our minimum sea ice extent/area for the year, winter has started again in northern Canada. https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nu-27_metric_e.html Resolute, Nunavut is losing 15 minutes of sunlight per day.

We had over 100 days of snow-cover in 2013-14. That ice storm solidified the snow base and we just kept adding onto it. Despite that mid Jan thaw we had, our snowpack still survived. I won't forget watching the 2014 winter classic on TV, in Ann Arbour if I'm not mistaken, and seeing all that heavy snow coming down for hours. We missed out on that storm unfortunately. 2010-11 was another great La Niña winter. Highly unlikely this year's La Niña will peak anywhere near that year. Our area, specifically Detroit - Toronto, can do well regardless of ENSO state. 2008-09 was just great especially coming off the heels of 07-08. I got over 30" that December alone. I was in high school during that Dec 2008 storm and I remember getting a half day because of all the snow which kick started the winter holidays haha. Jan 2009 had some impressive cold across much of the east. One of the craziest December cold snaps in recent times was in Dec 2017 around Christmas time. Although we haven't seen a wall to wall cold winter since 2014-15, we have seen some impressive cold shots as ORH noted in his previous post, i.e. Jan 2019.

Experienced a once in a lifetime ice storm in Dec 2013. Was also the coldest winter on record in more than 25 years in my neck of the woods. Apparently parts of Manitoba were colder than the surface of Mars that winter. Feb 2015 however was the coldest month ever recorded in Toronto. I wouldn't mind a repeat of 2013-14 or 2008-09. https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/toronto-ice-storm-2013-photos-from-the-gtas-winter-nightmare

This will likely continue strengthening through next week. That warm pool has an eerie resemblance to 2013-14 but at the same time it also concedes with a strengthening -PDO. Early guess would be 2013-14/2008-09 and 2017-18 blend using the most recent Nina years. La Nina's can transition into winter pretty quickly. Just ask Denver next week.

Was a cool day today. Maxed out at 73F this aft. Down to 60F now with a forecast low of 50F. Dew point was 42F earlier. The warmest temp. for the next 7 days is tomorrow with a high ~75F. Welcome Fall.

Got another 0.4" with this. Nothing impressive lol. Models have a more typical late Fall type of system next week that could bring widespread rain if it comes to fruition. Will be monitoring.

That PNA ridge off the Pacific coast is a bit too far west hence the trough sets up towards the Prairies and Plains on the Euro. On the flip side, seems like the Bermuda high has strengthened over the last few runs and that ends up pushing more heat towards our region next week. That cut-off on the Euro throws a wrench in any long-lasting cold for our region. The Euro OP seems to have support from the EPS too. The GFS ensembles eventually break off the cross polar flow and shift the ridge towards Alaska around mid-month and the heat builds back up again lol. How long it lasts? Hard to say. Seems like September may end up warmer than normal again.

Rained pretty good last night. As per radar, Kitchener was in the heaviest bands as compared to surrounding areas. Unless your house has a dome and it completely missed your backyard. The thunderstorm ~2am last night woke me up. As of 2am, YYZ recorded 0.4" (10.4mm). Not sure if more fell afterwards but I wouldn't suspect anything more than 0.2" if it did. Still better than last weekend’s shitshow where it rained everywhere in the entire province expect Kitchener and Toronto.

He's a time traveler.

La Nina Septembers are hit-or-miss but they typically mean more ups and downs than consistent warmth or consistent cold through-out the month. So average sounds right.