Solak

For our Northern Counties...

Brad Panovich Meteorologist · Please Stay weather Aware Thursday. This strong front & the ingredients are coming together for severe storms in the late evening hours #Halloween. The STP or significant tornado parameter is enhanced right around Charlotte as it appears a small meso low forms on the front. Timing is everything so stay up on the weather the next 48 hrs. #cltwx #ncwx #scwx 242242 100 Comments267 Shares

Further south, stronger heating is expected across southeast VA into eastern NC/SC. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible in warm advection ahead of the cold front but, dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s and pockets of heating should result in MLCAPE values as high as 1000-1500 J/kg by early afternoon. Strong to severe storms are expected to develop near the front and track east/northeast, moving offshore by 00z. Forecast soundings indicate steeper mid and low level lapse rates with shear profiles supportive of marginal supercells. Forcing will be weaker than further north, so anticipate mainly clusters and semi-discrete cells initially. Some upscale growth into bowing segments could occur through outflow interactions/storm mergers. Overall severe threat appears greater across this area as deeper, more discrete convection develops, posing a threat for locally damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal

Talk about a quick hit... .CONFIRMED TORNADO NEAR VANCEBORO IN CRAVEN COUNTY, NORTH CAROLINA... START LOCATION...3 MILES NORTHEAST OF VANCEBORO IN CRAVEN COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA END LOCATION...3 MILES NORTHEAST OF VANCEBORO IN CRAVEN COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA DATE...OCTOBER 22ND 2019 ESTIMATED TIME...743 PM EDT MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF0 ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...65 MPH MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...40 YARDS PATH LENGTH...0.05 MILES BEGINNING LAT/LON...35.350833/-77.125814 ENDING LAT/LON...35.350968/-77.125140 * FATALITIES...0 * INJURIES...0

* Tornado Warning for... Wayne County in central North Carolina... North central Sampson County in central North Carolina... Southeastern Johnston County in central North Carolina... * Until 645 PM EDT * At 540 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 12 miles southeast of Benson, or 13 miles south of Smithfield, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

...North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon/evening... The potential exists for a few thunderstorms capable of locally damaging winds, and possibly a tornado, across the region this afternoon into early evening, although the overall magnitude/extent of today's severe risk should remain limited. Associated with the base of a prominent east-central CONUS longwave trough, a vorticity maxima and the entrance region of a strong cyclonically curved polar jet will quickly transition east-northeastward from the Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley to the Appalachians by tonight. Modest cyclogenesis will occur in the lee of the southern/central Appalachians as a cold front continues to spread east of the mountains, and generally exits the coast by early/mid-evening. A warm/moist sector with 70F dew points will precede the cold front, with a north-northeastward expansion across coastal portions of South Carolina/North Carolina today. Even with this moist influx off the Atlantic, the relatively small-inland warm sector remains mired by broken multi-layer cloud cover at midday. Its potential persistence will temper lapse rates and limited upward parcel accelerations even with near 70F surface dewpoints, which casts uncertainty on how many mature/sustained surface-based storms will develop and intensify within the warm sector. That said, strengthening/gradually backing mid-level winds and resultant 45-55 kt effective shear will be conditionally supportive of fast-moving line segments capable of damaging winds, with some supercell/non-zero tornado potential particularly across eastern North Carolina in proximity to the warm front, should adequate destabilization and storm development/maturation occur.

Slight risk has been dropped.

Looking ahead to Tuesday... RAH QPF is anemic on the latest model runs and the trends have been going in that direction in the last several runs. We will carry a chance of showers, but QPF will be limited to most likely less than 0.10.

Forecast has changed a little for here. They took next week's chance of showers out. Another week of dryness looms.

Dust off the skivvies!!! RAH says: For those looking for cooler weather, next weekend could be a breath of fresh air as a legitimate cold front looks to push through the area and possibly bring temperatures to below normal values for early October.

We might "see" some precipitation Monday night/Tuesday morning!!! Latest run of the NAM is showing enough air mass moderation for some virga possible across the northern zones.

Rainfall doesn't look to improve anytime soon. From the afternoon AFD from Raleigh... Other than a stray shower pre-dawn Wednesday across the western zones, precipitation chances will remain near zero through the period with high pressure jockeying into place overhead. The next chance of appreciable rainfall holds off until early to middle of next week thanks to the approach of a cold front from the northwest.

Seeing lots of Tweets today similar to this one.

For the Raleigh area folks...

Have a great trip!

One more round of possible severe before the cooldown.

And the crazy 06zNAM 3.83" and afternoon highs in the 60's on Saturday with a dry Sunday. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=krdu&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&nws=on&rap=on&obs=on&nam4km=on&con=on&ratio=11&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on

For RAH... 00z GFS 0.76" --- dry Sunday 06z GFS 2.32" --- wet Sunday. 00z rebounds in to the low 80's on Sunday 06z keeps it in the low 70's.

Well, it's not the 70's, but it's also not the 90's. High temperatures should remain near normal on Friday before dropping considerably the remainder of the period thanks to a plethora of cloud cover and the presence of ongoing showers/storms. Expect afternoon temperatures to meander within the low to mid 80s, with lows dipping into the low to middle 60s during the overnight hours. Some hints at a temperature increase as the front attempts to return north early next week, plausibly allowing central NC to return back into the warm sector.

GFS (18z) is still holding strong on the weekend cooldown. Low to mid 70's at this location.