I hate to say it but the GFS is out to lunch. It weakens the energy for no apparent reason which leads to a more strung-out and progressive solution. At the same time, I also think the NAM is too amped.
I’m liking a CMC/Euro type solution right now.
The GFS is nice but I’m suspicious with how weak it looks at 500mb. I think it’s up to its old tricks and moving the storm east off the coast too quickly.
Short range models are very interesting for the Lehigh Valley. Looks like we could see actual tropical storm force winds (not gusts) for a short time tomorrow. Which makes sense given that Isaias made landfall stronger than expected. Hoping the power stays on at home and work.
Back to all snow here in Bath. Wonder if it’ll stay that way for the rest of the storm. Some models showed a brief period of sleet but changed us back to snow.
I’m struggling to understand how much of eastern PA gets 6-12” on all these models. The low passes through upstate NY and the high is in an okay position, but not great. What am I missing here?
I’d say you guys are good for mostly snow from this. 3-6” and some freezing rain tomorrow morning. Models have been trending colder, they even keep Allentown mostly frozen now with a burst of heavy snow at the beginning.