cyclone77

Looks like the northwest edge of precip should stall about 20-30 miles east/southeast of here.  Got way closer than I figured it would.  

The new Euro gives Hawk 2-3 inches of post frontal snows Friday night.  Looks like a potential 1-2" for much of the DVN cwa, especially the Iowa side.

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Maybe Cuba can get some snow this winter.

lol.  I always thought it'd be pretty interesting to see a big snow hit south FL.  It's probably about a once in a few hundred year kind of thing but it's gotta be possible if the right setup came together.  

23 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Pretty rare to be watching a snowstorm miss me to the south in November. Expecting maybe a couple mood flakes here, unless that backside paper thin defo band comes to fruition. 

Yeah it's pretty strange indeed.  This will be the 2nd snow system to miss southeast and it's only mid November lol.  

BTW I can definitely see that thin defo band overachieve wherever it sets up later tonight/early tomorrow along the northwest edge.

4 hours ago, IWXwx said:

I agree about the price. If I were purchase a new station, I would probably go with the Vue. However, I am running a Vantage Pro that I purchased in 2003 and it still works. I did have to use some stuff to take the oxidation off of the solar panel once.

Definitely got your money's worth with that. 

7 hours ago, Hoosier said:

This really goes to town in the def band... even into northern IL.  I believe this is the hi-res version of the RGEM.

Wow, almost tries to pull a 12/01/06. 

24 minutes ago, Central Illinois said:

I wouldn’t be surprised if ILX extends the Winter Storm Watch up to I-72


.

Congrats!  You're sitting pretty.  

The wireless transmitter on my Davis VP2 died a few days ago.  Only a few years old.  Had the Davis Vue for 5 years with no issues, but have only had the VP2 a little over 2yrs before this issue.  Not too impressed.  It's about $120 for a new transmitter.  For those who are looking to buy the more expensive VP2, I'd just stick with the cheaper Vue.  It's not quite as accurate, but still pretty darn close.  The price difference really isn't worth it IMO.

The RGEM gets the snow pretty far north.  Gives Hoosier a few inches, and even Chicago gets a little cover.  Near warning criteria snows all the way up to near Lincoln.  

49 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

If not winter, then perhaps the biggest snow of the Fall.  

Haha!  Indeed.

Pretty odd looking system to be sure.  Folks in downstate IL should feel pretty fortunate to cash in on such a strange setup.  Could be the biggest snow of the whole winter down there. 

Had a little virga earlier.  Could almost smell the snowflakes. 

Patchy areas of snow still remain from the snowfall a few days back.  With temps pushing 40 today that will take care of the rest of that.  Should be it for snow for a few weeks.  Pattern looks pretty benign through at least Thanksgiving.

First subzero chill of the season early this morning at -2.  Actual temp hit 14.  Definitely not used to the cold yet, as it felt colder than it was.

Picked up about an inch here.  Was just warm enough that the snow never did accumulate on paved areas, which will make the morning commute a non-issue.  Some trees still have some leaves left, and with the snow caked to them it looks pretty nice.  

1 hour ago, ams30721us said:

Yep, snow started here in DVN about an 1/2 hour ago, and already any elevated or grassy surface is completely white. Roadways initially are just wet. Look forward to a nice blanket by morning! 

Oh yeah, will be nice to see in the morning.  It's been snowing pretty nicely here for about an hour.  It's not sticking to the paved areas yet but grassy/elevated surfaces are whitening up.  Looks like a tenth or two already.  Flakes are small, but it's pouring down pretty nicely.  

HRRR/RAP pretty consistent in showing around 0.15" of precip for the QCA.  Looks like a solid inch on the way, with perhaps up to 2" in any areas that get under some better bands.  Snow is about an hour or two away.

The Euro and GFS get an F for how they handled tomorrow's vort max.  Took them until within 36hrs of the event to get it right, while the 3km NAM was correct all along.  The Euro is definitely off to a rough start this season.  

1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The GFS is no longer on board, having just shifted west.

Yeah big change.  The GFS really screws both of us, as we now completely miss both tomorrow night's wave, and the Friday vort max as well.  I'm basically just gonna anticipate a few mood flakes from time to time from tomorrow night through Friday, and if anything more than that happens I'll consider it a win.  We had measurable snow almost a month ago, so this is pretty meh anyway.

Looks like a dusting to perhaps a half inch for this area from tomorrow night's wave.  RGEM continues to be the most bullish, but it's starting to back off a bit, and trends may continue with that.  Friday's potential is still up in the air.  3km NAM continues to insist the main threat with that will be way out in southwest IA/northern MO.  That's considerably different than what the Euro and GFS have been saying.  Usually you would side with the high-res models at this range, but the consistency of the Euro and GFS is interesting.  Of course the 3km NAM has been consistent as well.  Guess we'll see which one blinks first.  At the least we should get some snow showers and flurries Fri afternoon.  

The 06z RGEM looks really good for northern IL/southeast WI with 2-3" of snow tomorrow night.  It moves the snow in about 6hrs earlier than all the other models, and has a more intense snowfall in the comma head.  

The potent vort Friday is all over the place on the guidance.  The GFS has been pretty consistent in showing northern IA through central IL getting in on that.  The 3km is way further southwest, and impacts southwest IA down into MO.  That should be fun for whoever gets in on that, as it will likely have very intense snowfall rates/with wind for short periods of time.  

Looking forward to some mood flakes Thu night.  

Euro continues to trend towards weaker GFS with the Thu wave.  Looks like we may have ourselves a classic November mirage storm lol.  Looks like if anything should come from this wave the eastern sub will have the best shot at it.  Could be an interesting winter if the Euro loses to the GFS in the mid-range on a consistent basis.  

4 minutes ago, Jim Martin said:

More Fall Colors from yesterday.

Very nice!

8 hours ago, IllinoisWedges said:

Euro still looks good  

Kind of looks like some of the GFS runs from a few days ago.  It's still there, but definitely not as impressive.  Could it be the Euro is trending towards the GFS?  Doesn't seem to happen very often in the mid range at least. 

New GFS just in says what storm?