BullCityWx

I mean if the RGEM or ICON is right, this is a generational ice event. 

Just now, hickory said:

If we were to compare this to past events what are we looking at? I know each event is different, but I’m curious. For example if you live in the Piedmont Triad could this be as bad as 2002? I consider 2002 to be the benchmark for ice storms. 

This has every bit the potential of being as bad as 2002, maybe worse because you won’t lose QPF to snow and sleet.

Just now, WSNC said:

That said, way outside of HRRR range.

You’re right, the equivalent of a 384 hour GFS map.

1 minute ago, CaryWx said:

How does it look for Wake?

.17 at the airport, probably warning criteria for 540N. Nothing more than a trace south and east of 40. 

Euro drops the least amount of ice here and it's still basically double warning criteria. 

This run of the euro pushes the ice down into the western suburbs of charlotte. 

From the Canadian and my back yard

26 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Outside the 1st hour, I hate to say it, but you , alot of us can forget sleet. Unless the warm nose shrinks. right now on soundings its slam dunk frzng rn.

This is as close as I can find, off anadian close to your area:

 

Totally agree. Unless we correct by 7-8 degrees most places, any sleet at all is totally off the table.

5 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

I live near the RDU airport, so I'm on the edge. I'm planning on relocating North towards creedmoor or NW of wake forest sometime this summer. If the plague leaves.

You should look into North Durham County. 

The RDPS(think RGEM HRRR) is super cold at the surface. As cold or colder than the RGEM.

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I don’t want to get too IMBY specific, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Wake got a warning just due to northern part of the county. Obviously most of the county would not verify, but based on what I’m seeing this event definitely looks to be more impactful further south and east than the last one. Raleigh proper I wouldn’t expect much in besides a light glaze, however. Could change but I had written the last one off already at this time. This one still piques my interest for mby 

and conversely, I assume our watch currently is for N of 40 in Durham maybe even N of 85. 

"Well, maybe the para wont be as bad"

NCZ008>010-023>025-170400-
/O.EXA.KRAH.WS.A.0002.210218T0500Z-210219T0500Z/
Granville-Vance-Warren-Alamance-Orange-Durham-
Including the cities of Oxford, Creedmoor, Henderson, Kittrell,
Warrenton, Norlina, Burlington, Graham, Mebane, Hillsborough,
Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Durham, and Rougemont
1046 AM EST Tue Feb 16 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Significant icing possible. Total ice accumulations of
  one tenth to two tenths of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central North Carolina.

* WHEN...From late Wednesday night through Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

Winter Storm watch expanded to now include everybody N&W of 40/85 and then after the split, N of 85. Nothing for Wake or Chatham or east. 

ouch.

24 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

It's a subtle trend, but the polar lobe over SE Canada continues to trends south/stronger. This will continue to strengthen the pinch of the confluent flow aloft over the northeast and induce higher pressure/HP at the surface. This produces a more transient pattern for our STJ s/w coming eastward.

The weird thing is we are absolutely on fire at 850MB, despite the trends. We're talking about +11C at 850 on the NAM. The other models are much colder but it does give me pause to think about maintaining a freezing rain event with such a warm nose. 2002 never got warmer than +4C over the Charlotte area. 

NBM has .3 totals for Caswell/Northern Orange/Far N Durham/Person counties.

NBM has me at .22 which is just short of a warning at 6z. At 12z, we're up to .27 which is warning criteria. 

6z 12k NAM went up to .55 ice. 

There’s no wonder why IP shows up for places like Reidsville and Yanceyville.

3K and 12K for comparisons sake.