Snowstorms

Sorry I had to.

Interesting, thanks. Seems like their both still relatively misunderstood and it would be great if there could be additional research allocated towards learning more about them. As SnowGoose alluded to, the AMO could be one of the players but I doubt the PDO would exert any direct influence. I presumed that the accelerated sea ice loss was atleast enhancing the NAO/AO especially in the winter as the ocean heat is released back into the troposphere.

I think it has to do with the Arctic Sea Ice losses that have accelerated considerably since 2007. All that ocean heat being released back into the atmosphere in the Fall could have an impact on the polar vortex. Not sure if there's any research papers on that.

00Z GGEM is a good hit for Indiana and Western Ohio.

Now we got the PNA ridge in 2020.

The leading ridge out ahead of the Low sort of becomes a temporary block (like a West Based -NAO) and the upper level ridge kind of becomes one with the massive PNA ridge out west. That's why it stalls out. Very unusual yeah.

I'll take the Euro about 100-150 miles further east.

Dec 95 wasn't as nearly as good as the other 3. Only got 13.3" locally which is only slightly above our monthly avg. Whereas we got >25" in Dec 1975, 2007 and 2008.

The entire thing looks like a mess on the GFS esp that vort map.

Jan 2009 redux? Albeit the AO was slightly positive that month.

Western Canada is torching, Ontario is torching, we're all torching. The entire "source region" is above freezing first week of Dec.

The Euro did a 500 mile shift in one run. And they say the GFS is bad.

28 day closure. Schools, daycare and liquor stores remain open too. But capacity in the stores open will be reduced to 50% at a time.

Toronto going into a lockdown Mon @12:00am. All gyms, fitness centers, restaurants, bars, hair salons, recreational centers, casinos, convention centers and I believe shopping malls are all closing. Only essential stores like grocery stores and department stores will remain open. All restaurants will be offering curb-side pick up or delivery only, no dine-in. We been averaging >1000 cases a day for a few weeks now. When compared to you guys its nothing obviously but 85% of these 1000+ are in the Toronto area. Hopefully other American cities follow through.

I like the ridge placement on the Euro out west, ideal for our region. Got a half ass block near Newfoundland too which could help funnel some cold air in. Interesting, nonetheless. When Alek is excited, you know it’s real.

The cold October we saw this year was unusual for a Nina. In fact, the upcoming pattern looks more like a Nino than a Nina. When you have such a strong PV parked over Alaska to start December, it usually sticks around for most of the month. Not throwing in the towel for December, I'm just saying the pattern doesn't look great. Yes, I agree we do see earlier snows, in some cases, during November but that means nothing if we go multiple weeks during the heart of winter without any sustained cold/snow. Last winter is a perfect example. I don't like considering snow as a statistic to derive if a winter is warm/cold. Snow is just a byproduct, for lack of a better word, and you just need to be around the freezing mark for it to snow. For some cities just because it’s around the freezing mark, it doesn’t mean it’s below normal. In the last 30 years, we've seen exceptionally warm winters as compared to the preceding 30 years. For example, 1997-2000, 2001-02, 2005-06, etc. 2008-09 finished below average in Toronto but thanks to December and January. Feb/Mar 2009 were not cold by any means even for Detroit. In that regard 2009-10 and 2017-18 both finished near average to slightly below but again thanks to a couple cold stretches. It wasn't sustained which is my point.

I agree since 2005-06 we've only had 3 actual cold winters, i.e. 2010-11, 2013-14 and 2014-15. 2006-07 had that 4-6 week stretch from mid-Jan to early Mar. 2008-09 was only cold from mid-Dec to early Feb. 2009-10 featured couple cold shots through DJF but nothing extraordinary. 2017-18 had that 4-6 week stretch from mid-Dec to early Feb. 2018-19 had that 4-6 week stretch from mid-Jan to early Mar. Cold winters are becoming increasingly rare it would seem.

I agree we managed to finish above average with ~18" in December 2016. Even last December as warm as it was, we managed to finish near average. Other warm Decembers like 2014 we were able to squeeze in a surprise 7" storm. I mean it's possible to get some snow in an overall warm month if the transient cold shots can be timed right with a developing storm like we saw in Dec 2007. 1988-89 was dry overall and a crappy Nina winter. You're right. Nov 1975/2008 both featured a warm-up. In fact, 1975-76 and 2008-09 were in many ways alike overall. But I don't think this December will be anything like Dec 75 or Dec 08. Not until we start seeing some ridging around Alaska to create a cross polar flow as most of Western Canada looks to be exceptionally warm to start December.

There's nothing I see that would suggest your average cold La Nina December this year. Both the GEFS/EPS are adamant on developing and maintaining the PV around Alaska to begin December. On top of that stratospheric temperatures are near record lows which is not good if you're hoping for a -AO/NAO. One thing that is perplexing is the El Nino flavor to the upcoming pattern. Models have a somewhat active STJ and if we can keep getting some transient cold shots, i.e. Dec 2007, we can cash in. I don't think December will be as warm as Dec 2011, but a blend of Dec 2016, 2007 and 1988 sounds more realistic. Overall, I’m not impressed with the upcoming pattern. The cold air is locked up in the Arctic and Alaska while most of Canada bathes in warmth. Over the last 10-15 years, our winter months have been shrinking. Most of our snow/cold has been occurring over a 3-6-week time frame. Last 4 winters are prime examples.

That's a terrible pattern. PV parked over Alaska with a flat ridge just west of Hawaii. On top of that we got a massive trough over Greenland which is indicative of +AO/NAO. The cold over our region is transient at best driven largely by the +PNA across the PNW. Give's me 2011-12 vibes.

Might be a glitch in the matrix.

Quite similar atmospheric and oceanic weather patterns between this year and 1988, also a Nina year. 1988-89 was one of the strongest La Nina's in modern times and also came after two Nino's like this year. However, I don't expect this years La Nina to be similar in magnitude. 1988-89 was a mediocre winter and was fairly dry, which is unusual for our region.

Pretty decent warm-up coming after Nov 3rd for most of the sub-forum which should last till mid-November. Impressive -PNA and +AO means much of the PNW will be below normal and the east above. EPS and GEFS both have a ridge just east of the Aleutians and it seems to stay put through mid-month. Looks like a typical Nina pattern. To put things into perspective, previous La Nina's like 2007, 2008 and 2010 all featured a warm-up in November.

If you live in the Great Lakes area, the Sun barely comes out in the Fall and Winter lol. Whole lotta vitamin D deficient people in this region.

07-08 is arguably one of the best winters in the last 30+ years. Apart from snow cover retention and lack of arctic air that 2013-14 featured, it was constantly stormy. I'd be shocked if you’re in the Great Lakes region and don't want a repeat of that winter unless you got rain with every storm. Even parts of the Ohio Valley did well that winter.