LVblizzard

Heaviest snow of the storm so far in the Lehigh Valley. Still not “heavy” snow by definition but it’s coming down at a pretty good clip.

Cutoff will probably hang out in Berks, into Schuylkill and Carbon counties overnight. I’m glad to be east of it even if I’m not getting in on the good stuff.

On my drive home to the Allentown suburbs it was snowing steadily, but lightly, the whole time. Snow is beginning to stick to the highways and main roads.

Each run of the HRRR just keeps getting better.

Steady light snow at my work in Bath. Ground covered. A bit surprising given the lack of radar returns here.

Storm definitely seems more juiced so far, especially when comparing the current radar to the hot garbage that was the 18z model suite.

HRRR has been trending better throughout the evening.

One good thing I’m seeing is that the precip off the NC coast is quite a bit more north and west than the 18z 3km NAM showed at 4 pm.

Really not liking the trends in the short-range mesos. The HRRR earlier today showed up to 4-5” in Allentown…now we’re barely seeing an inch.

Compare the 12z and 0z Euro precip maps. Very little difference in SE PA, even a bit more in eastern Bucks. It's a worse run for SNE and NYC but for us it's nothing to worry about.

Initial low confidence guess for the Lehigh Valley was 1-3"...maybe time to bump that up to 2-4" or 3-6"? Tomorrow's guidance is going to be important, as well as comparing tonight's models to tomorrow's observations in about 12-24 hours.

Regular NAM on top…and the 3km that came west as well

Well well well, hello there 0z NAM…

We actually have some pretty solid agreement now among the models not named the GFS.

Being in the Lehigh Valley sucks for this one…it might be one of those storms where NYC gets blasted and we just get some light snow.

CMC joins the west trend party. Apparently the GFS missed the memo tonight.

And the GFS says nah, I’ll go even farther east to spite the weenies. Lol

Anyone gonna make a thread for this storm? It seems likely that at the very least, the coast will get a snowstorm.

Well, the 12z NAM has suckered me back in…low is more tucked with more expansive precip. Big stripe of 2 feet+ from south Jersey to New England.

The GEFS had the storm a week and a half ago off the coast until like 2 days before. It ended up tracking straight through PA. This happens time and time again with its SE bias.

Last February’s storm was a textbook example of that. In Allentown it started snowing at around noon on Sunday, the heavy bands came all day Monday, and on Tuesday and Wednesday we picked up a few more inches as the low sat and spun to the east. The last flakes were at around 11 on Wednesday morning. That’s 71 hours from start to finish, and it was snowing for about 90% of that time frame. It’s easily up there with my favorite storms of all time, despite being stuck at work from Monday morning through Tuesday evening.

18z NAM ends just before it delivers a historic blizzard to the area. Damn what a good look.

This reminds me of tracking Juno exactly 7 years ago. The Euro was always the most amped and brought big snows to Philly and much of NJ, while the other models kept it a New England special. We all know how that one turned out…maybe the outcome can be different this time around.

Euro gives south Jersey over 3 feet (not exaggerating) on the weenie maps. 2 feet for Philly and NYC, and a foot plus towards the LV and Poconos. Would be an all-timer if it verified. Need to see other models join it, though…and the JMA doesn’t count.

Better hope the 12z CMC doesn’t verify. Gets sub-960 on the benchmark but says F you to anyone not on the coast.