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forkyfork

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by forkyfork

  1. forkyfork
    this looks significant enough for its own thread By evening instances of 3-6" locally will become increasingly plausible with 00z HREF probability fields greater than 60% from DC to N VT (with spots near 90-100% for 3" and 30-60% of 5" across NE PA/N NJ to S VT. 00z Hi-Res CAMs have trended slightly eastward to align more favorably to the greatest 14-day precipitation over 300% of climatological normal axis extending from near Baltimore to Philly to N NJ and W MA, suggesting increased runoff potential for these. As the surface wave advances toward the New York Bight by early morning, increased low level flow, will advect unstable across across S NY/New England and with continued isentropic ascent through warm conveyor belt along/north of the surface low, additional efficient thunderstorms a likely to linger overnight, in proximity to SE NY/SW New England as well as into south facing terrain making a more likely scenario for flash flooding. As such, the Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall was shifted eastward slightly to account for the guidance trends.
  2. forkyfork
    hooray
  3. forkyfork
    whenever we get a ridge bridge it's going to be awful. i genuinely don't want it
  4. forkyfork
    not one below normal 850mb panel on the entire run of the eps
  5. forkyfork
    next week might be rushing it but i think we start breaking off some of the western heat within the next 10 days
  6. forkyfork
    first 100s of the summer next week?
  7. forkyfork
    three
  8. forkyfork
    our cold water nightmare is over
  9. forkyfork
    ewr is now two 90s ahead of july 2009
  10. forkyfork
    storms fired early enough to organize despite the worsening upper levels
  11. forkyfork
    we deserve this
  12. forkyfork
    this it the 4th time i've gotten hail this summer
  13. forkyfork
    we want this vort max around 21z not 15z
  14. forkyfork
    height rises and nva after 18z, i'm pessimistic about our storm chances
  15. forkyfork
    we have the most pedantic office in the country
  16. forkyfork
    i'm starting to think this won't be like 2009
  17. forkyfork
    ewr has tied july 2009's 90 degree day count
  18. forkyfork
    high dewpoint warm front today? yes please
  19. forkyfork
    i can't wait for our nino torch december. +20?
  20. forkyfork
    noticing a stronger WAR trend on the models these past few days. this pattern certainly doesn't look like what we had most of june to me
  21. forkyfork
    wow someone threw a ball 99 times
  22. forkyfork
    monday looks mildly interesting
  23. forkyfork
    enjoy the brief window tomorrow
  24. forkyfork
    the cams all show a similar mcs. it rides the old boundary left behind from yesterday
  25. forkyfork
    the crazy nam replacement run didn't nail the location but it's doing a good job with amounts
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