cyclone77

The coldest windchill by state thread needs to be renamed the zombie thread.  The thread that will not die.

This is more long term, but the Euro has been pretty consistent in showing big cape over the corn belt/Midwest later next week.  The 6000J/kg max value on WxBell is exceeded in some cases.  

Maybe since late May and June has had a mid to late August type pattern when we get to August maybe we'll get an active May-June type of pattern.  

4 hours ago, hlcater said:

Can we just fast forward to 2019? Let’s put this poor excuse for a season out of its misery.

This year has a chance at being the first that I haven't even gone on a backyard chase since 2005.  

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

cyclone -- I was looking at some stuff from the 1930s last night... and of course a lot of those heat records are crazy.  In July 1936, I noticed MLI had 11 consecutive days of 100+.  Maybe even more impressive was 9 straight days of lows of 80+.  I would consider both of those streaks to be virtually unbreakable, thanks in large part due to the better farming nowadays which tends to take the edge off the extreme high temps (at the expense of making it more muggy).

Wow, I can't imagine experiencing something like that.  Back then most people didn't have AC either, so sleeping had to be pretty difficult with such warm nighttime temps.

11 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Apparently the GFS knows the corn is running ahead of schedule in cyclone's area

1 hour ago, Knightking2018 said:

   I am trying to contact Christopher Burt a historian and I know several the morning record lows in Kansas on January 20, 1985. They are Lebo, Waverly, Melvern, and Lyndon which were all -23F.  Lebo and Waverly are in Coffey County. The other two are Cassoday and Matfield Green which both had record lows of -20F. Cassoday is in Butler County and Matfield Green is in Chase County. All of these places are near the I-35 corridor and winds were likely blowing between 15-25 mph. All of these are within a 35 mile or less radius of Empoia, Kansas. That would put the wind chills between -45F and -55F. So sorry for being a butt. Also Kirksville, Missouri can go back to -50F because I couldn't very the colder temp or stronger winds. 

Man, every time I see your user name this always pops in my head lol.

Think I'm gonna start a thread about record heat index temps next January.  

2 minutes ago, hlcater said:

That storm was a wall cloud party, I was there. Issue was that there were 2 separate surface circulations and both kept spitting out wall clouds and neither became dominant over the other. What we get then is a whole bunch of wall clouds that lack the "umpf" to get it done. What was interesting is that I initially started in Mason City and bagged a brief bird fart tornado up there. Only issue with these storms were that everything was super HP, apparently there were more tornadoes, but I couldn't see them. Then as those storms went outflow dominant, came back to CR for a bit before the Tama storm initiated, then headed back out again. This storm was thankfully more classic in nature and around sunset which made it better. All in all, pretty solid chase today.

Forest City bird fart tornado(if you look closely you can see debris above the road sign):

 

Pretty nice whales mouth near Mason City:

 

and just one of the MANY wall clouds the storm near Tama/Belle Plaine produced.

 

Well done.  Capturing even a "bird fart" tornado in 2018 is a pretty nice accomplishment.  

Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

Another tornado warning just west of CR, but doesn't look like it'll amount to much, like the first one earlier.

The couplets looked pretty nice on radar, nice and tight.  Problem is though the lowest beam height is over 5500ft out that way.  

6 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Woo!  It's not severe, but we're getting very heavy rain, with a bit of wind and a bit of pea size hail, and it's last for a while this time, not five minutes like every other cell this spring.

Very nice!  WAA wing storms exploding just west of here.  The cell just to the west has a small hail core already.  Could get interesting here sooner than I thought.

51 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

So far it has been a lot of lightning and a constant low rumble here in CR.  The action has been one county west, while the weakening blowoff rain moves east into CR.

Congrats!  Looks like you guys are getting some pretty nice action this eve.  

Have what may be the beginnings of a WAA wing from just east of the QC back up towards Maquoketa.  Thinking we're gonna get smacked here pretty good by the main line in a few hours.  

Some new cells starting to pop north of Grinnell down towards the better instability.  Nice ML LR plume nosing into the southern half of Iowa.  The southwesterly LLJ should keep things blowing up on the west side of the complex for much of the night.  Parts of eastern Iowa could really get dumped on tonight.  The LR plume and LLJ should keep the strongest storms right about where SPC has the enhanced placed IMO.  Waterloo/CR/Muscatine would be my favored area for the heaviest rains tonight.  

Those cells up near the MN border north of Riceville and Cresco are looking kind of interesting as well.  Another east/west convergent boundary in that area.

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

There's definitely a residual boundary this TOR warned cell is about to cross. Briefly though, as it's more N/S than E/W based on visible satellite. 

Subtle, but 91/67 at IFA, and 85/70 ALO

New cell popping just east of Aredale kind of along that same convergence zone.  That little convergence line snakes all the way towards Anamosa, and looks to be lifting slowly northward.  Wonder if we'll see more sups develop along that as the other storms build in from the northwest.  

3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

There's a bunch of big stuff from just west of Cedar Rapids over to central Iowa.  It is expected to dive south and miss CR.  It has been one of those years in which all the big stuff avoids my yard.  However, my garden could certainly do without the 70 mph wind and golfball size hail being reported.

Yeah it's been a very slow year.  Think we've been in a slight risk once, and it was walked back to a marginal the day of.  

1 hour ago, andyhb said:

Well that red colour looks nice...

Congrats! 

I can't remember seeing corn up as high as it is this early.  There's some fields where the corn is already knee high.  Soybeans are up and way ahead of schedule as well.  Pretty remarkable considering 6 weeks ago today we had accumulating snow lol.  

I'll be glad when Alberto is long gone and we can get into more of a traditional weather pattern for June.  Tropical remnants are fun for those who may be impacted by them, but otherwise it just constipates the weather pattern for the rest of us.  The traditional spring chase season was a trash heap, so hopefully the summer derecho season doesn't disappoint as well.

Constipated August-like pattern in May?  No thanks. 

3 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

It has been an incredibly boring storm season in my yard.  Some locations have had good storms, but there has been nothing widespread, leaving some of us with very little.

It's been a very strange stretch of weather from March through now.  Spring snows, and now this weird stagnant/constipated split flow BS.  Hopefully June makes up for it by featuring May flow over June instability.  That could be fun.

Pretty benign looking pattern for meaningful severe for the foreseeable future.  Hopefully June makes up for a very meh May.

10 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I saw this earlier on twitter and I couldn't believe it but it is true

Nearly 3 years since DTX/GRR has had a tornado watch issued.

That's freakin' crazy.

50 minutes ago, hlcater said:

First 2 initials and last name. Probably shoulda clarified that lol.

Ahhh, noice.

Rapid transition towards a more summery look continues.  The leaves on the trees are growing quite quickly, and should be pretty much full grown by later this week.  The wind makes more of a rustling type sound now as it blows through the trees instead of a dull roar like when they're bare.  

2 hours ago, hlcater said:

Changed my name to hlcater because quite frankly, my old one isn't really very practical any more, and probably never will be. This one is much more versatile.

Old name made more sense to me at least.  I have no idea what the hell hlcater is lol.