Hvward

3km NAM shows 10” at KAVL by midnight tomorrow.

Here’s my most recent forecast map.

There better be a hell of a lot of energy to melt at 700mb, if GSP is basing their forecast on the skew-t.

Put my initial map out this am.

Yep, but with a Euro ensemble avg of +16” 3 days out.. I feel pretty good about this one and Asheville seeing at least 8”. Warm nose is going to play a factor, but even some mix during peak sunshine hours won’t cut totals that much.

Love me a good HT write up! Thanks for all you do bud, looking forward to reeling this one in with you and everyone else here!

Euro doubling down again. Don’t think I’ve ever seen it spit out a widespread 2’ in the past for most all of WNC. This one looks historic to me.

Just eyeing it from the weatherbell model, the charts should be out around 4:30. Boone avg looks to be around 10” or so.

Mean up over 9” for KAVL on the 12z EPS.

Yep this one has my attention, both GFS & Euro showing 10”+.

The HRRR is pretty unreliable when it’s comes to forecasting NWFS imo.

Wow come on mountain peeps, we got a good NWF headed our way later today get excited! Even Asheville may see some flurries or a snow shower.

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3km NAM hammers the higher elevations again this run. Even shows 4” in Boone, but doubtful that will verify. I think a widespread 1”-3” is possible above 3500’ along the apps.

NAM showing a pretty decent NWF fetch for tomorrow evening. Should be fun for the higher elevations.. winds even suggest some flurries around Asheville.

Haha we could set that up. But it is facing WNW.

I am excited to share with everyone that after some hard work/learning, I have finally gotten a downtown Asheville webcam up and running on my site. Hope you guys check it out! http://www.ashevillewx.com/gtadowntownashevillecam

Backside snow flurries/showers look possible for most everyone in WNC tomorrow evening per 0z 3km NAM. 850mb temps drop below freezing around 5pm with moisture streaming in from the W, then NW. Highest elevations could see a couple of inches.

Starting to get worried about sleet around here in Asheville. 3km NAM is even colder a 850mb. Surface temps look to stay in the low 30’s per NAM, but RGEM is colder. Will all depend on how deep the frozen layer is above your house. If you are getting sleet, it’s cold enough and deep enough to re-freeze the precipitation. If you by chance have snow, then your 700mb temps are not warm enough to initially melt the precipitation. If your surface temps are below freezing but it’s raining, the frozen layer is not deep enough to re-freeze the precip. I am very interested to see how this unfolds.

Good stuff Don. Only 11 more inches and we would break our all time yearly record set back in 2013.

Yeah NAM has been very interesting, especially considering it gets the job done with a 1034mb hp and the Euro shows a 1037mb hp in position as precip begins. Will be interesting to see if the high strengthens on the NAM on future runs. These are decent high pressures and could push enough cold air into WNC to keep things wintry for a while Thursday morning.

Euro still advertising a wintery start with the second wave around some parts of WNC. Surface temps are below freezing as the precip begins. 850mb temps are warm but surface temps could support sleet for a couple of hours Thursday. .

Looks like a two wave ordeal per the Euro. First wave sets the stage with a 50/50 low and then the second wave moves in Thursday am from the Gulf. The two wave setup is the way Asheville will get anything more than a dusting from the pattern.

Looks like a few snow showers are possible late tonight into early tomorrow morning for the highest elevations along the NC/TN border. 3km NAM thinks so.

It feels good! On a side note. Notice Hurricane Willa has strengthened to a Catagory 4 storm and will hit Mexico.. then modify itself and reform as a subtropical low in the Gulf that affects us by the end of the week. That’s where we want our storms coming from this year to have a solid winter!