ErinInTheSky

GEFS looks really good. Big jump up in snow means.

Good run. Now if we can just nudge the snowfall max a little east

GEFS still looks great. Half the runs give us 8+", 10 or so give us 12+"

Rare events have weird distributions. That said, 6" of snow wasn't unusual 50+ years ago in Louisiana. The record snowfall there is 14" and every few years there would be a decent 6+" event in the middle and upper parts of the state where the 9" were recorded.

I should have gone to sleep lol.

This looks pretty different from the GFS, I'm switching between the two.

I just logged on to see the GFS and... I... Yall. I... I've never seen this haha, not since I've moved here. I'm giddy. Please work out this way.

Ah, I'm not super well versed on how freezing rain accumulates. I'm from Louisiana and have never experienced significant accums.

Nobody mentioned but that first round has .5" of freezing rain through MD. .5" and above is defined as "crippling".

This map sums up my winter experiences here since moving from Louisiana in 2016. Frame it and use it to teach future Mid-ATL climatology classes.

Euro comes in with the last minute save to keep some of us from the ledge.

Anyone talking about the zr threat from the GFS and somewhat from the Euro? It looks like 1/3" of freezing rain with that first thump.

3.5" - 12/16. Fun storm, although it didn't hit the early 12+" model runs. 3" of snow, then freezing rain turned to slop, then sleet bomb and snow-crete everywhere. 0.25" - 12/17. Overnight cartopper. 0.5" - 1/25. Just a normal snow, some crusty freezing rain on top. 7" - 1/31 to 2/2. Long duration event. Model runs showed 2'+, but on day of event, they showed 10". I got 2" the first day, and almost nothing the second day. I was feeling pretty despondent and forecasts looked like they would bust. Then on the third day when I wrote it all off, boom. Line set up right over me and dropped 5 more inches. I loved it. Went sledding, built snowmen. Still, I would like to get my thumps up front, it was way to stressful a storm. 1" - 2/7 Absolute slop. Forecast for 3-6" and got 1". It mostly rained but when it snowed, it came down in huge parachutes that instantly melted. Everything turned into a slurry outside. 2" - 2/11. Cute overnight show. Forecast was for 4-6, got 2". But it wasn't as stressful as the other times, as it was overnight, everything was white in the morning with a little snow still falling. 2.5" - 2/18. SLEET BOMB! My favorite kind of storm. Hugged the NAM this time and thank god I did. Models showed 8" for my back yard, NAM was consistently showing 2.5" of straight sleet and 2.5" is what I got. Insanely heavy stuff, doesn't compact easily, doesn't melt quickly. 0.5" - 2/22. Just a nice little refresher coat for the glaciated sleet bomb. Total: 16.25"