kayman

Heads up an incoming watch likely

SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Southeast to Ohio Valley and Tidewater region today. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes will be possible, with the primary threat expected between late morning and early evening. ...Synopsis... A strongly progressive upper-air pattern will continue through the period, over the CONUS, with the main feature pertinent to severe-thunderstorm potential being the cyclone now centered over the Ozarks. The associated 500-mb low is expected to move approximately east-northeastward up the lower Ohio Valley to the area between EVV-CVG by 00Z, with a trough southward over the FL Panhandle. Associated mid/upper-level cyclonic flow will cover most of the CONUS east of the southern Plains and south of the Great Lakes. By 12Z, the center of the cyclone will decelerate and reach WV, while overall troughing amplifies over the East, from the lower Great lakes to the northeast Gulf. Otherwise, height falls aloft are expected over parts of the interior Northwest and northern Rockies regions ahead of a strong shortwave trough moving inland from the Pacific. Associated shots of DCVA/destabilization aloft -- over weak but adequate low/middle-level moisture -- will support general thunderstorm potential. At 11Z, surface analysis showed the primary low over extreme southeastern MO with cold front southward across the Mid-South and central LA. A wavy warm front was drawn from the Atlantic, east of the Outer Banks, across extreme southern NC near ILM, central SC, northeastern GA, eastern portions of TN/KY, to the lower Ohio Valley and the low. The low should migrate eastward to near HTS by 00Z, with cold front across western parts of VA and the Carolinas, western GA, southern AL, and southern LA. The warm front should reach the southern Delmarva Peninsula and southern/central VA by 00Z then decelerate, with a low developing thereon over the southern Chesapeake Bay region by 12Z. By then, the cold front should extend from that low over the Outer Banks to northern FL. The specific cold-frontal position through this afternoon and overnight -- especially over the Gulf Coast States -- may be rendered marginally to not relevant because of prefrontal convective stabilization that has made southwestern parts of the forecast more complex and conditional with time (see below). However, colder air aloft farther north across northern parts of the outlook areas may compensate for weaker boundary-layer theta-e enough to maintain at least a marginal severe threat. ...Southeastern CONUS and Ohio Valley to Tidewater... Scattered to locally numerous thunderstorms are expected through this evening, shifting eastward to northeastward across the region in the form of mixed modes (quasi-linear, clustered/multicellular, and probably a few discrete supercells). Damaging gusts, at least a few tornadoes, and sporadic large hail are all still possible -- with damaging to severe gusts being the most common type of storm report expected. A large area of severe-thunderstorm potential exists, though more uncertain now on the southwest side. That part of the outlook is complicated by a long-lived, quasi-linear convective system now weakening across portions of southwestern GA and the FL Panhandle, leaving behind a substantial theta-e deficit over parts of AL and most of MS. Though now weakening, this activity has progressed across the region faster and/or much better-organized than almost all synoptic and convection-allowing guidance has suggested, from 00Z initializations right to the past few hours. For example, the HRRR overnight consistently has been unable to keep up with reality, in terms of being too slow with convective speed and too fast to dissipate the complex. The few progs that have maintained a better-organized squall line (e.g., the 00Z high-res FV3 CAM) still were a few hours too slow with convective translation -- but in planar thermal/buoyancy guidance, more-reasonably indicate the stabilizing effects of the wake cold pool, when spatially adjusted eastward. Favorable destabilization between the outflow boundary (which arcs well southwestward offshore from AL/MS/LA) and the cold front now appears more uncertain, though some potential still exists for either: 1. Strong-severe convection to form along/ahead of the cold front at some ill-defined southern rim of the favorable large-scale lift/cooling aloft related to the cyclone, but in a moist layer that is weaker and shallower than earlier expected, and 2. The outflow boundary to weaken enough for prefrontal/low-level return flow (especially above the surface) to result in favorable theta-e advection, especially into the near-coastal southeastern LA to western Panhandle corridor closest to the remnant boundary. Given the uncertainties, and the reasonable lack of substantial/ organized activity over the coastal plain behind the MCS in progs that show it better, unconditional severe probabilities accordingly have been reduced (but not eliminated) in much of the post- convective area. Further refinements are likely in this region as mesoscale trends and later, more-reliable guidance warrant. Otherwise, the forecast remains largely the same farther north into 1. The Tennessee/Ohio Valley regions, where the influence of stronger cooling/instability aloft will be more important to convective potential, and 2. Over the eastern lobe of the outlook encompassing portions of eastern AL and GA to the Tidewater area, where a weakened MCS will be less to negligibly influential on destabilization from both diurnal/diabatic and advective processes. The CAPE/shear parameter space, especially near the warm front where enlarged hodographs are probable, still is expected to favor supercells with a relative maxima of tornado potential both away from the most strongly stabilized areas of the morning cold pool, and over parts of the VA/NC Piedmont eastward. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 05/06/2022 The official thread on the Enhanced severe threat for May 6th 2022 across the core of this regional subforum coverage area.

There are multiple tornado warnings in the foothills and Unifour area

There's 3 rotating super cells in Greater NOLA right now

There is a solid cold column of air associated with the shortwave disturbance tied to the upper-level low (ULL). It will be very unstable so any precipitation will be mostly snow if it develops around the ULL. It is difficult to forecast for shortwaves as they are situational based

The dry air is causing evaporation pockets in precip at CLT and west Charlotte right now until 2. I'm seeing flurries with sleet again at my place. Another wintry mix band is going to slide in again soon.

I think a deformation band of heavy snow will swing through CLT around 4-6PM as the back end with the ULL.

Most of the CLT lucked up big time with this system with mostly snow and sleet. It's seems to be aside from Ballantyne, Mint Hill, extreme South Mecklenburg County gotten snow & sleet in the city. Those areas are covered in sleet. Whereas, Union County, Anson County, Chester County, and Lancaster County seems to have seen the majority of the freezing rain accumulations in Metro Charlotte.

It's been light snow and sleeting around 26 degrees since 3AM here in SW CLT near the Airport. I have about 2-3 inches on the ground with the roads covered in snow and it's still falling. The dry air as shown in the water vapor imagery will likely dry things out before the freezing rain can for in the west side of Metro Charlotte. I'm sure it's going to wrap up soon across the region as it's starting to evaporate from the radar returns near Spartanburg. Dry air punching in

There's a thread within the SE forum for yesterday and the upcoming threat on 01/01/2022: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/56481-severe-weather-12-29-21-and-1-1-21/

A tornado watch will be needed soon for Southeast Louisiana

It's a VDOT traffic cam so you cannot blame it on NBC4 DC

I'm reading several EMT reports of damage in Arlington and DC on Twitter.

Tornado Warning for Mecklenburg and Cabarrus counties was canceled @ 1:41PM

New Tornado Watch for Metro Charlotte, Sandhills North Carolina, Midlands South Carolina, and East Georgia until 7PM SEL9 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 129 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 125 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far eastern Georgia Southern North Carolina Western and central South Carolina * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 125 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Multiple clusters will evolve east-northeast with embedded supercells capable of producing a couple tornadoes through this afternoon. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles southeast of Augusta GA to 45 miles west northwest of Southern Pines NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 127...WW 128... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Grams

New Tornado Warning for Mecklenburg and Cabarrus counties until 1:45PM. The southernmost cell just passed over my place and it had a rain-free base with a lowering and wind gust of 50 mph suddenly

For once in my lifetime, the Atlanta TV news operations are covering their 2 eastern Alabama counties within their TV market area for severe weather. All of the Atlanta TV stations are covering this major supercell with a TDS on NWS radar

I fear this might be a widespread severe weather event across the Southeast region tonight. Storms are forming ahead of the core severe forecasted area tonight into overnight hours

Also a Tornado warned storm along I-85 in the northern Cherokee County, South Carolina and Southern Cleveland County, North Carolina into the Greater Charlotte area. There are kinks that are S-shaped in the line that might cause a QLCS-spin up tornado as it heads towards Charlotte.

The tornado was caught by WVTM 13 and ABC 33/40 by both of their respective tower cameras on live TV. It's climbing along the Double Oak Mountain area of the Northern Shelby County

It's is but there's been more urbanized area growth south AL 119 since 2010. There's a large commercial retail area, multifamily residential developments, and office parks south of 119 in Inverness and Brook Highland.

I'm from Birmingham. That's a highly populated area that is being hit right now. Northern Shelby County has nearly 200,000 people. It's following the Cahaba Valley Road corridor (AL 119) headed towards to Inverness part of Hoover and Brook Highland neighborhood of the City of Birmingham.

There's a tornado on the ground in Helena and it's going to be head towards the Riverchase part of Hoover and Pelham.

Blame that on Congress... Charlotte has been lobbying for a closer NWS radar station for nearly 2 decades now... It's the largest urbanized region (3M+ residents) in the nation without a NWS radar site within 70 miles of its location.

Tornado Warning Tornado Warning SCC021-083-181915- /O.NEW.KGSP.TO.W.0002.210318T1837Z-210318T1915Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 237 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021 The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Spartanburg County in Upstate South Carolina... Northwestern Cherokee County in Upstate South Carolina... * Until 315 PM EDT. * At 236 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Spartanburg, or over USC Upstate, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Cowpens, Mayo and Chesnee around 250 PM EDT. Cowpens National Battlefield around 300 PM EDT. Gaffney around 310 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this dangerous thunderstorm include Thicketty. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800, 2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the specific location where it occurred. && LAT...LON 3502 8210 3518 8180 3517 8155 3499 8172 3489 8208 TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 239DEG 32KT 3499 8197 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...<.75IN $$ LANE