BullCityWx

I’m a big believer in those 925 temps in an ice storm and if you believe the 3K NAM, many of us are in for a world of hurt. The 12K NAM is a blast furnace at that level.

I can’t remember seeing CAA come in through the midlands and upstate in a long time.

Looks like ICON is as bad or worse as the last run.

21 minutes ago, acc fan said:

Yeah, we’re about 10 miles S of Hurdle Mills and we just barely missed the worst of it. Still got a good quarter inch here though. 

 

you live in bahama?

No, we live just south of St Marys and Bivins.

2 hours ago, FLweather said:

According to an old neighbor. Via txt messages.

They just had the worse ice storm she can reminder. From some of the pics on FB. Looked pretty bad.

Trees snapped like toothpicks.  No power. 

 

Near Roxboro

Yeah, we’re about 10 miles S of Hurdle Mills and we just barely missed the worst of it. Still got a good quarter inch here though. 

Looks like there could be a bit of a round two tonight with up to a tenth of an inch in Northern Durham/Orange/Caswell/Person counties.

1 hour ago, King of Surl said:

Heavy Ice here in Surl.  SE person county. 

That’s what it looked like here this morning before we got over 33. Never did get above 33 as well.

the trees here are already making that covered in ice with the wind blowing sound.

30.7/30. Dewpoint is 28 in Bahama so I’m expect to bottom out around 29 tonight.

Just now, tarheelwx said:

Totally agree.  On most all of our winter storms, there is a noticeable difference of some sort from NW to SE.  I think it is even more in Wake due to the size of the county.  Guilford isn't nearly as big.

TW

The topography changes as well. That bottom fourth might as well be coastal plain.  

26 minutes ago, btownheel said:

Betcha a nickel we both make it to 29 in darkness.

I think I’ve got a shot. The HRRR a few runs ago dropped me to 29 on extracted data.

31.4/30

31.8. It’s just gonna be a matter of QPF tonight, I’m afraid.

Just now, rowjimmy73 said:

hrrr loves southside 

 

Yeah, this is setting up sub obtimal in a circle from about MTV to South Boston down to the triad and NW triangle.

8 minutes ago, btownheel said:

Think that's where it pulls from, yes, and agreed.  Been a full 2 degrees off the car thermometer on the high side for several weeks across town.  

Doesnt much add up when you look at PWS stations and other obs like TDF and GSO. 

Just now, btownheel said:

Weather app shows us at 34 but I swear it runs a degree or so warm, or always seems to here.  

is it pulling off BUY? One thing I've noticed is that sensor has been running very warm. I think they might have moved it in the last few weeks. 

We briefly made it to 33.1 and now are back down to 32.7. Just for reference, most of the modelling has us getting to 34-35 today. HRRR has me dropping to 30 tonight. 

56 minutes ago, rowjimmy73 said:

if thats correct, lights out here in danville. 

 

Yeah, probably for the triad counties and the northwestern triangle as well. 12z NAM drops TDF down to 29 degrees tonight.

Good bit of sleet showing up on the 3k NAM.

HRRR doesn’t have as much freezing rain tonight because of...sleet?

45 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

18z gfs is, uh, just a little south 

“Juuuuust a little outside”

Roxboro is four degrees colder than the NAM at 21z.

Watch that pink line sink south over the last three runs: