cyclone77

2 minutes ago, Chambana said:

 

Shes a beaut Clark. Looks like you will have plenty of room for us to come crash your house when we are itching for snow, and your buried in 3’ of the white goodness. 

That attic vent looks pretty similar to the one from that movie lol  

I'll take this storm in about 6 weeks please.  

45 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

You can absolutely have a good Winter with a bad December, just like you can have a bad Winter with a good December. What I have noticed is that if it is one or the other, whatever happens the 2nd half of Winter is what people remember. You can have be buried in snow in December, but then have a mild rest of Winter, and when that Winter is referenced shortly thereafter, people remember how mild it was. On the other hand, you can have a mild December with little snow then get slammed after New Years, and people reference it is a harsh Winter. All that said, I feel we are due for a less snowy December than the ones we've had recently here, but I certainly hope it is not that bad. Naturally once we get to December, even in warm december's we can get good snow storms and good Lake effect snow. I'm sure cosgroves comment is very East Coast biased.  He references a cooler November in the center of the country with warm on the East and West coasts. Also says it will be stormy. Also hints at a potent Winter for the East shaping up after Christmas, so hopefully it hits our area before then lol

Yeah that's probably the case for many of us outside of the snow belts.  Last season was off to a pretty slow start here, going into Feb with <10" for the season.  Ended up with over 40", and had that awesome 11" event in late March.  Definitely made the misery of the first few months fade away.  On the flip side we got missed by pretty much everything the rest of the season following GHDI back in early 2011.  Left a little bitter taste in the mouth despite the epic-ness that was GHDI.  

30 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The western edge of the clouds is from Waterloo to the Quad Cities, and that's where the highest gusts have been so far.

Waterloo: 52 mph

Cedar Rapids: 49 mph

Iowa City: 53 mph

Davenport: 49 mph

A little further southwest than what the HRRR was showing last night.  Cutting down on mixing a bit over the western edge of the cloud shield.  Moline is gusting to 51mph now.  Overall not as impressive of an event as I was thinking yesterday, but after last Saturday's winds anything less than that will seem pretty meh lol.  I'm guessing the mixing was a bit overdone on the guidance, or winds aren't quite as strong as modeled in the 900-850mb layer.

Not much else to talk about, so might as well keep talking about the wind potential lol.  Latest HRRR continues to look impressive, and actually has things a bit further east than various guidance had been showing the past few days.  Western edge of the cloud shield is about 50-100 miles further east than some earlier runs, and hence the higher wind potential has moved a bit east with it.  Latest HRRR soundings are showing better mixing as well, up to near 850mb in some cases.  Winds of 50kts are showing up as low as 900mb, so with 50-55kts at the upper mixing range it certainly looks like 50-60mph winds are going to happen.  It now looks like this setup is nearly identical to the placement of last Saturday's event.

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Pretty much concur with your thoughts, cyclone.  Should not be a problem realizing gusts near/into warning criteria in the corridor you mentioned.  Looks like the GFS gets stronger winds farther north but we'll have to see.  Like you, I will be curious to see the HRRR.  

Yeah interestingly the GFS shows the punch at 850mb quite a bit further northeast than the NAM/HRRR.  Also keeps the edge of the cloud shield further northeast as well.  GFS soundings show mixing all the way to 800mb in the sunshine, and taps into 50-55kt flow.  

The MSP discussion mentions a max of 45mph gusts in the favored corridor in their cwa, but they will likely see 55-60+ in a portion of their western and southern CWA.

Looking at this morning's latest guidance, it's looking like a period of high wind warning level winds will occur about 50 miles either side of a line from Mankato MN to Springfield IL.  50-60kts at the top of the mixing layer showing up on various soundings along that corridor as the speed max at 850mb races southeastward.  Looks like a good chance at 55-60mph gusts for a few hours along that line, which will be just to the west of the thicker clouds.  

Looks like another round of very strong winds on Sunday for eastern Iowa and western IL.  Somewhat similar setup to last Saturday's setup with the wind profiles.  The difference this time will be more cloudiness, so mixing may not be quite as efficient.  Also won't have the intense precip squalls to mix down even higher momentum air like what happened over northeast IL and IN.  Forecast soundings out this way show mixing to between 900 and 850mb.  Some soundings off the latest 3km NAM show over 50kts at the top of the mixing layer just west of the main cloud shield over eastern IA around 18z.  Last Sat the 3km underplayed winds in the 850mb layer while the HRRR forecast winds 5-10kts higher in that layer.  The HRRR ended up being correct, so I'll be curious to see what the forecast sounding look like from the HRRR as we get closer.  At this point it looks like 40-45mph gusts are a lock for the DVN area (especially on Iowa side), but 50mph+ gust potential is there just to the west of where the western edge of the cloud shield sets up.

Great pics guys.

Took these earlier today out by Muscatine.

1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

They sure were checking each other out. I just noticed that the deer had its tongue sticking out.

What we don't see here is the cat has it's tongue out too.  In fact, the cat probably did it first.

23 here this morning, but have recovered back to 50 with full sun.  Lots of peeps around the neighborhood out doing yard work this afternoon.

1 hour ago, Malacka11 said:

Here in Aurora, just got caught in an insane downburst of snow out of nowhere. It's in the 40s, but snowing...

Nice!  I miss your old avatar lol

Had a period of 50-55mph gusts around midday.  The sky has gotten a bit hazy from all the dust being lofted through the mixing layer.  Dews have plummeted to below 20 degrees for the first time this season.

That main squall that tracked from southern WI into northern IN reminds me of the Feb 2003 event out this way.  Basically a severe thunderstorm with snow.  

21 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Looks like 45-50mph gust potential over parts of Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana on Saturday.  Low heights with the vort max, unidirectional wind profiles, very strong winds high in the atmosphere, and mixing up to about 850mb for most of the areas.  If some of that really high momentum air from aloft was just a little lower down towards the top of the mixed layer we'd be looking at a potential high wind warning event.  Looks like 40-50kts at 850mb for the most part though.  Something to keep an eye on.

Latest DVN forecast downplayed the winds a bit compared to the morning crew.  They bumped wind gusts from 45mph down to 40mph.  Always interesting to see the battle between the different shifts as everyone has different opinions.  I feel the previous forecast was more on target, and in fact I think there's 50+mph gust potential, and a wind advisory should likely be needed.  Latest HRRR has over 50kts now down below 850mb, which is significant as mixing should reach to near 800mb if the forecast soundings are correct.  That would imply warning criteria is a possibility for a short time.  

EDIT:  Just saw a wind advisory was posted for the northwestern DVN area.  That will need to be expanded for the rest of the cwa eventually.

Looks like 45-50mph gust potential over parts of Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana on Saturday.  Low heights with the vort max, unidirectional wind profiles, very strong winds high in the atmosphere, and mixing up to about 850mb for most of the areas.  If some of that really high momentum air from aloft was just a little lower down towards the top of the mixed layer we'd be looking at a potential high wind warning event.  Looks like 40-50kts at 850mb for the most part though.  Something to keep an eye on.

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Released today

Having trouble finding last months maps in the archives but I think it had EC for precip everywhere in our region, so this would represent a hedge toward drier if that's the case

Below avg snowfall in southeast MI?  Toss

First hard freeze of the season this morning as we dipped to 28.  See ya later skeeterz

MLI officially on the board for the season with 0.2" of snow early this morning.  DVN just missed out with only a T.  Good chance our next flakes could be a month away.  I tried to enjoy every last second of it as I was aware of that possibility lol.  

33 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Did you get anything on 10/12/2006? 

Not that I remember lol.  I didn't start keeping records until 08/09.  Other than the snow we had accumulate around Oct 26 1997, and Oct 22 2013 I can't remember getting snow accum in Oct.  

Ended up with 0.3" of snow early this morning, which is the earliest measurable snow that I can recall.  It actually melted overnight, as the ground is still pretty toasty.  

Huge snowflakes falling now mixed in with the rain.  Temp has dropped to 35.  Nice bright banding overhead on the radar.  2nd snow of the season and it's only October 15.  Not too shabby!

EDIT:  Snow is actually sticking on grassy and elevated surfaces with the temp now down to 33.  This will be the first accumulating snow of the season.

EDIT2:  Looks like about 1/3" so far.  Now all snow, but flakes much smaller but pouring down.

Picked up 0.06" of rain this evening.  Some light rain falling at the moment with a temp of 38.  Should get a brief period of wet snow at the tail-end of the departing precip shield in the next few hours.  We warmed to 50 earlier, and held in the mid to upper 40s until a few hours ago when CAA began to knock us back.  Forecast soundings showed above freezing temps up to around 850mb earlier, so the process of cooling the column is taking longer this far east compared to areas further west.  Looks like it will cool enough just in time before the precip departs.

11 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Pattern looks pretty uneventful for the next 1 to 2 weeks after tomorrow's system.  Forget severe or snow, there's not even much precip on the models. Lake belts could be an exception with some activity from time to time.   

We had a nice run the past month or so with the severe weather, excessive rains, early snows, and tropic tracking.  Definitely due for a down period.  Hopefully it won't last more than a few weeks.

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'll be going out west to the mountains this winter to ski and board. Should be fun. Also went to Iceland this summer. Got to hike up Europes largest glacier and drink fresh water from it melting away before our eyes. By far the coolest place I've ever traveled. Here are a few of my favorite pictures. 

 

Awesome pics!  

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Moline is reporting -SN

Had about an hour and a half of light snow at work.  Some pretty decent size flakes as well.  This is the first time I can remember us getting the first frost, first freeze, and first snow on the same date lol.

Crazy to think just three days ago it was 84 with dews near 70, and 89 last week.