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SBUWX23

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Everything posted by SBUWX23

  1. SBUWX23
    Yep snow habit plays a key role in ratio. Cold is just one factor.
  2. SBUWX23
    What do you expect them to do when guidance is spread
  3. SBUWX23
    I'm seeing a lot of 30-32. I'd wanna see temps in the 20s for higher ratio.
  4. SBUWX23
    Be careful with just expecting high ratio snow. Yes it's colder aloft but surface temps are still not as cold as I feel needed for higher ratio. Id temper it a bit and say more 10-12:1
  5. SBUWX23
    This obviously includes snow from tomorrow night north of our area
  6. SBUWX23
    I know people around Islip. 4.3 seems right.
  7. SBUWX23
    Gefs probs are not too shabby for greater than an inch. Temper expectations.
  8. SBUWX23
    If we had been in the 20s that would not have happened. It's impressive enough that we had the cooling we did without the nice high to our north.
  9. SBUWX23
    The liquid equivalent out here was impressive in the 12-18z timeframe. Even here where it was 32-33, the temps and compaction were real. Probably would have had closer to 10 if not more but I'll settle with the half foot. Still a nice event.
  10. SBUWX23
    Good job sticking to your guns. The north idea was not a bad way to go given the overall crappy setup, but we were saved by several minor subtleties that played in our favor. Thankfully the upper low existed over southeast Canada. It helped keep things from cutting to our west and then obviously the positive tilt to the southern stream initially. The trialing system also help shunt it east. If things were timed 6 hours later I'd suspect amounts would have been lower because of the marginal temps and time of day.
  11. SBUWX23
    Live your lives and stop fretting over the snow at the park. It is consistent with LGA and not far off from other official measurements.
  12. SBUWX23
    there is deformation banding to the west of the city that has to pivot through. enjoy the snow and stop panicking over minor nuances. look what happened to our NW, obviously the deformation zone has good rates too.
  13. SBUWX23
    no this is not true. look at KDIX radar. there is a pivot south of the city. KOKX is missing some of the returns out that way.
  14. SBUWX23
    um returns are fine, look at KDIX
  15. SBUWX23
    If there posts how hrrr lowers rates soon, look at whats going on across the interior in Lohud and CT. Obs over model now.
  16. SBUWX23
    Some of that is bright banding where radar is seeing some mixed precip at beam height but yes good returns for the metro coming in
  17. SBUWX23
    Just needed heavier precip.
  18. SBUWX23
    Snow mixing in now with some sleet towards Yaphank area Suffolk county
  19. SBUWX23
  20. SBUWX23
    Make sure to check the event total graphics on NWS sites. Those include snow for the whole event the most likely starts at 12z so it's the remainder of event
  21. SBUWX23
    3km nam profile over nyc at 14z. I disagree there is a trend for weaker lift in NYC area
  22. SBUWX23
    Here is an example on latest hrrr at 14z
  23. SBUWX23
    Respect him but that's at 12z. Lift goes up after that over the city
  24. SBUWX23
    Sun gonna be shining there tomorrow?
  25. SBUWX23
    Recon is sampling along the east coast as we speak.
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