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cyclone77

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Posts posted by cyclone77

  1. I suspected it was the interaction with the northern cells, perhaps they produced an OFB that the southern cell merged and traveled on that boundary. That would be why the HRRR was picking up insane somewhat localized helicity of 500+ coupled with the rapid updraft due to 5000 CAPE.

    And...

    Was just informed that they found a car with 5 people in it, in a pond not far from me. They are going to drain the pond and look for more bodies. Was informed earlier they found a body on someones pasture near here :-\

    Horrible news there.

    I'm sure there will be many case studies done on this tornado. This has been an especially active year for violent tornadoes, but this tornado is the most unusual in how quickly it evolved, and how violent it was.

  2. Just watched the radar loop of the Joplin storm and noticed something kind of interesting. As the parent supercell was moving through Joplin another supercell had quickly developed just to the south. This supercell quickly moved northeast and seemed to interact with the Joplin sup. The FFD on the northern edge of the southern sup may have helped to tighten up the RFD on the Joplin sup, and may have also helped tighten/funnel the inflow on the east/southeast side of the meso. That could explain why the thing exploded in intensity so quickly, and also why it only lasted 6-7 miles.

    http://www.rap.ucar....e=23&duration=2

    NOTE: The above radar loop will not be viewable after today, as it will fall off the 5-day archive.

  3. I'd like to see a sounding for northern Illinois the afternoon the F5 tornado hit Plainfield Illinois. There had to be a lot of instability that day, as I recall reports saying how hot and humid it was. The storm moved southeast, so it probably attained some enhanced SRH, so mid and upper winds may not have been too impressive. Still would be an interesting sounding I think.

  4. The above posted WRF model seems to agree with the HRRR. Looking at the amount of convection over the Mississippi Valley it's probably safe to say we're gonna see a lot of leftover convection early tomorrow. What's interesting is both the WRF and HRRR lay out an east/west boundary over central Mississippi and Alabama later tomorrow morning. This will no doubt retreat northward towards the Tennessee border by afternoon. This boundary may interact with and help enhance powerful supercells where it lays out tomorrow afternoon.

    cape_sfc_f15.png

  5. There continue to be some very critical differences between the NAM and GFS for tomorrow. Should be an interesting day to see how things evolve.

    The northern threat is definitely a bit tricky. The new GFS would indicate the best tornado parameters stay further south like some of the earlier NAM runs indicated. Areas of Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky are definitely looking like the most likely areas for significant severe tomorrow. Further north may have a lot to do with how tonight's convection evolves. That will no doubt influence exactly if and where that secondary low develops/evolves.

  6. Wow not often do you see such amazing shear coinciding with large instability like this.

    Yeah it's looking pretty ugly in that area.

    FWIW the long range RUC forecasts cape in excess of 5000j/kg in this highly sheared environment over northeast Texas late tomorrow. Likely overdone, but I'm sure we'll be seeing monster sups traversing northeast Texas/southeast Oklahoma later tomorrow....

    cape_sfc_f22.png

    cref_sfc_f24.png

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